Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
82 – 71 Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 73 Molokai AP
87 – 72 Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 75 Kailua Kona
84 – 71 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday evening:
0.61 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.13 Punaluu Stream, Oahu
0.20 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.81 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.56 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:
27 Waimea Heights, Kauai
35 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24 Molokai
29 Lanai
28 Kahoolawe
32 Maalaea Bay, Maui
32 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We can see Post-Tropical Storm Blas falling apart to the east of Hawaii…with Tropical Storm Celia to the southeast of former Blas
Post-Tropical Storm Blas is running out of steam…Final Advisory
Blas is on his last leg…although with still a nice cloud swirl
What the computer models are showing for former Blas
Tropical Storm Celia…becoming a hurricane later today
Tropical Storm Celia will become a category 1 hurricane soon
What the models are showing for Celia
We see what’s left of former tropical cyclone Agatha to the northeast of the islands / along with the outer field of clouds associated with now retiring Blas…on the far right side of the picture
Low clouds impacting the the islands locally…heavier shower clouds well offshore to the northeast
Showers locally…some are rather generous – Looping radar image
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Moderately strong trade winds will prevail today…with lighter winds Sunday into the new week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, nearly stationary 1035 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. At the same time, we see an approaching trough of low pressure to the east of the state. Our trade winds are expected to remain active today, gusting up to between 30-40 mph in those windiest locations. There’s a good chance that our trade wind flow will falter some, as the circulation of former tropical cyclone Agatha moves by to the north of Hawaii Sunday for several days.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
There will be showers, at least on and off…locally a bit heavy at times. A batch of moisture will ride in on the trade winds…with a few showers becoming locally heavy. These more generous showers will be triggered by a trough of low pressure moving closer to the state. This moisture will be part of whatever is left of…now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. We may see the same thing happen further down the line, as leftover moisture from what will very likely be retired tropical storm Blas, gets carried towards us towards the middle of the new week ahead. We have an even longer wait to see what, if any, weather that Celia may bring our way with time too…stay tuned.
Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: Post Tropical Storm Blas continues to weaken, and is now retiring. We have Tropical Storm Celia, which will become a hurricane soon. I don’t see either of these tropical cyclone’s causing any major problems for the Hawaiian Islands. However, we will see some showers and rising surf here in the islands, and again later in the new week ahead. Meanwhile, there’s a third disturbance that will spin up in the eastern Pacific, it will be called Tropical Depression 05E, then Tropical Storm Darby. Computer models show that this area of disturbed weather will develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico by Tuesday or sooner…and has the potential to intensify into a tropical storm and a hurricane later in the week.
Marine environment details: The pressure gradient across the area will gradually relax over the next couple of days as a weak trough of low pressure passes by from east to west. With the winds decreasing across the area, the small craft advisory for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been cancelled. By the middle of next week high pressure north of the area will have weakened and moved to a position far northeast of the area with winds expected to remain below advisory levels. Seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds throughout the forecast period..
The current south swell is slowly diminishing with the periods gradually becoming shorter. Thus, the high surf advisory for south facing shores has been cancelled. A series of small south swells can be expected for the first half of next week with a slightly larger south swell expected later in the week.
Long period swell energy from tropical cyclone Blas is being sensed at the Hilo buoy but heights and energy remain rather low. Swells from tropical cyclone Celia may reach east facing shores later in the week. Surf heights may reach advisory levels according to the latest model guidance.
Gradually lowering surf along our leeward shores
Here on Maui – Early Saturday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy…with most of the more cloudy areas along the windward coasts and slopes. These clouds are dropping a few showers this morning as well. The air temperature was 54.5F degrees at 546am here at my place in upcountry Kula. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 74 degrees, while Hana was 77, with Maalaea Bay reporting 75…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 46 degrees.
– Late afternoon, a good mix of clouds and sunshine, with most of the cloudy areas along the windward coasts and slopes…and over and around the mountains. Here at my place in upper Kula, it’s cloudy with a couple of very small drops falling…way to sparse and light to qualify as a true shower.
– Early evening, and a light to moderately heavy shower has arrived here in Kula. / A few minutes later, literally, the shower stopped and the sun is full out again.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Post-Topical Storm Blas remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific…about 1220 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image – Final Advisory
Tropical Storm Celia remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific, on a continued strengthening trend…located about 930 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm…and what the computer models are showing.
>>> A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of this week while the low moves west-northwestward to westward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Where Did Earth’s Water Come From? – Look at Earth compared to other rocky planets in the neighborhood, and the first thing that would likely jump out is that there’s A LOT of water. So how did 70 percent of our planet’s surface become covered in this essential life ingredient?
That question is the subject of lively scientific debate, it turns out.
There are two prevailing theories: One is that the Earth held onto some water when it formed, as there would have been ice in the nebula of gas and dust (called the proto-solar nebula) that eventually formed the sun and the planets about 4.5 billion years ago. Some of that water has remained with the Earth, and might be recycled through the planet’s mantle layer, according to one theory.
The second theory holds that the Earth, Venus, Mars and Mercury would have been close enough to that proto-solar nebula that most of their water would have been vaporized by heat; these planets would have formed with little water in their rocks. In Earth’s case, even more water would have been vaporized when the collision that formed the moon happened. In this scenario, instead of being home-grown, the oceans would have been delivered by ice-rich asteroids, called carbonaceous chondrites.
Follow the water
Scientists can track the origin of Earth’s water by looking at the ratio of two isotopes of hydrogen, or versions of hydrogen with a different number of neutrons, that occur in nature. One is ordinary hydrogen, which has just a proton in the nucleus, and the other is deuterium, also known as “heavy” hydrogen, which has a proton and a neutron.
The ratio of deuterium to hydrogen in Earth’s oceans seems to closely match that of asteroids, which are often rich in water and other elements such as carbon and nitrogen, rather than comets. (Whereas asteroids are small rocky bodies that orbit the sun, comets are icy bodies sometimes called dirty snowballs that release gas and dust and are thought to be leftovers from the solar system’s formation.)
Scientists have also discovered opals in meteorites that originated among asteroids (they are likely pieces knocked off of asteroids). Since opals need water to form, this finding was another indication of water coming from space rocks. These two pieces of evidence would favor an asteroid origin. In addition, deuterium tends to gather farther out in the solar system than hydrogen does, so water formed in the outer regions of the system would tend to be deuterium-rich.
And on top of that, the rocky inner planets hold relatively little water (relative to their masses) compared with the icy moons of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, and even the gas giants themselves. That would support the idea that in the inner system, the water evaporated, while in the outer system, it didn’t. If water evaporated on Earth it would have to be replaced from somewhere else, and water-rich asteroids are abundant in the outer reaches of the system.
More supporting evidence comes from NASA’s DAWN spacecraft, launched in 2007, which found evidence of water on Ceres and Vesta, the two largest objects in the main asteroid belt located between Mars and Jupiter.
Earth’s water is complicated
A slam dunk for asteroids? Not so fast. For this scenario to work, the isotope ratio had to have stayed the same in the oceans over the last few billion years.
But what if it didn’t?
Lydia Hallis, a planetary scientist with the University of Glasgow in the United Kingdom, thinks that the hydrogen present on the early Earth had much less deuterium in it than it does now. The ratio changed because in the early history of the Earth the radiation from the sun heated up both hydrogen and deuterium. Hydrogen, being lighter, was more likely to fly off into outer space, leaving more deuterium behind.
Also, in the last several years, newer models seem to show that the Earth retained a lot of water as it formed, and that the oceans might have been present for much longer than anyone thought.
Hallis and her colleagues looked at hydrogen isotope ratios in ancient Canadian rocks, some of the oldest rocks on Earth. The isotope ratios looked a lot less like asteroids and a lot more like the water one would expect from the early solar nebula in the region — the rocks had more ordinary hydrogen and less deuterium. But the current ocean ratio looks like asteroids. That would seem to indicate something changed in the last few billion years. The research was published in Science in 2015.
If the Earth’s oceans were formed from water on our own planet, rather than asteroids, that would solve a couple of problems for planetary scientists. One is why Earth seems to have so much water in the first place. Another is why life, which as far as anyone knows requires water, seems to have appeared so quickly once the Earth had a solid surface.
Besides the work of Hallis, other scientists have studied ways water could be recycled from Earth’s interior. In 2014, Wendy Panero, an associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State, and doctoral student Jeff Pigott proposed the theory that Earth was formed with entire oceans of water in its interior. Via plate tectonics, that water has been supplying the oceans. They studied garnet, and found it could work with another mineral, called ringwoodite, to deliver water to the Earth’s interior – water that would later come up as the mantle material circulated.
Complicating the picture, neither of these hypotheses is mutually exclusive. Asteroids could deliver water while some could come from the Earth’s interior. The question is how much each would deliver — and how to find that out.
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