Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 4-5, 2016

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

82 – 71  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 73  Molokai AP
88 – 67  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 74  Kailua Kona
83 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Monday evening:

1.98  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.00  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.10  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.67  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.90  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

24  Port Allen, Kauai
35  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
25  Molokai
27  Lanai
30  Kahoolawe
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui
29  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

We can see Hurricane Blas far to the east-southeast of Hawaii

Hurricane Blas is rapidly intensifying far to the east-southeast of Hawaii

What the computer models are showing…in relation to Hawaii 

High cirrus clouds moving by just to the north of the islands

 

More low clouds approaching from the east…which will bear showers locally

 

Showers arriving at times…generally along the windward sides – Looping radar image

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The recent strong and gusty trade winds will become more moderate now through Friday…with some changes during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1034 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. Our trade winds are expected to remain active through the end of this work week. I would expect winds to gust up towards 35 mph in those most windy locations through the next several days. There’s a chance that our trade winds could falter substantially, or increase in strength, depending upon just where the circulation of former tropical cyclone Agatha goes, as it gets close during the upcoming weekend…stay tuned.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

There will be some windward showers at times into Tuesday. As the trade winds will continue to be gusty, some of these showers will ride over into the leeward sections at times…on the smaller islands. This moisture will keep showery conditions active, at least in an off and on manner. There’s an improving chance that a slug of tropical moisture may arrive on the trade winds as we get into the weekend. This moisture would be whatever is left of…now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. We may see the same thing happen further down the line, as leftover moisture from what will very likely be retired hurricane Blas, gets carried towards us on the trades next week…stay tuned.

Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: Blas is a hurricane, and will strengthen into a much stronger system! We’ll certainly need to keep an eye on Blas, although it should remain well away from our islands…moving by to the east and then northeast of Hawaii. There should be a third storm spinning-up with time, which will become tropical storm Celia. This third storm of the season looks like it will follow right into the same general tracks that former Agatha and Blas have taken/took. In sum, I don’t see any of these tropical cyclone’s causing problems for the Hawaiian Islands…at least in terms of winds. We may see some showers and rising surf here in the islands later this week. There’s more information about these tropical systems below.

Marine environment details: Locally strong trade winds warrant a small craft advisory (SCA) for the windier marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Latest guidance indicates little significant change in the strength of the high to the north, or the local pressure gradient, for most of the upcoming week…so it’s likely that the SCA will be extended in time for the existing zones.

Latest data from near shore buoys indicate that trade wind driven seas have diminished from their recent peak. Surf is below advisory thresholds along all shorelines, and this is expected to continue for the next several days, with small swells from the southwest and southeast providing a little surf along our leeward facing shores. A larger south swell is expected to arrive on Thursday and peak on Friday/Saturday, with peak surf heights near advisory levels along south facing shores of all islands.

The first hurricane of the season has developed in the eastern Pacific, Blas, and the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for Blas to intensify into a large and intense hurricane during the next couple of days. While Blas is forecast to be about 1300 miles east of the islands by the end of the week, wave models indicate swells emanating from the hurricane will arrive in Hawaiian waters by next weekend. Significant uncertainty surrounds this forecast, but there is potential for high surf along east facing shores by the upcoming weekend.

 

 

Here on Maui – Early Monday morning is dawning clear, with a few wisps of high cirrus clouds lighting up pink just before sunrise again today. Clouds will be arriving later today with showers along our windward sides. The air temperature was 53F degrees at 539am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 69 degrees, while Hana was 73, with Maalaea Bay showing 75…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 46 degrees. / Now at 845am, skies are becoming more cloudy, although it’s still a rather nice day…at least so far.

– Early afternoon, partly to mostly cloudy, and hazy around the edges too. / 145pm, I see that there’s a few very little drops on my deck here in Kula. There are some blue skies too, mostly away from the mountain slopes.

– Early evening, and I’m already hearing some big booms in my area of Kula. The first one startled me, although now I’m a little more relaxed with each following firework. The weather is still good in most areas, although the windward sides will begin receiving more showers as we head into the night and Tuesday morning.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Blas remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

1.)  An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)