Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:
85 – 74 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 74 Molokai AP
86 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 78 Kona AP
82 – 70 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Sunday evening:
3.95 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.31 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
2.31 Molokai
0.03 Lanai
0.01 Kahoolawe
4.01 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.07 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Sunday evening:
31 Port Allen, Kauai
38 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27 Molokai
31 Lanai
32 Kahoolawe
27 Maalaea Bay, Maui
29 Waikoloa, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hurricane Madeline and Hurricane Lester moving in our general direction
Hurricane Madeline east-southeast of Hawaii
Close-up view of Madeline
Looping mode of Hurricane Madeline
Partly to mostly cloudy, with the outer edge of showery clouds associated with Hurricane Madeline coming into view on the right…with active thunderstorms to the south of the state
Showers locally…some are locally quite heavy – Looping radar image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our trade winds will prevail through about Tuesday…with likely changes by mid-week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong near 1030 millibar high pressure system far north of Hawaii. The trade winds will continue into the first few days of this new week, with some changes in our local wind conditions thereafter for several days. This will depend upon how close tropical storm Madeline comes to the state…and the intensity of her winds then too. We may be looking at stronger winds for several days, as this storm potentially moves close to the state.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
We’ll find somewhat drier weather Monday…before more showery weather arrives Tuesday through Thursday. After lots of showers Sunday in many parts of the state, satellite imagery suggests that showers will begin to finally start to back off…with a temporary break in the recent numerous showers Monday into the early part of Tuesday. Thereafter, we’ll be in store for a pronounced change, with deep tropical moisture arriving through Thursday or so. This would be in association with tropical storm Madeline moving by just south of our islands. This northern fringe of moisture will provide a wet period of summer weather…with possible localized flooding issues.
Madeline will move by…just to the south of the Big Island. Hurricane Madeline continues heading in the general direction of the Hawaiian Islands, and will be at hurricane strength today through mid-week. The way it looks now, we could see a change in our local weather Wednesday into Thursday. There’s a chance for tropical storm conditions to impact parts of the state, which includes wind speeds of 39+ mph, or even hurricane force winds of 74 mph…with flooding rainfall locally. Looking even further ahead, we may see whatever is left of Hurricane Lester getting close to the islands, or moving by a bit to our north later in the Labor Day holiday weekend. There will be ongoing changes and adjustments to the outlooks on these two approaching systems, as we move forward…stay tuned.
Marine environment details: With no strengthening expected, the small craft advisory has been dropped over the eastern end of the chain. Depending on the eventual track of Tropical Storm Madeline, a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for portions of the marine area within the next day or so.
No significant swells are expected through Monday, though surf along east facing shores will be slightly elevated due to the trades. Winds and seas, as well as surf along east facing shores, will increase from east to west late Tuesday with the approach of TS Madeline. The east swell may peak Wednesday, and heights will depend on the eventual track and intensity of the system. However, surf up to Warning Levels along east facing shores is possible. We may also start to see a swell from Hurricane Lester as early as Wednesday or Thursday…with heights building into the weekend.
Friday Evening Film: I went to see one called Jason Bourne, starring Matt Damon, Tommy Lee Jones, Alicia Vikander, Vincent Cassel, Julia Stiles, and Riz Ahmed...among many others. The synopsis: It’s been 10 years since Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) walked away from the agency that trained him to become a deadly weapon. Hoping to draw him out of the shadows, CIA director Robert Dewey assigns hacker and counterinsurgency expert Heather Lee to find him. Lee suspects that former operative Nicky Parsons is also looking for him. As she begins tracking the duo, Bourne finds himself back in action battling a sinister network that utilizes terror and technology to maintain unchecked power.
This was a very good film, which I thoroughly enjoyed…and was surprised that the critics didn’t give it a higher grade. The long and short of it was that I was entertained, although there were a few moments that were a bit too slow. Far and away, Matt Damon carried the film, although I was quite taken by both Tommy Lee Jones and Alicia Vikander as well. You know, now that I’m going over the film in my memory, I wasn’t all that taken by the outlandish car chase scenes either. So, what kind of grade am I going to give it? I’m thinking a strong B+ probably gets at it pretty well, all things considered. Here’s the trailer, and oh by the way…this is a full-on action film!
Windward showers…extending over into the leeward sections locally
World-wide tropical cyclone activity…
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Major Hurricane 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 560 miles east of Bermuda…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Tropical Depression 08L is now active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 180 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
Tropical Depression 09L remains active, now moving into the Gulf of Mexico, located about 170 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
1.) A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa later today or tonight. Conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the central coast of Texas is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the system drifts southwestward during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 1290 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model
1.) A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific:
Hurricane Madeline remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located about 695 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s a satellite image…along with computer models
1.) A weak low 500 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to produce disorganized convection. Development, if any, would be slow to occur as this area slowly drifts west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located 241 NM southeast of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image , and what the computer models are showing
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice – This year’s melt season in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas started with a bang, with a record low maximum extent in March and relatively rapid ice loss through May. The melt slowed down in June, however, making it highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record.
Youtube video: Arctic Sea Ice from March to August 2016
“Even when it’s likely that we won’t have a record low, the sea ice is not showing any kind of recovery. It’s still in a continued decline over the long term,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It’s just not going to be as extreme as other years because the weather conditions in the Arctic were not as extreme as in other years.”
“A decade ago, this year’s sea ice extent would have set a new record low and by a fair amount. Now, we’re kind of used to these low levels of sea ice – it’s the new normal.”
This year’s sea ice cover of the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia opened up early, in April, exposing the surface ocean waters to the energy from the sun weeks ahead of schedule. By May 31, the extent of the Arctic sea ice cover was comparable to end-of-June average levels. But the Arctic weather changed in June and slowed the sea ice loss. A persistent area of low atmospheric pressure, accompanied by cloudiness, winds that dispersed ice and lower-than-average temperatures, didn’t favor melt.
The rate of ice loss picked up again during the first two weeks of August, and is now greater than average for this time of the year. A strong cyclone is moving through the Arctic, similar to one that occurred in early August 2012. Four years ago, the storm caused an accelerated loss of ice during a period when the decline in sea ice is normally slowing because the sun is setting in the Arctic. However, the current storm doesn’t appear to be as strong as the 2012 cyclone and ice conditions are less vulnerable than four years ago, Meier said.
“This year is a great case study in showing how important the weather conditions are during the summer, especially in June and July, when you have 24 hours of sunlight and the sun is high in the sky in the Arctic,” Meier said. “If you get the right atmospheric conditions during those two months, they can really accelerate the ice loss. If you don’t, they can slow down any melting momentum you had. So our predictive ability in May of the September minimum is limited, because the sea ice cover is so sensitive to the early-to-mid-summer atmospheric conditions, and you can’t foresee summer weather.”
As scientists are keeping an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover, NASA is also preparing for a new method to measure the thickness of sea ice – a difficult but key characteristic to track from orbit.
“We have a good handle on the sea ice area change,” said Thorsten Markus, Goddard’s cryosphere lab chief. “We have very limited knowledge how thick it is.”
Research vessels or submarines can measure ice thickness directly, and some airborne instruments have taken readings that can be used to calculate thickness. But satellites haven’t been able to provide a complete look at sea ice thickness in particular during melting conditions, Markus said. The radar instruments that penetrate the snow during winter to measure thickness don’t work once you add in the salty water of the melting sea ice, since the salinity interferes with the radar.
The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2, or ICESat-2, will use lasers to try to get more complete answers of sea ice thickness. The satellite, slated to launch by 2018, will use a laser altimeter to measure the heights of Earth’s surface.
In the Arctic, it will measure the elevation of the ice floes, compared to the water level. However, only about one-tenth of sea ice is above the water surface; the other nine-tenths lie below.
To estimate the entire thickness of the ice floe, researchers will need to go beyond the above-water height measurements, and perform calculations to account for factors like the snow on top of the ice and the densities of the frozen layers. Scientists are eager to see the measurements turned into data on sea ice thickness, Markus said.
“If we want to estimate mass changes of sea ice, or increased melting, we need the sea ice thickness,” he said. “It’s critically important to understanding the changes in the Arctic.”
J Says:
Aloha Glenn,
I will be arriving in Maui on Tuesday September 6, staying in Kihei. It looks like the hurricane activity will be over by the time I arrive but I’m wondering if I should consider changing my destination. J
~~~ Hi J, that’s a reasonable question, and the short and simple answer is: I wouldn’t change my planned destination.
I’d say come ahead, and have a great time!
Aloha, Glenn
Josh Says:
Aloha Glenn – thank you for your weather report, which I enjoy reading all the way from Washington, DC. I’m due to arrive in Kauai on Thursday, and I wonder whether this western side of the state will be impacted by the higher humidity and showers from the hurricanes passing south of the Big Island. Thank you!
~~~ Hi Josh, there will be just one hurricane or tropical storm moving by south of the state, which will be Madeline. Kauai will be the best place to be, at least the way it looks at the moment, and should have the least influence of inclement weather conditions.
During the upcoming weekend, hurricane or tropical storm Lester will be moving by to the north of the state, at least that’s how it looks from here. Lester might be the storm that gives you some wind and rain…although you can always hunker down for a day or so as it moves by.
Best of luck!
Aloha, Glenn
Warren Priest Says:
How do I get your weather reports daily
~~~ Hi Warren, it’s simple, just log onto my website…updated many times each day.
http://www.hawaiiweathertoday.com/glenns-daily-weather-narrative/
Thanks for your interest!
Aloha, Glenn
Eliza Says:
Mahalo nui loa for the links, Glenn. I doubt if I’ll head up. Seems to be my luck some times with these planetary events and our weather. I did see them at the full moon, when they were separated by quite a few degrees. Best evening to you.
~~~ Hi Eliza, yep, it’s been raining steadily, over an inch here at my place Kula this afternoon…still cloudy and coming down. It might clear after sunset, keep an eye out.
Aloha, Glenn
Edward Block Says:
Hello,
I am looking ahead to next August, thinking about returning to celebrate 50 years since our honeymoon in Hawaii.
In those days we went to every island…those days are over.
Which island is likely to have the “oerfect weather ” at the end of August? Perfect = no rain…warm temps & sun
~~~ Hi Edward, good question, perhaps the million dollar question for many. In the old days I would say just about any island, at least along the leeward sides…would be warm, not to mention dry during the end of August.
These days, hmmmm, not such an easy and straight forward answer I’m afraid. So, with that being said, Lahaina and Kihei are usually good and warm and dry, and typically Kona too, and of course Waikiku and the leeward side of Kauai. I’ll still go with any island, warm sunny and dry.
Best of luck, you’ve been coming for so long now…that’s so great!
Aloha, Glenn