Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:
82 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
86 – 76 Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 75 Molokai AP
86 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 77 Kailua Kona
85 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Friday evening:
0.36 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.31 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.40 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.58 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.48 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:
30 Port Allen, Kauai
45 Waianae Valley, Oahu
30 Molokai
38 Lanai
27 Kahoolawe
39 Maalaea Bay, Maui
37 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We can see Tropical Storm Blas far to the east of Hawaii…with Tropical Storm Celia to the east-southeast of Blas
Tropical Storm Blas continues to weaken
Tropical Storm Blas will be rapidly weakening from here on out…and the cloud signature is starting to unravel
What the computer models are showing for Blas
Tropical Storm Celia
Tropical Storm Celia will become a hurricane this weekend
What the models are showing for Celia
Thunderstorms southwest of the islands…we see what’s left of former tropical cyclone Agatha to the east-northeast of the islands / along with the outer field of clouds associated with Tropical Storm Blas…on the far right side of the picture
Low clouds approaching the windward sides of the eastern islands…a few minor cirrus clouds
Increasing windward showers locally – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels Maui County and the Big Island
High Surf Advisory…south facing shores of all islands
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Moderately strong trade winds will prevail through Saturday…with some likely changes Sunday into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1033 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. Our trade winds are expected to remain active through Saturday. I would expect winds to gust up to around 30-35 mph in those most windy locations. There’s a good chance that our trade wind flow will falter some, as the circulation of former tropical cyclone Agatha gets closer early Sunday into next Tuesday or so…stay tuned.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
There will be some windward showers at times…increasing locally tonight. There’s a chance that a slug of tropical moisture may arrive on the lighter trade winds, as we get into the second half of the weekend. This moisture would be whatever is left of…now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. We may see the same thing happen further down the line, as leftover moisture from what will very likely be retired tropical storm Blas, gets carried towards us on the trades towards the middle of next week. We have an even longer wait, to see what, if any, weather that Celia may bring our way next weekend…stay tuned.
Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Blas continues to weaken. We’ll keep an eye on Blas, as it continues to move in our general direction…although it will be on a steady weakening trend. We also have Tropical Storm Celia, that’s spinning over the ocean to the east of Blas, which will become a hurricane this weekend. I don’t see either of these tropical cyclone’s causing any major problems for the Hawaiian Islands. However, we may see some showers and rising surf here in the islands this weekend, and again later next week. Meanwhile, there’s a third disturbance that may try and spin up, it would be called Tropical Storm Darby. Some of the computer models show that this area of disturbed weather could develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico by Tuesday…and has the potential to intensify into a tropical storm late next week in the eastern Pacific.
Marine environment details: A small craft advisory (SCA) for select marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island, where winds are most accelerated by island terrain, continues through Saturday. The expectation is that trade winds will turn to the NE, and remain locally strong. This will occur as the pressure gradient is briefly tightened by an approaching low level trough of low pressure, which marks the remnants of what once was tropical storm Agatha. Winds are expected to be below SCA criteria statewide Sunday and Monday as the trough passes…with winds potentially remaining below SCA speeds into the middle of next week.
A south swell will continue to build and peak into Saturday, then decline Sunday. Observations from a NOAA buoy shows an increase in swell height. A high surf advisory for south facing shores of all islands is in effect through Saturday night.
East swells emanating from Tropical Storm Blas are expected to arrive today, spreading west to the other islands as the swell builds. Observations from the Hilo buoy are just starting to show evidence of some forerunner waves, but surf will likely need a bit more time to fill in before high surf is realized along east facing shores. A high surf advisory for some or all of the east facing shores is likely to go into effect sometime Saturday or Saturday night, depending upon the buoy trends going forward. This swell is expected to be relatively long-lived as the period gradually lowers through about mid-week.
Also, this swell is coming from a direction nearly parallel to the island chain, some east shores could become blocked by the upstream islands at times. Toward the end of next week, another long-period east swell is possible…if tropical storm Celia intensifies into a hurricane as expected, and moves west as models indicate.
Rising surf along our leeward shores today
Here on Maui – Early Friday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy…with most of the more cloudy areas along the windward coasts and slopes. The air temperature was 56.3F degrees at 537am here at my place in upcountry Kula. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 74 degrees, while Hana was 75, as was Maalaea Bay…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 48 degrees.
– Late afternoon, and the weather has turned out to be mostly sunny again, just like yesterday…totally summer!
– Early evening, the winds are coming up quite a bit here in upcountry Kula, not a steady wind…but pretty strong gusts at times. These winds are now coming in from more of a northerly direction, and thus they have a nice cool feel to them. It’s generally sunny, although I can see some clouds starting to arrive along the north shore from here.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Topical Storm Blas remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific…about 1465 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Storm Celia remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific, located not far to the east of Blas…or about 755 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm…and then hurricane Celia.
>>> An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Nepartak) remains active although is now a weakened tropical storm…and continues quickly weakening as it crosses the Taiwan Strait towards the eastern Chinese coast. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Animated satellite images of this super typhoon!
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Carbon emissions from Indonesia forest fires hit new high – Forest fires in Indonesia last year released 11.3 million tonnes of carbon per day, researchers have found. This figure exceeds the daily rate of 8.9 million tonnes of carbon emissions from the whole of the European Union, the study says.
The 2015 fires were the worst since 1997, when a strong El Niño also fanned widespread fires, says the study, published in the journal Scientific Reports.
Fire is widely used in South-East Asia to clear vegetation and maintain land for the growing of crops, the paper explains. Last year, fires were exacerbated by extended drought associated with El Niño, releasing 857 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from September to October 2015, the authors say. This represents 97 per cent of the country’s annual carbon emissions.
Study co-author Martin Wooster, an earth observation scientist at King’s College London in the United Kingdom, says the data produced from the study were based on satellite observation and on-site measurement of the air in Palangkaraya, the capital city of Central Kalimantan province, which experienced the country’s thickest smog during last year’s fires.
“There have been some isolated studies before where people artificially set fires in the lab to try to understand the chemical characteristics of peatland fire smoke in Indonesia,” Wooster explains. But this study is the first of its kind: “no one had done this for natural fires, and especially not on the kind of extreme fires seen in 2015.”
Wooster believes the study is more than enough to prod the Indonesian government to take serious steps in fighting forest fires, which have a severe impact on human lives.
“Every year, the global atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising, and in 2015 it rose more than any other year since measurements began,” he says, adding that governments in South-East Asia are “very aware” of the impact on air quality in the region.
Wooster notes the particulates in the atmosphere in some parts of Indonesia reached more than five times the hazardous levels, reducing visibility to a few hundred metres in places.
Sugarin, head of the Climatic and Meteorological Agency station in Riau, Sumatra, admits that the Indonesian government is now more serious in tackling the issue.
He says Riau province is now in a state of “emergency alert” for peatland fires, with 15 hotspots under watch. This means the central government is ready to send helicopters for “water bombings”.
“We are ready for the worst case this year even though it is unlikely that the same catastrophe will happen again,” says Sugarin. This year, the El Niño phenomenon will not return and the dry season will not bring such severe drought, he adds.
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