Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

82 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
83 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 77  Molokai AP
89 – 79  Kahului AP, Maui
90 – 79  Kona AP
88 – 75  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Sunday night:

3.36  Kilohana, Oahu
2.20  Makaha Stream, Oahu
0.50  Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.05  Kahoolawe
0.55  Mahinahina, Maui
0.37  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Sunday night:

24  Puu Lua, Kauai
23  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
23  Molokai
27  Lanai
27  Kahoolawe
20  Maalaea Bay, Maui
18  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Tropical Depression Ivette is still east-southeast of the islands…and will slide by south of the islands later this week

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Tropical Depression Ivette is on a rapid weakening trend

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What the computer models are showing for Tropical Depression Ivette, which will weaken to a remnant low pressure system soon

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This is Tropical Depression Ivette, as the associated thunderstorms move away from the center…carried by the shearing winds aloft

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Tropical Depression Ivette over the ocean to the east-southeast of Hawaii…with still some leftover thunderstorms from former Howard to the north of Kauai


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Former Howard moving away from Kauai, with thunderstorms to the northeast of the center

 

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Showers locally…some locally generous offshore – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…for the windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Strengthening trade winds Monday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing moderately strong high pressure systems well northwest and northeast of Hawaii. The forecast calls for our local winds to accelerate again now from the trade wind direction. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, the trades should strengthen a bit more. The latest models shows that Ivette will have been downgraded to a remnant low pressure system soon, now that its entered our central Pacific…from the eastern Pacific. As whatever is left of Ivette passes by to the south of the state, our local winds may become stronger from the trade wind direction towards mid-week or Thursday.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Former Howard…is slowly moving away towards the west of Hawaii. Deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Howard continues to move over the island chain, bringing sultry conditions our way. The bulk of this precipitation will take aim most effectively on the islands of Kauai and Oahu. This threat could include thunderstorms and possible flash flooding across some areas of the state. A more normal shower pattern will return later Monday into Wednesday…although not for long!

We could see yet another area of tropical moisture approaching the state around Wednesday night into Thursday…as whatever is left of Ivette moves into closer range. Based on what some of the models are suggesting, we could see Ivette bring the threat of more rainfall, and possibly breezy conditions. The good thing is that the forecast shows Ivette weakening further as it moves across our central Pacific. Ivette is expected to be retired, and lost it’s strong winds…while passing south of the islands. This southerly track may bring the northern fringe of rain mostly over the Big Island and perhaps Maui County. At the same time, it could trigger an acceleration of our trade winds then too.

It looks like Hawaii will finally return to a more normal summer weather pattern, after whatever is left of Ivette weakens, and its remnant low level circulation passes away to the west at some point later Thursday. This more seasonal pattern will include gusty trade winds and scattered low clouds, with our usual windward biased showers of course. This rather quiet period will likely last quite a while…for a change! This will be the result of a break from this almost constant parade of tropical cyclones, or their retired cloud swirls, which have been a part of our weather for the last month and more!

Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory remains posted for the coastal waters north and northwest of Kauai, as winds and seas associated with the remnants of Howard traverse westward across the area overnight. As the remnants of Howard move away to the west, high pressure far north of the state will once again usher in moderate trade winds, which may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria as early Monday over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. These conditions will likely persist into the middle of the week.

Buoy readings around the state indicate swells from Howard continue to diminish from east to west. Swells from Ivette will cause an increase in surf along east facing shores during the Monday night through Wednesday night time frame, possibly causing surf to reach advisory levels. The trades will also continue to produce choppy surf along east facing shores. There will also be a series of small south swells throughout the week with surf heights remaining below advisory levels.

 

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World-wide tropical cyclone activity

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a mid-level trough of low pressure. There are no signs of a surface circulation, and development of this system has become unlikely as the trough moves generally northward off of the coast of the southeastern United States.

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* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Javier remains active in the eastern Pacific…located 75 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, here’s a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP11/refresh/EP1116W_NL+gif/145053W_NL_sm.gif


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: 

Tropical Depression (Ivette) remains active in the central Pacific…located 935 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 07W (Omais) remains active in the northwestern Pacific, located about 230 NM east of Yokosuka…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm 08W is now active in the western Pacific, located about 364 NM west-southwest of Wake Island…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Subduction zone earthquakes off Oregon, Washington more frequent than previous estimates – A new analysis suggests that massive earthquakes on northern sections of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, affecting areas of the Pacific Northwest that are more heavily populated, are somewhat more frequent than has been believed in the past.

The chance of one occurring within the next 50 years is also slightly higher than previously estimated.

The findings, published this week in the journal Marine Geology, are based on data that is far more detailed and comprehensive than anything prior to this. It used measurements from 195 core samples containing submarine landslide deposits caused by subduction zone earthquakes, instead of only about a dozen such samples in past research.

The work was done by researchers from Oregon State University, Camosun College in British Columbia and Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra in Spain. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Geological Survey.

“These new results are based on much better data than has been available before, and reinforce our confidence in findings regarding the potential for major earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone,” said Chris Goldfinger, a professor in the College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences at OSU, and one of the world’s leading experts on tectonic activity of this subduction zone.

“However, with more detailed data we have also changed somewhat our projections for the average recurrence interval of earthquakes on the subduction zone, especially the northern parts. The frequency, although not the intensity, of earthquakes there appears to be somewhat higher than we previously estimated.”

The Cascadia Subduction Zone runs from northern California to British Columbia, and scientists say it can be roughly divided into four segments. There have been 43 major earthquakes in the past 10,000 years on this subduction zone, sometimes on the entire zone at once and sometimes only on parts of it. When the entire zone is involved, it’s believed to be capable of producing a magnitude 9.1 earthquake.

It’s been known for some time, and still believed to be accurate, that the southern portions of the subduction zone south of Newport, Oregon, tend to rupture more frequently – an average of about every 300-380 years from Newport to Coos Bay, and 220-240 years from Coos Bay to Eureka, California.

The newest data, however, have changed the stakes for the northern sections of the zone, which could have implications for major population centers such as Portland, Tacoma, Seattle and Vancouver, B.C.

A section of the zone from Newport to Astoria, Oregon, was previously believed to rupture on average about every 400-500 years, and that average has now been reduced to 350 years. A section further north from Astoria to Vancouver Island was previously believed to rupture about every 500-530 years, and that average has now been reduced to 430 years.

The last major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone – pinpointed in time because it caused a tsunami that raced all the way across the Pacific Ocean to Japan – occurred in January, 1700, more than 315 years ago.

“What this work shows is that, contrary to some previous estimates, the two middle sections of the Cascadia Subduction Zone that affect most of Oregon have a frequency that’s more similar than different,” said Goldfinger, who directs the Active Tectonics and Seafloor Mapping Laboratory at OSU.

Based on these findings, the chances of an earthquake in the next 50 years have also been slightly revised upwards. Of the part of the zone off central and northern Oregon, the chance of an event during that period has been changed to 15-20 percent instead of 14-17 percent. On the furthest north section of the zone off Washington and British Columbia, the chance of an event has increased to 10-17 percent from 8-14 percent.

The study also increased the frequency of the most massive earthquakes, where the entire subduction zone ruptures at once. It had previously been believed this occurred about half the time. Now, the data suggest that several partial ruptures were more complete than previously thought, and that complete ruptures occur slightly more than half the time.

“Part of what’s important is that these findings give us more confidence about what’s coming in our future,” Goldfinger said.

“We believed these earthquakes were possible when the hypothesis was first developed in the late 1980s. Now we have a great deal more certainty that the general concern about earthquakes caused by the Cascadia Subduction Zone is scientifically valid, and we also have more precise information about the earthquake frequency and behavior of the subduction zone.”

Based in part on the growing certainty about these issues, OSU has developed the Cascadia Lifelines Program, an initiative working with Pacific Northwest business and industry to help prepare for the upcoming subduction zone earthquake, mitigate damage and save lives. Many other programs are also gaining speed.

The new measurements in this research were made with cores that showed the results of massive amounts of sediments released by subsea landslides during a subduction zone earthquake – a catastrophic event beneath the sea as well as on land. New technology is helping researchers to actually simulate these underwater landslides, better understand their behavior, and more accurately identify the “turbidite” or sediment layers they leave behind.

The large amounts of additional data, researchers say, has helped refine previous work, fill holes in the data coverage, and also to rule out other possible causes of some sediment deposits, such as major storms, random landslides or small local earthquakes.