Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:
86 – 73 Lihue, Kauai
89 – 73 Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 71 Molokai AP
88 – 68 Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 74 Kona AP
85 – 70 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Sunday evening:
1.42 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.52 Maunawili, Oahu
0.52 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.40 Ulupalakua, Maui
0.76 Papaikou Well, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Sunday evening:
22 Port Allen, Kauai
27 Kuaokala, Oahu
25 Molokai
22 Lanai
23 Kahoolawe
25 Maalaea Bay, Maui
25 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We see an early season storm and cold front to the north…along with Hurricane Orlene spinning in the eastern Pacific (I don’t see a threat to Hawaii from Orlene)
Tropical disturbance southwest of the state, sending high cirrus clouds our way…with showers on the horizon to the east
High cirrus clouds over the islands locally
Showers locally…which will be increasing – Looping radar image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Light to moderately strong trade winds…gradually becoming lighter. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1034 millibar high pressure system far to our northeast, the source of our local trades. Winds will become light enough to allow for local daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes…through the first half of the new week. As the winds become lighter, and relative humidity levels rise, we’ll find sultry conditions enveloping the state for many days. We can expect strengthening trade winds during the second half of the week.
Areas of low pressure are moving closer to the islands…which will bring an extended period of unsettled weather to Hawaii. This will result in the atmosphere becoming less stable, and more shower prone. Meanwhile, an area of moisture associated with a surface low near the state…will be spreading over us as well. We’ll find a prolonged period of off and on showers, along with spotty heavy rain at times too. This is the kind of situation that can spawn thunderstorms, which may lead to localized flooding issues here and there with time.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Marine environment details: Surf will remain rather small through tonight. A moderate northwest swell is expected to arrive late Monday, peak below the advisory threshold on Tuesday…and then slowly subside through Thursday. Another moderate northwest swell is possible next weekend. A moderate southwest swell will arrive late Monday and persist through Wednesday.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below headline thresholds through the middle of the week. High pressure building north of the state will increase trade winds late in the week into next weekend…with the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island reaching Small Craft Advisory levels.
Unsettled late summer weather…this week
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm (Ian) is now active in the central Atlantic, located approximately 1140 miles southeast of Bermuda. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
1.) Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a disturbance near the central and northwestern Bahamas. There are still no signs of a closed surface circulation, and conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and portions of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 16E (Orlene) is strengthening and is located approximately 720 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
1.) Poorly organized thunderstorms persist near a surface trough about 800 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Strong winds aloft are inhibiting development of the system as it drifts northwest.
This disturbance is being called Invest 93C, here’s a satellite image and what the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Super Typhoon 16W (Meranti) remains active, located approximately 457 NM south of Kadena AB. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Storm 18W remains active, located approximately 234 NM north of Fais. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map … a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing
Tropical Depression 19W remains active, located approximately 97 NM southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image … and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Calculating the role of lakes in global warming – As global temperatures rise, how will lake ecosystems respond? As they warm, will lakes — which make up only 3 percent of the landscape, but bury more carbon than the world’s oceans combined — release more of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane? And might that create a feedback loop that leads to further warming?
To predict the effects of rising air temperatures on the carbon cycle of lakes, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute researchers will link computer models of changing weather, water temperature, and emissions of carbon dioxide and methane for 2,000 lakes across the United States, including Lake George, through 2105. The project is supported with a $300,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, and led by Kevin Rose, an assistant professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Rensselaer and the Frederic R. Kolleck ’52 Career Development Chair in Freshwater Ecology.
“We know lakes are important in the global carbon cycle — absorbing and emitting carbon — and that’s critical to regulating global air temperatures. But we don’t know how the role of lakes will change as a result of rising air temperatures,” said Rose. “Right now, we can model changes for an individual lake — using characteristics like surface area, depth, water clarity, and temperature profile — but to be useful as a planning and research tool, we need to work on a much larger scale.”
Carbon enters a lake as organic matter (such as falling leaves or soil suspended in runoff) and is cycled through the food chain, feeding plants and then animals. Some carbon settles to the lake bottom and is buried in sediment, but some is released back into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane. As with all biological processes, lake emissions are temperature dependent, rising and falling along a temperature gradient. The challenge in predicting lake emissions for thousands of lakes across the country lies in the enormous variety of characteristics from lake to lake.
To tackle that challenge, the project will forecast future weather conditions for 2,000 lakes over the next 90 years using high-resolution weather forecasting models and projections of climate change provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
In the second phase of the project, the team will draw upon the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Lakes Assessment, a statistical survey that tracks chemical, biological, and physical characteristics of the target lakes. By feeding those characteristics and the forecast weather data into an existing open source hydrodynamic model, the team will generate predicted changes in lake thermal characteristics such as the temperature profile (mapping temperature according to depth), depth of temperature stratification, and ice cover.
The team is able to calibrate and validate the model by running the model back through time, as far back as 1979, and comparing their results with recorded weather and lake temperature data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System and the EPA National Lakes Assessment.
The team will then use the resulting lake temperature data to estimate changes in lake metabolism — the absorption versus emission of carbon — and seek to draw conclusions based on those estimates, such as differences based on region or specific characteristics of lakes.
“The goal is to close the loop between long-term changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, leading to global temperature increases, leading to changes in lake water temperature, leading to changes in the role of lakes in the global carbon cycle,” Rose said. “In other words, how much carbon dioxide is going to come out of lakes with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere — is there going to be positive feedback?”
Email Glenn James: 
