Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

86 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 75  Molokai AP
90 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui – record high Thursday 94…in 1996
90 – 79  Kona AP
87 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Thursday evening:

0.04  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.24  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.16  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.32  Glenwood, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday evening:

24  Port Allen, Kauai
44  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27  Molokai
31  Lanai
27  Kahoolawe
33  Maalaea Bay, Maui
30  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

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A cold front to our northwest…with Tropical Storm Lester moving slowly westward in the eastern Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Dynamic thunderstorms south and southeast of the islands

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy with cloudy areas…especially around the Big Island

 

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Showers…mostly around the Big Island and east Maui – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Our winds will be increasing…prevailing through the weekend into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a very strong near 1041 millibar high pressure system far northeast of Hawaii. During this second half of the week, more normal trade winds will prevail…taking the edge off the recent muggy weather. These trade winds will continue into the first several days of next week, with some probable changes thereafter for several days.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

As we move through the rest of the week, we’ll see the return of stronger trade winds, with a more typical summertime weather pattern. This generally pleasant weather will prevail through the first several days of next week. Thereafter, we could be in store for another change, with possible deep tropical moisture arriving, during the later part of next week. This would be in association with a tropical cyclone or two…moving closer to our islands.

Computer models show the potential for tropical cyclone activity…moving into the central Pacific. Although the model solutions show any tropical systems remaining to the east of the Hawaiian Islands through next Tuesday or Wednesday, we’ll need to closely monitor the areas of disturbed weather currently in the eastern Pacific…as they head westward. There’s an area of disturbed weather currently active in the eastern Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 98E. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lester remains active…and generally heading in the directions of the Hawaiian Islands. The way it looks from here, we could see slugs of tropical moisture arriving over or around the state towards the later part of next week. The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking these systems now, but the first of these systems could cross into the Central Pacific as early as Sunday. There’s more information below…

Marine environment details: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the traditionally windy waters around Maui and the Big Island, thanks to strengthening trade winds. This advisory is in effect through Friday afternoon, but will likely have to be extended in some form through the weekend.

Trade wind generated swell will increase surf slightly along eastern facing shores Friday into the weekend. Otherwise, no significant surf is expected through early next week. By the middle of next week, easterly swell generated by potential tropical cyclone activity east of Hawaii may begin to affect the state.

 

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Generally nice weather through the rest of the week


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

 

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>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 07L (Gaston) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean, located about 1110 miles east-southeast of Bermuda…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0716W5+gif/203810W_sm.gif

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A weak area of low pressure extending from eastern Cuba northward to the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development early next week when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate this system this morning has been canceled.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

This area is being referred to as Invest 99L, here’s a satellite image…and what the models are showing

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A weak area of disturbed weather is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures in this area are currently high, and little to no development of this system is expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 13E (Lester) remains active in the Pacific Ocean, located about 520 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer model

1.) Showers and thunderstorms have become more organized over the last day in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and if current trends continue a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Saturday as low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

2.) An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No Tropical Cyclones expected through at least the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located 307 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image , with what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice – This year’s melt season in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas started with a bang, with a record low maximum extent in March and relatively rapid ice loss through May. The melt slowed down in June, however, making it highly unlikely that this year’s summertime sea ice minimum extent will set a new record.

Youtube video: Arctic Sea Ice from March to August 2016

“Even when it’s likely that we won’t have a record low, the sea ice is not showing any kind of recovery. It’s still in a continued decline over the long term,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It’s just not going to be as extreme as other years because the weather conditions in the Arctic were not as extreme as in other years.”

“A decade ago, this year’s sea ice extent would have set a new record low and by a fair amount. Now, we’re kind of used to these low levels of sea ice – it’s the new normal.”

This year’s sea ice cover of the Barents and Kara seas north of Russia opened up early, in April, exposing the surface ocean waters to the energy from the sun weeks ahead of schedule. By May 31, the extent of the Arctic sea ice cover was comparable to end-of-June average levels. But the Arctic weather changed in June and slowed the sea ice loss. A persistent area of low atmospheric pressure, accompanied by cloudiness, winds that dispersed ice and lower-than-average temperatures, didn’t favor melt.

The rate of ice loss picked up again during the first two weeks of August, and is now greater than average for this time of the year. A strong cyclone is moving through the Arctic, similar to one that occurred in early August 2012. Four years ago, the storm caused an accelerated loss of ice during a period when the decline in sea ice is normally slowing because the sun is setting in the Arctic. However, the current storm doesn’t appear to be as strong as the 2012 cyclone and ice conditions are less vulnerable than four years ago, Meier said.

“This year is a great case study in showing how important the weather conditions are during the summer, especially in June and July, when you have 24 hours of sunlight and the sun is high in the sky in the Arctic,” Meier said. “If you get the right atmospheric conditions during those two months, they can really accelerate the ice loss. If you don’t, they can slow down any melting momentum you had. So our predictive ability in May of the September minimum is limited, because the sea ice cover is so sensitive to the early-to-mid-summer atmospheric conditions, and you can’t foresee summer weather.”

As scientists are keeping an eye on the Arctic sea ice cover, NASA is also preparing for a new method to measure the thickness of sea ice – a difficult but key characteristic to track from orbit.

“We have a good handle on the sea ice area change,” said Thorsten Markus, Goddard’s cryosphere lab chief. “We have very limited knowledge how thick it is.”

Research vessels or submarines can measure ice thickness directly, and some airborne instruments have taken readings that can be used to calculate thickness. But satellites haven’t been able to provide a complete look at sea ice thickness in particular during melting conditions, Markus said. The radar instruments that penetrate the snow during winter to measure thickness don’t work once you add in the salty water of the melting sea ice, since the salinity interferes with the radar.

The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2, or ICESat-2, will use lasers to try to get more complete answers of sea ice thickness. The satellite, slated to launch by 2018, will use a laser altimeter to measure the heights of Earth’s surface.

In the Arctic, it will measure the elevation of the ice floes, compared to the water level. However, only about one-tenth of sea ice is above the water surface; the other nine-tenths lie below.

To estimate the entire thickness of the ice floe, researchers will need to go beyond the above-water height measurements, and perform calculations to account for factors like the snow on top of the ice and the densities of the frozen layers. Scientists are eager to see the measurements turned into data on sea ice thickness, Markus said.

“If we want to estimate mass changes of sea ice, or increased melting, we need the sea ice thickness,” he said. “It’s critically important to understanding the changes in the Arctic.”