Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:
82 – 71 Lihue, Kauai
87 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 73 Molokai AP
87 – 74 Kahului AP, Maui
83 – 78 Kailua Kona
85 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Thursday evening:
0.62 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.96 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.20 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.10 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.17 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:
14 Waimea Heights, Kauai
30 Kuaokala, Oahu
24 Molokai
37 Lanai
25 Kahoolawe
31 Maalaea Bay, Maui
31 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We can see Hurricane Blas far to the east of Hawaii…with Tropical Storm Celia to the right of Blas
Hurricane Blas remains a category 2 storm for the time being
Hurricane Blas will be rapidly weakening from here on out
What the computer models are showing
Tropical Storm Celia
Tropical Storm Celia will become a hurricane this weekend
What the models are showing
Thunderstorms southwest of the islands…we see what’s left of former tropical cyclone Agatha to the east of the islands
Scattered low clouds…a few minor cirrus southwest and west
A few showers locally…mostly offshore – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels Maui County and the Big Island
High Surf Advisory…south facing shores of all islands
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Moderately strong trade winds will prevail through Saturday…with some likely changes Sunday into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1034 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. Our trade winds are expected to remain active through Saturday. I would expect winds to gust up to around 30-35+ mph in those most windy locations through the next couple of days. There’s a chance that our trade winds could falter, depending upon just where the circulation of former tropical cyclone Agatha goes, as it gets closer early Sunday into next Tuesday or so…stay tuned.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
There will be some windward showers at times…although not many. There’s a chance that a slug of tropical moisture may arrive on the lighter trade winds, as we get into the later part of the upcoming weekend. This moisture would be whatever is left of…now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. We may see the same thing happen further down the line, as leftover moisture from what will very likely be retired hurricane Blas, gets carried towards us on the trades later next week…stay tuned.
Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: Hurricane Blas remains a very strong system, qualifying as a category 2 hurricane. We’ll certainly need to keep an eye on Blas, as it continues to move in our general direction…although it will be on a steady weakening trend. We also have Tropical Storm Celia, that’s spinning over the ocean to the east of Blas, which will become a hurricane with time. I don’t see either of these tropical cyclone’s causing any major problems for the Hawaiian Islands, at least from this vantage point. At any rate, we may see some showers and rising surf here in the islands later this weekend, and again later next week.
Marine environment details: A small craft advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Friday for select marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island, where winds are most accelerated by island terrain. Winds may still be strong enough on Saturday to warrant an extension. Winds are expected to be below SCA criteria statewide Sunday and Monday.
Forerunners associated with a new south swell are expected to build today, with the swell peaking tomorrow and Saturday. Latest buoy observations near Lanai, and from buoy 51003, indicate that these forerunners have begun to arrive. Peak surf heights are expected to reach advisory levels along south facing shores of all islands, and a high surf advisory will likely be issued later today.
East swells emanating from hurricane Blas are expected to arrive in Hawaiian waters this weekend. This swell is forecast to arrive late Friday, and build into Sunday before gradually diminishing early next week. Significant uncertainty surrounds this forecast, although there is increasing potential for high surf along east facing shores this weekend into early next week.
Rising surf along our leeward shores today and Saturday
Here on Maui – Early Thursday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy…with most of the more cloudy areas along the windward coasts and slopes. We have some minor high cirrus clouds overhead as well…which once again lit up a pretty pink this morning. The air temperature was 54.5F degrees at 534am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting cloudy skies, with a temperature of 74 degrees, while Hana was 77…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 46 degrees.
– Early afternoon, with lots of blue skies, mixed with partly cloudy conditions locally as well. It’s a beautiful early summer day! / 230pm, mostly sunny and cloud free afternoon…even over the Haleakala Crater slopes.
– Thursday evening, almost dark, with that growing sliver of a new moon…beautifying our Maui skies.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Blas remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific…about 1345 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Tropical Storm Celia remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific, located not far to the east of Blas…or about 735 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm…and then hurricane Celia.
>>> An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Nepartak) remains active although is now barely a typhoon…and continues quickly weakening as it crosses the Taiwan Strait towards the eastern Chinese coast. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Animated satellite images of this super typhoon!
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Carbon emissions from Indonesia forest fires hit new high – Forest fires in Indonesia last year released 11.3 million tonnes of carbon per day, researchers have found. This figure exceeds the daily rate of 8.9 million tonnes of carbon emissions from the whole of the European Union, the study says.
The 2015 fires were the worst since 1997, when a strong El Niño also fanned widespread fires, says the study, published in the journal Scientific Reports.
Fire is widely used in South-East Asia to clear vegetation and maintain land for the growing of crops, the paper explains. Last year, fires were exacerbated by extended drought associated with El Niño, releasing 857 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from September to October 2015, the authors say. This represents 97 per cent of the country’s annual carbon emissions.
Study co-author Martin Wooster, an earth observation scientist at King’s College London in the United Kingdom, says the data produced from the study were based on satellite observation and on-site measurement of the air in Palangkaraya, the capital city of Central Kalimantan province, which experienced the country’s thickest smog during last year’s fires.
“There have been some isolated studies before where people artificially set fires in the lab to try to understand the chemical characteristics of peatland fire smoke in Indonesia,” Wooster explains. But this study is the first of its kind: “no one had done this for natural fires, and especially not on the kind of extreme fires seen in 2015.”
Wooster believes the study is more than enough to prod the Indonesian government to take serious steps in fighting forest fires, which have a severe impact on human lives.
“Every year, the global atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising, and in 2015 it rose more than any other year since measurements began,” he says, adding that governments in South-East Asia are “very aware” of the impact on air quality in the region.
Wooster notes the particulates in the atmosphere in some parts of Indonesia reached more than five times the hazardous levels, reducing visibility to a few hundred metres in places.
Sugarin, head of the Climatic and Meteorological Agency station in Riau, Sumatra, admits that the Indonesian government is now more serious in tackling the issue.
He says Riau province is now in a state of “emergency alert” for peatland fires, with 15 hotspots under watch. This means the central government is ready to send helicopters for “water bombings”.
“We are ready for the worst case this year even though it is unlikely that the same catastrophe will happen again,” says Sugarin. This year, the El Niño phenomenon will not return and the dry season will not bring such severe drought, he adds.
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