Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

86 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 74  Molokai AP
89 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui 
87 – 77  Kona AP
84 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Friday evening:

0.35  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.15  Ahuimanu Loop, Oahu
0.15  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.76  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.50  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Friday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
31  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25  Molokai
28  Lanai
31  Kahoolawe
30  Maalaea Bay, Maui
31  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A cold front to our northwest…with Tropical Storm Madeline and Hurricane Lester moving slowly westward in the eastern Pacific

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Thunderstorms southwest through southeast of the islands…along with Tropical Storm Madeline to the east-southeast

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Clear to partly cloudy with cloudy areas

 

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Showers…generally windward and offshore waters – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our trade winds will be locally quite strong…prevailing through the weekend into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong near 1035 millibar high pressure system far north of Hawaii. The trade winds will continue into the first few days of next week…with some probable changes in our local wind conditions thereafter for several days. This will depend upon how close tropical cyclone Madeline comes to the state, and the intensity of her winds then too.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

As we move through this weekend into early next week…we’ll find a typical summertime weather pattern. This generally pleasant weather will prevail through the first day or two of next week. Thereafter, we could be in store for a change, with possible deep tropical moisture arriving around Wednesday into the second half of next week. This would be in association with a tropical cyclone moving closer to our islands then.

Computer models show tropical cyclone activity…moving into the central Pacific during the next week. Although the models show tropical systems remaining to the east of the Hawaiian Islands through around Tuesday or Wednesday, we’ll need to closely monitor this situation. Hurricane Lester remains active, while Tropical Storm Madeline remains active as well…both of which are generally heading in the direction of the Hawaiian Islands. The way it looks from here, we could see areas of tropical moisture arriving over or around the middle of next week. The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking these systems now, but the first of these should cross into our Central Pacific as early as Saturday. There’s more information below…

Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for waters around Maui county and the Big Island, due to locally breezy trade winds accelerating around the high terrain. Winds may briefly and slightly ease a little Saturday before increasing a little Sunday and Monday. The slight drop in wind speeds does not appear likely to allow winds to drop below SCA speeds, and the SCA has been extended through Sunday.

No significant swells are expected through the middle of next week, and biggest waves will be surf along east facing shores. However, a limited fetch of trade winds upstream of the islands will preclude surf heights from growing significantly. Winds and seas, as well as surf along east facing shores, may increase toward the middle and end of next week, with increasing potential for high surf along east facing shores. The sources for surf include distant Tropical Cyclone Lester and closer Tropical Cyclone 14E…thus introducing a higher than normal amount of uncertainty to the surf forecast.

Friday Evening Film: I’ll go to see a film that I’ve been looking forward to for quite some time, and having been seen the whole series. It’s called Jason Bourne, starring Matt Damon, Tommy Lee Jones, Alicia Vikander, Vincent Cassel, Julia Stiles, and Riz Ahmed...among many others. The synopsis: It’s been 10 years since Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) walked away from the agency that trained him to become a deadly weapon. Hoping to draw him out of the shadows, CIA director Robert Dewey assigns hacker and counterinsurgency expert Heather Lee to find him. Lee suspects that former operative Nicky Parsons is also looking for him. As she begins tracking the duo, Bourne finds himself back in action battling a sinister network that utilizes terror and technology to maintain unchecked power.

This was a very good film, I thoroughly enjoyed it, and was glad that it didn’t leave the island before I saw it. I was surprised that the critics didn’t give it higher grades, although what do I know about such things. The long and short of it was that I was entertained, although there were a few moments, with characters sitting in front of computers screens, figuring things out a bit too much perhaps. Far and away, Matt Damon carried the film, although I was quite taken by both Tommy Lee Jones and Alicia Vikander as well. You know, now that I’m going over the film in my memory, I wasn’t all that taken by the outlandish car chase scenes either. So, what kind of grade am I going to give it? I’m thinking a strong B+ probably gets at it pretty well, all things considered. Here’s the trailer, and oh by the way…this is a full on action film!  

 

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Generally nice weather through this weekend…into early in the new week


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models

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1.) An area of low pressure centered about 130 miles southwest of Bermuda is producing winds of around 35 mph. While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little near the center during the past few hours, any significant development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air. This low is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A weak area of low pressure located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph.

Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later this weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

This area is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…and what the models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A weak trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 645 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model

Tropical Storm 14E (Madeline) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 1135 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model

1.)  A broad area of cloudiness and scattered shower activity is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for some slow development of this system after the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located 698 NM south-southwest of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image , with what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice – This year’s melt season in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas started with a bang, with a record low maximum extent in March and relatively rapid ice loss through May. The melt slowed down in June, however, making it highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record.

Youtube video: Arctic Sea Ice from March to August 2016

“Even when it’s likely that we won’t have a record low, the sea ice is not showing any kind of recovery. It’s still in a continued decline over the long term,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It’s just not going to be as extreme as other years because the weather conditions in the Arctic were not as extreme as in other years.”

“A decade ago, this year’s sea ice extent would have set a new record low and by a fair amount. Now, we’re kind of used to these low levels of sea ice – it’s the new normal.”

This year’s sea ice cover of the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia opened up early, in April, exposing the surface ocean waters to the energy from the sun weeks ahead of schedule. By May 31, the extent of the Arctic sea ice cover was comparable to end-of-June average levels. But the Arctic weather changed in June and slowed the sea ice loss. A persistent area of low atmospheric pressure, accompanied by cloudiness, winds that dispersed ice and lower-than-average temperatures, didn’t favor melt.

The rate of ice loss picked up again during the first two weeks of August, and is now greater than average for this time of the year. A strong cyclone is moving through the Arctic, similar to one that occurred in early August 2012. Four years ago, the storm caused an accelerated loss of ice during a period when the decline in sea ice is normally slowing because the sun is setting in the Arctic. However, the current storm doesn’t appear to be as strong as the 2012 cyclone and ice conditions are less vulnerable than four years ago, Meier said.

“This year is a great case study in showing how important the weather conditions are during the summer, especially in June and July, when you have 24 hours of sunlight and the sun is high in the sky in the Arctic,” Meier said. “If you get the right atmospheric conditions during those two months, they can really accelerate the ice loss. If you don’t, they can slow down any melting momentum you had. So our predictive ability in May of the September minimum is limited, because the sea ice cover is so sensitive to the early-to-mid-summer atmospheric conditions, and you can’t foresee summer weather.”

As scientists are keeping an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover, NASA is also preparing for a new method to measure the thickness of sea ice – a difficult but key characteristic to track from orbit.

“We have a good handle on the sea ice area change,” said Thorsten Markus, Goddard’s cryosphere lab chief. “We have very limited knowledge how thick it is.”

Research vessels or submarines can measure ice thickness directly, and some airborne instruments have taken readings that can be used to calculate thickness. But satellites haven’t been able to provide a complete look at sea ice thickness in particular during melting conditions, Markus said. The radar instruments that penetrate the snow during winter to measure thickness don’t work once you add in the salty water of the melting sea ice, since the salinity interferes with the radar.

The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2, or ICESat-2, will use lasers to try to get more complete answers of sea ice thickness. The satellite, slated to launch by 2018, will use a laser altimeter to measure the heights of Earth’s surface.

In the Arctic, it will measure the elevation of the ice floes, compared to the water level. However, only about one-tenth of sea ice is above the water surface; the other nine-tenths lie below.

To estimate the entire thickness of the ice floe, researchers will need to go beyond the above-water height measurements, and perform calculations to account for factors like the snow on top of the ice and the densities of the frozen layers. Scientists are eager to see the measurements turned into data on sea ice thickness, Markus said.

“If we want to estimate mass changes of sea ice, or increased melting, we need the sea ice thickness,” he said. “It’s critically important to understanding the changes in the Arctic.”