Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

87 – 78  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 74  Molokai AP
88 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 76  Kona AP
82 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Monday evening:

0.91  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.29  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.28  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.17  Puu Kukui, Maui
2.50  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Monday evening:

31  Port Allen, Kauai
37  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
30  Molokai
31  Lanai
35  Kahoolawe
33  Maalaea Bay, Maui
31  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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Category 3 Hurricane Madeline and Category 3 Hurricane Lester are both moving in our direction

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Hurricane Madeline east of Hawaii…with a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 92C well to the south-southwest of Kauai

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Close-up view of Madeline…with a faint eye feature

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Looping mode of Hurricane Madeline

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A mix of clear skies and clouds tonight with just a few showers, while approaching Hurricane Madeline is spinning into the picture…along with active thunderstorms located to the south-southwest of Kauai

 

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Just a few showers locally – Looping radar image

Hurricane Watch…for the Big Island of Hawaii [A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (39-73 mph)…WHICH MAKE CONTINUING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DANGEROUS. A WATCH IS THE TIME TO PREPARE]

Hurricane Warning…for Hawaiian Offshore waters [beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 NM]

Tropical Storm Warning…for the Big Island / Tropical Storm Watch…Maui

 Flash Flood Watch…IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT

 High Surf Warning…IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

 High Surf advisory…IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, AND WEST MAUI

 Small Craft Advisory…IS IN EFFECT FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our trade winds will prevail through Tuesday…with changes by mid-week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1027 millibar high pressure system north of Hawaii. The trade winds will continue during this first part of the week, with potentially major changes in our wind conditions thereafter for several days. This will depend upon just how close Hurricane Madeline comes to the state…and the intensity of her winds then too. The Big Island in particular could be looking at much stronger winds, as this tropical cyclone moves by just to the south of the state.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

We’ll find relatively dry weather into early Tuesday morning…before showery/rainy weather arrives through Thursday. Satellite imagery suggests that showers will back-off for the time being…with a temporary break into early Tuesday. Thereafter, we’ll be in store for a pronounced change, with deep tropical moisture arriving during the day Tuesday through Thursday. This will be in association with Hurricane Madeline moving by close to our islands. This moisture will provide a wet period of summer weather…with localized flooding issues very likely. Rainfall estimates run as high as 15 inches over parts of the Big Island, with possible 5-10 inches over parts of the smaller islands. Then, later in the week towards the weekend, we’ll quite likely find more wet weather, or a continuation of the wet weather into the Labor Day Holiday weekend…as Hurricane Lester gets into range then.

Hurricane Madeline will move dangerously close to the Big Island Wednesday and Wednesday night…with Hurricane Lester potentially moving by just to our north later in the week. Hurricane Madeline continues heading in the direction of Hawaii, and will remain at hurricane strength through mid-week. The way it looks now, we will see a change in our local weather Tuesday into Thursday, primarily over the Big Island…and to a somewhat lesser extent Maui County and the other islands. There’s a chance for tropical storm conditions to impact parts of the southernmost islands, which includes wind speeds of 39-73 mph…with flooding rainfall. Parts of the Big Island could experience hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. Looking further ahead, we’ll see Hurricane Lester getting close to the islands, or moving by just to our north during the long Labor Day holiday weekend. There will be ongoing updates on changes and adjustments to the outlooks for these two approaching systems…stay tuned.

HAZARDS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS –

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii County on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Madeline are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days, possibly becoming damaging along some coastlines Wednesday and Thursday.

RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Madeline may reach Hawaii County Wednesday, and may impact other Hawaiian Islands later Wednesday into Friday. Madeline is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 15 inches, especially over windward portions of the Big Island. This rainfall may lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Hurricane Force Winds in Hawaii: Hurricane Iwa (passing just northwest of Kauai in 1982) and Hurricane Dot (landfall on Kauai in 1959) are examples of Category One hurricanes that directly impacted Hawaii. There is no record of a Category Two hurricane directly impacting Hawaii. There is no record of a Category Three hurricane directly impacting Hawaii. Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on Kauai in 1992, is an example of a Category Four hurricane at landfall in Hawaii. There is no record of a Category Five hurricane directly impacting Hawaii. 

Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for Maalaea Bay and the Alenuihaha and Pailolo channels through tonight. There may be a slight downward trend in winds on Tuesday, but they should pick up once again by mid week as Hurricane Madeline approaches from the east. Depending on the eventual track of Madeline, a Tropical Storm or Hurricane watch may be needed for portions of the marine area later today.

No significant swells are expected through tonight, although surf along east facing shores will be slightly elevated due to the moderate trades. Winds and seas, as well as surf along east facing shores, will increase from east to west late Tuesday and Tuesday night with the approach of Madeline. The east swell will likely peak at warning levels for east facing shores Wednesday into Wednesday night. We will also start to see a swell from Hurricane Lester beginning Wednesday night or Thursday, with surf heights building into the weekend, possibly to warning levels along east facing shores once again. In addition, surf will build along west facing shores from distant Typhoon Lionrock in the western Pacific Wednesday night and Thursday, peaking Thursday night through Friday night just below advisory levels.

 

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Drier weather for the time being


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

 Hurricane 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 695 miles east of Bermuda…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

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Tropical Depression 08L remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 70 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

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Tropical Depression 09L remains active, now moving into the Gulf of Mexico, located about 340 miles west of Key West, Florida…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

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1.)  A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for some gradual development of this system late this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 1355 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model

2.) An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the south-central coast of Mexico around the end of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development of this system while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane Madeline remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 445 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models

1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 500 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continue to develop. Development, if any, would be slow to occur as this area slowly drifts west.

Here’s a satellite image of Invest 92C

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 30 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located 47 NM west-northwest of Misawa, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image , and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Study finds shark fins & meat contain high levels of neurotoxins linked to Alzheimer’s disease – In a new study, University of Miami (UM) scientists found high concentrations of toxins linked to neurodegenerative diseases in the fins and muscles of 10 species of sharks. The research team suggests that restricting consumption of sharks can have positive health benefits for consumers and for shark conservation, since several of the sharks analyzed in the study are threatened with extinction due to overfishing.

Fins and muscle tissue samples were collected from 10 shark species found in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans for concentrations of two toxins–mercury and ?-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA). “Recent studies have linked BMAA to neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS),” said Deborah Mash, Professor of Neurology and senior author of the study.

Researchers at the UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and UM Miller School of Medicine detected concentrations of mercury and BMAA in the fins and muscles of all shark species at levels that may pose a threat to human health. While both mercury and BMAA by themselves pose a health risk, together they may also have synergistic toxic impacts.

“Since sharks are predators, living higher up in the food web, their tissues tend to accumulate and concentrate toxins, which may not only pose a threat to shark health, but also put human consumers of shark parts at a health risk,” said the study’s lead author Neil Hammerschlag, a research assistant professor at the UM Rosenstiel School and UM Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy.

Shark products including shark fins, cartilage and meat are widely consumed in Asia and globally in Asian communities, as a delicacy and as a source of traditional Chinese medicine. In addition, dietary supplements containing shark cartilage are consumed globally.

Recently scientists have found BMAA in shark fins and shark cartilage supplements. The neurotoxic methyl mercury has been known to bioaccumulate in sharks over their long lifespans.

About 16 percent of the world’s shark species are threatened with extinction. The shark species sampled in this study range in threat status from least concern (bonnethead shark) to endangered (great hammerhead) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

“Our results suggest that humans who consume shark parts may be at a risk for developing neurological diseases.” said Mash.

“People should be aware and consider restricting consumption of shark parts. Limiting the consumption of shark parts will have positive health benefits for consumers and positive conservation outcomes for sharks, many of which are threatened with extinction due in part to the growing high demand for shark fin soup and, to a lesser extent, for shark meat and cartilage products.” said Hammerschlag.