Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:

87 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 76  Molokai AP
91 – 70  Kahului AP, Maui record high Tuesday 94…back in 1968
88 – 75  Kona AP
84 – 69 
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Tuesday evening:

0.49  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.69  Poamoho RG 1,
Oahu
0.96  Molokai
0.15  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.67  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.61  Mountain View, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Tuesday evening:

21  Port Allen, Kauai
36  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27  Molokai
27  Lanai

30  Kahoolawe
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui

31  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Category 1 Hurricane Madeline and Category 4 Hurricane Lester are both moving in our general direction

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP13/refresh/EP1316W5+gif/143538W_sm.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Hurricane Madeline just east of Hawaii…with a tropical disturbance being referred to as Invest 92C well to the southwest of Kauai

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Showers will be on the increase with the approach of Hurricane Madeline…active thunderstorms located to the southwest of Kauai

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Close-up view of Madeline…Hawaii on the left

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Hurricane Madeline is on a steady weakening trend…as wind shear increases

 

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Showers are heading towards the islands from the east
Looping radar image

Hurricane Warningfor the Big Island of Hawaii [Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion]

Hurricane Warningfor Hawaiian Offshore waters [beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 NM]

 Tropical Storm WatchMaui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe [Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours]

Flash Flood Watch…IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND STARTING WEDNESDAY

High Surf WarningIS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI THROUGH THURSDAY

High Surf advisoryIS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, AND WEST MAUI

Small Craft AdvisoryIS IN EFFECT FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our trade winds will prevail tonight…with changes starting Wednesday for a few days. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1030 millibar high pressure system north-northeast of Hawaii. The trade winds will continue, with major changes in our wind conditions thereafter for several days in the southern part of the island chain. However, this will depend upon just how close Hurricane Madeline comes to the state…and the intensity of her winds too. The Big Island in particular could be looking at much stronger winds, as this tropical cyclone moves by just to the south.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

We’ll find showery weather arriving locally…as the clouds associated with Madeline begin arriving. We’ll move into a more significant period of change, with deep tropical moisture arriving soon through Thursday. This will be in association with Hurricane Madeline moving by close to our islands. This moisture will provide a wet period of late summer weather…with localized flooding issues very likely. Rainfall estimates run as high as 5-15 inches over parts of the Big Island, with 5+ inches over parts of Maui County. Then, towards the weekend, we’ll quite likely find another round of wet weather, or a continuation of the wet weather into the Labor Day Holiday weekend. This will be in response to Hurricane Lester sliding by offshore to our north. Finally on a more positive note, our weather is expected to improve beginning next Monday onward, which of course is the Labor Day holiday.

Hurricane Madeline will move dangerously close to the Big Island Wednesday and Wednesday night…with Hurricane Lester moving by very close to our north later in the week. Hurricane Madeline continues heading in the direction of Hawaii, and will remain at hurricane strength for the time being. We’ll begin to see changes in our local weather soon, continuing into Thursday. This will primarily occur over the Big Island…and to a somewhat lesser extent Maui County, and possibly the other islands. There’s a chance for tropical storm conditions to impact parts of the southernmost islands, which includes wind speeds of 39-73 mph…with flooding rainfall. Parts of the Big Island could experience a brief period of 74+ mph hurricane force winds. Looking further ahead, we’ll see Hurricane Lester moving by just to our north during the long Labor Day holiday weekend. I’ll have much more about Lester as we finish with Madeline…stay tuned.

There will be ongoing updates on changes and adjustments to the outlooks for these two approaching systems…stay tuned.

HAZARDS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS –

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to develop over Hawaii County as early as late Wednesday and continue into early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Maui County, including the islands of Maui Molokai and Lanai, late Wednesday into early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to build from east to west across the Hawaiian Islands, possibly becoming damaging along east facing shorelines of Hawaii County and eastern portions of the Island of Maui into Thursday.

RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Madeline are expected to reach Hawaii County Wednesday, and may impact other Hawaiian Islands later in the day through Thursday. Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, across the Big Island, especially over windward portions. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Madeline may produce up to 5+ inches of rainfall across Maui County. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: Depending on the track of Madeline, the combination of storm surge and tides could cause normally dry areas near the coast to become flooded. The water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground if peak surge were to coincide with high tide. The surge would be accompanied by large damaging surf and can vary over short distances.

Hurricane Force Winds in the past for Hawaii: Hurricane Iwa (passing just northwest of Kauai in 1982) and Hurricane Dot (landfall on Kauai in 1959) are examples of Category One hurricanes that directly impacted Hawaii. There is no record of a Category Two hurricane directly impacting Hawaii. There is no record of a Category Three hurricane directly impacting Hawaii. Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on Kauai in 1992, is an example of a Category Four hurricane at landfall in Hawaii. There is no record of a Category Five hurricane directly impacting Hawaii.

Marine environment details: Marine conditions will quickly begin to deteriorate as Hurricane Madeline approaches. Madeline is forecast to approach from the east, then pass near or just south of the southern Big Island waters late in the afternoon through the night. The latest advisory depicts the highest probabilities of hurricane force winds occurring over the windward waters…mostly to the east of Isaac Hale within the Puna District…and the southeast Big Island waters through this time. As a result, the hurricane warning will remain in place for these Big Island waters, which includes the Alenuihaha Channel. A tropical storm watch remains in place for the Maui County waters through this time.

As Madeline passes near and south of the Big Island and continues toward the west Thursday through Saturday, Hurricane Lester is forecast to approach from the east. Lester, currently centered around 1000 nautical miles east of Hilo, is forecast to track toward the Hawaiian waters over the weekend. Any shift toward the south or north could translate to significant forecast changes over the area waters. Regardless of the final track, seas out of the east, mainly due to a large easterly swell, will translate to hazardous boating conditions over all exposed eastern and northern waters through the weekend.

Surf will continue to quickly rise along the exposed eastern facing shores of each island, which is expected to correspond to advisory-level surf along east facing shores from western Maui to Kauai, and warning level surf over eastern Maui and the Big Island. The largest surf is expected over the windward Big Island waters through this time, which is expected to peak in the 15 to 25 foot range.

Surf along east facing shores associated with Madeline will ease or lower on Thursday for a brief period before rising once again in response to Hurricane Lester approaching the region from the east. Surf will likely reach warning levels along the exposed east facing shores of all islands over the weekend, if the current forecast remains in place. Any deviation to the north or south could significantly alter the surf conditions through this time.

Elsewhere, a small westerly swell is expected to fill in Friday into the weekend from distant tropical activity in the western Pacific. South facing shores will likely see a slight increase in surf as Madeline passes to the south Thursday through the weekend.

 

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Increasing showers, mostly over the windward sides…although not exclusively


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Major Hurricane 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located west of the central Azores…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0716W5+gif/203810W_sm.gif

Tropical Depression 08L remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 135 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0816W5_NL+gif/144332W5_NL_sm.gif

Tropical Depression 09L remains active, now moving into the Gulf of Mexico, located about 415 miles west-southwest of Tampa, Florida…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5+gif/205108W_sm.gif

 

1.) A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave is in an environment of very dry air, which should prevent any significant development for a few days. Some development is possible over the weekend when the wave nears the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…
medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Major Hurricane 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 1085 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model

1.)  A large area of disturbed weather has formed over the far eastern Pacific centered a few hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
:

Hurricane Madeline remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 230 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

1.) A surface low located around 600 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii is slowly tracking toward the west. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop around the low, but show little signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to inhibit tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days.

Here’s a satellite image of Invest 92C

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 30 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Depression 15W
is now active, located 289 NM northwest of south-southwest of Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image …and what the computer models are showing

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
No active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Study finds shark fins & meat contain high levels of neurotoxins linked to Alzheimer’s disease – In a new study, University of Miami (UM) scientists found high concentrations of toxins linked to neurodegenerative diseases in the fins and muscles of 10 species of sharks. The research team suggests that restricting consumption of sharks can have positive health benefits for consumers and for shark conservation, since several of the sharks analyzed in the study are threatened with extinction due to overfishing.

Fins and muscle tissue samples were collected from 10 shark species found in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for concentrations of two toxins–mercury and ?-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA). “Recent studies have linked BMAA to neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS),” said Deborah Mash, Professor of Neurology and senior author of the study.

Researchers at the UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and UM Miller School of Medicine detected concentrations of mercury and BMAA in the fins and muscles of all shark species at levels that may pose a threat to human health. While both mercury and BMAA by themselves pose a health risk, together they may also have synergistic toxic impacts.

“Since sharks are predators, living higher up in the food web, their tissues tend to accumulate and concentrate toxins, which may not only pose a threat to shark health, but also put human consumers of shark parts at a health risk,” said the study’s lead author Neil Hammerschlag, a research assistant professor at the UM Rosenstiel School and UM Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy.

Shark products including shark fins, cartilage and meat are widely consumed in Asia and globally in Asian communities, as a delicacy and as a source of traditional Chinese medicine. In addition, dietary supplements containing shark cartilage are consumed globally.

Recently scientists have found BMAA in shark fins and shark cartilage supplements. The neurotoxic methyl mercury has been known to bioaccumulate in sharks over their long lifespans.

About 16 percent of the world’s shark species are threatened with extinction. The shark species sampled in this study range in threat status from least concern (bonnethead shark) to endangered (great hammerhead) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

“Our results suggest that humans who consume shark parts may be at a risk for developing neurological diseases.” said Mash.

“People should be aware and consider restricting consumption of shark parts. Limiting the consumption of shark parts will have positive health benefits for consumers and positive conservation outcomes for sharks, many of which are threatened with extinction due in part to the growing high demand for shark fin soup and, to a lesser extent, for shark meat and cartilage products.” said Hammerschlag.