Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

86 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 76  Molokai AP
88 – 75  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 77  Kona AP
86 – 69  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Thursday evening:

0.96  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.08  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.47  Molokai
0.06  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.18  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.62  Waiakea Uka, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
42  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
30  Molokai
33  Lanai
37  Kahoolawe
35  Maalaea Bay, Maui
29  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Disturbances in the deeper tropics to our southwest through southeast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms offshore west through south…with tropical disturbances spinning by to our south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Mostly clear to partly cloudy leeward…clouds along windward sides

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers…mostly windward areas – Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory…MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The trade winds will prevail through the weekend…then become lighter from the southeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a rather strong, near 1036 millibar high pressure system far north-northeast of Hawaii. Meanwhile, there’s several low pressure systems/troughs traveling more or less from east to west…in the deeper tropics to our south. The gradient between high pressure to our northeast, and low pressure to our south, will keep the trade winds blowing across our latitudes here in the central Pacific. The trade winds will increase a bit more into Friday, and then ease up some during the weekend. These refreshing trades will give way to much lighter winds Monday through next Wednesday, ushering in sultry weather conditions…and perhaps even some unusual summertime volcanic haze for the smaller islands.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Clouds and showers will favor windward areas…and will remain active into Friday morning. This moisture will impact the windward sides of the islands for the most part, and then move westward away from the state later Friday. We’ll see areas of deeper moisture moving across the state during the weekend time frame. At the same time, a trough of low pressure will edge closer to the state then too, prompting some locally generous showers. As we push into early next week, and as the winds become softer, we’ll see increased afternoon cloud buildups…with localized showers in the upcountry areas.

Marine environment details: Locally strong trade winds associated with high pressure northeast of the region will continue through Friday night. The strongest winds are expected across the typically windier locations, mainly between the Big Island and Molokai. High pressure is forecast to weaken over the weekend and into early next week, which will translate to decreasing trades. 

Increasing onshore winds will translate to building surf along the exposed eastern shores of each island through Friday night, before gradually trending down over the weekend into early next week. A series of small southerly swells will continue to generate small surf along the exposed south shores through the period. Small north-northwest swell is expected Friday and Saturday, which will generate small surf along the north facing shores.

 

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Yum…Crema Gelato


World-wide tropical cyclone activity…

 

https://icons.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst_mm.gif


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 06L (Fiona) remains active in the central Atlantic Ocean, located about 1295 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0616W5_NL+gif/024535W5_NL_sm.gif

1.)  A tropical wave located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of cloudiness and shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

2.)  A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Storm 12E (Kay) remains active, located about 280 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…here’s the NHC graphical track map, with a satellite image…along with computer models

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/refresh/EP1216W5+gif/203918W_sm.gif
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) A surface trough located around 750 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to track toward the west. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along the trough, but are showing little signs of organization. Environmental conditions will likely continue to inhibit tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent

This area is being referred to as Invest 91C

Here’s what the computer models are showing…with a satellite image

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/gtwo_gsat.gif

No Tropical Cyclones expected through at least the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 10W (Mindulle) remains active in the western Pacific, located about 354 NM south of Iwo To…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models

Tropical Storm 11W (Dianmu) is now dissipating, located about 36 NM east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image – Final Warning
 

Tropical Storm 12W (Lionrock) remains active in the western Pacific, located about 173 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan…here’s the JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models show

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: A surge in major wildfire events in the U.S. West, as a consequence of climate change, will expose tens of millions of Americans to higher levels of air pollution in the coming decades…according to a new Yale-led study conducted with collaborators from Harvard – The researchers estimated air pollution from past and projected future wildfires in 561 western counties, and found that by mid-century more than 82 million people will experience “smoke waves,” or consecutive days with high air pollution related to fires.

The regions likely to receive the highest exposure to wildfire smoke in the future include northern California, western Oregon, and the Great Plains.

Their results, published in the journal Climatic Change, point to the need for new or modified wildfire management and evacuation programs in the nation’s high-risk regions, said Jia Coco Liu, a recent Ph.D. graduate at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) and lead author of the study.

“Our study illustrates that smoke waves are likely to be longer, more intense, and more frequent under climate change,” Liu said. “This raises critical health, ecological, and economic concerns. Identifying communities that will be most affected in the future will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs.”

Other authors include Michelle Bell, the Mary E. Pinchot Professor of Environmental Health at F&ES; Keita Ebisu, a former doctoral student with Dr. Bell; as well as colleagues at Harvard, Colorado State University, and the University of Michigan.

Smoke from wildfires, which are becoming more frequent and intense in the U.S. West as the climate changes, contains large amounts of fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, which can have profound impacts on human health.

But while wildfires are estimated to contribute about 18 percent of the total PM2.5 emissions in the U.S., many questions remain on how these emissions will affect human populations, including how overall air quality will be affected, how these levels will change under climate change, and which regions are to most likely to be impacted.

Using sophisticated atmospheric and climate models, the researchers estimated the levels of PM2.5 directly attributable to wildfires during a recent six-year period, 2004 to 2009, as well as under projected future climate change conditions (2046-2051).

Twenty counties that are currently free from smoke waves are expected to experience at least one in the future six-year period. The length of the smoke wave season, the period between the first and last smoke wave day, is estimated to increase by an average of 15 days in more than 62.5 percent of the counties.

About 56 percent of the counties currently affected by smoke waves — including most located in the forests of the northern Rocky Mountains and coastal counties — will likely face more intense smoke waves in the future. (About 19 percent will have less intense smoke waves.)

The researchers also developed an interactive map to illustrate their findings.

“We hope these results will advance the understanding of the impacts of an increasing threat of wildfire smoke, and aid in the design of early warning systems, fire suppression policies and public health programs,” said Liu.