Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

85 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 76  Molokai AP
88 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 78  Kona AP
85 – 73 
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…Thursday:

1.96  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.49  Manoa Lyon Arboretum,
Oahu
0.51  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.85  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.57  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…Thursday:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
52  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
33  Molokai
40  Lanai

33  Kahoolawe
36  Maalaea Bay, Maui

40  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Tropical Storm Darby is approaching Hawaii…with Tropical Storm Estelle further to the east / Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Depression 08E are also active in the Eastern Pacific Ocean!


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Tropical Storm Darby is expected to make a run just offshore from Hawaii

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical Storm Darby spinning in the direction of Hawaii, we need to take this as a serious threat…with  stormy conditions this weekend

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Tropical Storm Darby close-up view…Big Island on the left

 

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Showers locally –
Looping radar image
[The peripheral moisture from Darby will start to bring some showers to windward Big Island…increasing today. More significant bands of heavy showers and squalls associated with Darby are likely to start tonight, then increase in intensity and frequency as the tropical storm gets closer.]


>>>Tropical Storm Warning
…Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles, out to 240 NM – and the Big Island


>>>Tropical Storm Watch
…Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe and Maui


>>>High Surf Advisory
…Kauai, Oahu and Molokai


>>>High Surf Warning
…east shores of Maui and the Big Island – through 6am Sunday


>>>Flash Flood Watch
…Maui County and Big Island – possible excessive rainfall late tonight through Sunday afternoon

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Gusty trades into Friday…then tropical storm force winds during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong near 1040 millibar high pressure system in the area far north of Hawaii. Gusty trade winds will blow through Friday. We’ll then see extensive tropical air arriving…as tropical storm Darby moves across parts of the Hawaiian Islands. If this occurs as expected, our winds will increase markedly, with tropical storm winds (39-73 mph) buffeting the islands locally…stay tuned.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic showing vog forecast

Major changes on the horizon…as tropical storm Darby moves into range. As the trade winds are still active now, we’ll see our showers focusing on the windward sides…for the most part at least. Meanwhile, as tropical storm Darby gets closer to Hawaii, we’ll see this system bringing significant weather changes. As Tropical Storm Darby moves over the islands, or at least the eastern side of the island chain, we could see tropical storm conditions, including high surf, strong and gusty winds, and flooding rainfall…stay tuned.

Effects of approaching Darby on the Hawaiian Islands: This tropical storm continues to spin in the direction of Hawaii, and thus, we need to keep a very close eye on this dangerous system. Darby will be moving over slightly warmer water the next couple of days, while wind shear aloft is forecast to increase slightly. Little change in intensity is expected for the next few days.

Initial reconnaissance into Darby by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is scheduled for tomorrow morning, and their data will give a much better idea as to Darby’s intensity and size.

Based on the current forecast, the east end of the state (the Big Island and Maui County) could experience the effects of Darby as early as late tonight, continuing into the weekend, in the form of increased rainfall and high surf. As Darby gets closer, the circulation of this storm will also bring stronger, potentially damaging winds. The probabilities of tropical storm force winds reaching the Big Island and Maui now seem very likely…based on the CPHC forecast track. There would be locally heavy rainfall for some areas of the state through Sunday. The inclement weather conditions will arrive over the Big Island first, then moving over Maui County, Oahu, and probably Kauai too.

It’s not too early to begin preparing for these inclement weather conditions, especially if you live in Maui County and the Big Island…perhaps even Oahu. I would highly suggest keeping an eye on the latest updates on approaching tropical storm Darby.

Until Darby gets close, we will see good conditions for getting ready, with typical trade wind weather with passing mainly windward showers. After Darby passes, moist, humid southeast flow will continue during the first half of next week.

After Darby departs, the winds will turn southeast for about 24 hours or so, with warm, muggy conditions expected. After that, warm but not-quite-as-humid trade wind weather returns during the first half of the new week.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05E/imagery/ir_lalo-animated.gif
Animation of approaching Tropical Storm Darby…showing the Big Island far left

 

Marine environment details: Winds and seas directly associated with Darby are likely to start increasing over the southeast offshore waters tonight, then spreading westward toward the state on Friday. Winds and seas will begin increasing over the Big Island southeast waters Friday, and continue spreading through the coastal waters zones near the Big Island and Maui over the weekend.

The surf from Darby is a little ahead of schedule at the Hilo buoy, so the advisory for tonight looks good, later going into warning criteria for east facing shores of Maui and the Big Island Friday. There is some possibility that the warning to other east facing shores may need to be expanded.

 

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Trade wind weather pattern

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm Estelle remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean…located about 1445 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm Frank remains active offshore from Mexico…located about 205 southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.

Tropical Depression 08E remains active…located about 865 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
:

Darby continues to move westward…located about 425 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
No active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Birds on top of the world…with nowhere to go
– Climate change could make much of the Arctic unsuitable for millions of migratory birds that travel north to breed each year, according to a new international study published in Global Change Biology.

The University of Queensland School of Biological Sciences’ researcher Hannah Wauchope said that suitable breeding conditions for Arctic shorebirds could collapse by 2070.

“This means that countries throughout the world will have fewer migratory birds reaching their shores,” Ms Wauchope said.

Arctic breeding shorebirds undertake some of the longest known migratory journeys in the animal kingdom, with many traveling more than 20,000 kilometers per year to escape the northern winter.

The bar-tailed godwit flies from Alaska to New Zealand in a single flight of 12,000 kilometers without landing.

The study predicts that, in a warming world, migratory birds will become increasingly restricted to small islands in the Arctic Ocean as they retreat north.

This could cause declines in hard-hit regions and some birds could even completely change migratory pathways to migrate closer to suitable habitat.

“Climate change is also opening up the Arctic to threats such as mining and tourism, and we must make sure we protect key places for all Arctic species, including these amazing migratory birds,” Ms Wauchope said.

UQ’s Associate Professor Richard Fuller from the ARC Center of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED) said most migratory populations followed well-defined migratory routes.

“This makes shorebirds an excellent group to investigate how climate change might impact breeding grounds and conservation actions that could address these impacts,” Associate Professor Fuller said.

The research modeled the suitable climate breeding conditions of 24 Arctic shorebirds and projected them to 2070.

The researchers also examined the impact on Arctic birds of the world’s last major warming event about 6000 to 8000 years ago.

“Climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift and contract over the next 70 years, with up to 83 per cent of Arctic bird species losing most of their currently suitable area,” Ms Wauchope said.

“This far exceeds the effects of the last major warming event on Earth, but genetic evidence suggests that even then the birds struggled to deal with the warming.”

She said that suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline fastest in the areas with most species (western Alaska and eastern Russia), where Arctic birds are already becoming vulnerable to the “shrubification” of the tundra, and predators such as red foxes moving north.