Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:

83 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu

81 – 75  Molokai AP
86 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 76  Kailua Kona
85 – 73 
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday evening:

0.16  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.00 
Oahu
0.10  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.27  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.49  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:

29 Port Allen, Kauai
48  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
35  Molokai
35  Lanai

38  Kahoolawe
45  Kaupo Gap, Maui

42  Upolu AP, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
We can see Tropical Storm Agatha far east of the state, along with
Tropical Storm Blas far to the east-southeast of Hawaii (offshore from Mexico)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP02/refresh/EP0216W5_NL+gif/145344W5_NL_sm.gif
Tropical Storm Agatha in the northeastern Pacific…not a problem for Hawaii

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201602_model.gif
What the computer models are showing…Hawaii is just off the map to the left

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP03/refresh/EP0316W5_NL+gif/023357W5_NL_sm.gif
Tropical Storm Blas, which will become a major hurricane well to the east of Hawaii

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201603_model.gif
What the computer models are showing…Hawaii is just off the map to the left

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms far offshore to the south and southwest of Hawaii

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Low clouds approaching the state from the east…bearing showers

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers taking aim on the Big Island and Maui County first…generally windward sides –
Looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory
… windiest coastal and channel waters

High Surf Advisory…east facing shores

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Solid trade wind flow across the state, strong and gusty…although gradually easing up some into Monday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1033 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. Our trade winds are expected to remain robust tonight, and easing-up slightly through the holiday on Monday. We’ll see wind advisories active over the windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island for the time being. I would expect winds to gust up between 40-50 mph in those most windy locations. Gusty trade winds will continue right on into the new week…although becoming lighter during the second half of the week.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic showing vog forecast

There will be an increase in passing windward showers into Monday…with off and on wet periods on those north and east facing areas through mid-week. As the trade winds will continue to be uppity, some of these showers will ride over the mountains into the leeward sections at times…on the smaller islands. This moisture will keep generally wet trade wind weather active through the middle of the new week. Thereafter, these passing showers, along the windward sides, should back-off during the second part of the new week.

Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: We now see the first and second tropical storms of the season churning the waters of the eastern Pacific, named Agatha and Blas. TS Blas is expected to follow in the general track that Agatha has taken, and will become a much stronger system! We’ll need to keep an eye on Blas, although it may take a turn to the north, while still in the eastern Pacific. There may be a third storm spinning up thereafter, which will become tropical storm Celia. In sum, I don’t see any of these tropical cyclone’s causing problems for the Hawaiian Islands for the time being. There’s more information about these tropical cyclones below.

Marine environment details:  Satellite and ground observations support keeping the current small craft advisory and gale warning in place through today. Although the winds will begin to ease Sunday through the upcoming week, the small craft advisory will likely be extended in later forecast packages, mostly for the windier marine areas from the Pailolo Channel to the waters south of the Big Island.

Advisory level surf will remain possible along east facing beaches due to the strong trade winds, beginning as early as tonight. Elsewhere, no significant surf is anticipated through the weekend. Looking ahead through the upcoming week, the latest wave model guidance has begun to reflect a small to moderate south swell by the end of next week, in response to the recent gale located east of New Zealand. Although later observations at the buoys farther south across the Pacific will need to be monitored over the coming days, this southerly source will likely support near advisory level surf along the south facing shores by next Friday.

 

http://www.luxurykauaihome.com/images/morning-lanai-lounge-700.JPG


Here on Maui
– Early Saturday morning is dawning partly cloudy, with high cirrus clouds lighting up pink just before sunrise again today. The air temperature was 59.9F degrees at 538am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 77 degrees, while Hana was 77, as was Maalaea Bay…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 45 degrees.

Early afternoon, and the wind has finally arrived here in Upcountry Kula, in no uncertain terms! Honestly, we’ve seen none of the strong winds that have been whipping through other parts of the island chain. However, just had quite a pile driver series of gusts, which had me running out on my weather deck to relocate a couple of wind exposed plants.

Early evening, and an area of low clouds is moving onshore over the windward sides of Maui. These clouds will bring an increase in showers through the night into Sunday, although most leeward beaches will remain generally dry. Now that the high cirrus clouds are mostly gone, we won’t have a colorful sunset…as of late. You may have noticed that the tropical oceans here in the Pacific have lit up, with three active tropical cyclones now churning the ocean. There’s more information about these systems further down the page. Finally, the winds are still locally strong this evening, gusting up over 40 mph in several of our windiest locations around the state. By the way, from my vantage point here in Kula, there is a large bank of clouds that have shifted over windward Maui, and seems to be trying to sneak over into the leeward slopes of the Haleakala Crater.

 

Friday Evening Film: Svetlana, Jeff and I will be heading downtown to see a film in Kahului, which will be fun as usual. This time around we’re seeing one called Swiss Army Man, starring Paul Dano, Daniel Radcliffe, Mary Elizabeth Winstead...among many others. The synopsis, outrageously fun and deeply affecting, Swiss Army Man is a gonzo buddy comedy that is the feature film debut of acclaimed music video directors Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan.

Bursting with limitless creativity in both form and content, Swiss Army Man goes from the absurd to the emotional to the whimsical to the profound and back again. Hank (Paul Dano) is stranded on a deserted island, having given up all hope of ever making it home again. But one day everything changes when a corpse named Manny (Daniel Radcliffe) washes up on shore; the two become fast friends, and ultimately go on an epic adventure that will bring Hank back to the woman of his dreams.

Swiss Army Man creates a world like no other, a place of pure fantastical imagination, brimming with magical realism, yet featuring two characters whose dreams and fears are entirely relatable. Dano and Radcliffe both fully commit to their directors’ audacious vision, and their work is exceptional, finding the perfect balance of humor and heart that drives the whole film. A celebration of all the wonders cinema has to offer, Swiss Army Man is a cultural phenomenon in the making; a surreal and wholly original examination of human vulnerability and connection that must be experienced.

This was one of the stranger films that I’ve ever seen, and I enjoyed it quite a bit. I’m honestly not sure what to say more than that. As one critic said, Swiss Army Man is rude, crude, bizarre and oddly touching. The words that come to me are crazy, at times sort of magical, lets not forget absurd, funny, sad…and yes creepy. Jeff and Svetlana weren’t taken by the film, and Jeff gave it a C+ grade, while I came in at a solid B rating. It was definitely a film like no other! If you’re the slightest bit interested, here’s the trailer…which is quirky and unusual to say the least.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Storm 02E (Agatha) continues spinning over the waters of the eastern Pacific this weekend…the first tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season in this part of the world. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm Blas is also active over the waters of the eastern Pacific. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) A new area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next week well southwest of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 02W (Nepartak)
remains active in the western Pacific Ocean, gradually strengthening into a strong typhoon with time. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
No active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: 
New technology could improve use of small-scale hydropower in developing nations
– Engineers at Oregon State University have created a new computer modeling package that people anywhere in the world could use to assess the potential of a stream for small-scale, “run of river” hydropower, an option to produce electricity that’s of special importance in the developing world.

The system is easy to use; does not require data that is often unavailable in foreign countries or remote locations; and can consider hydropower potential not only now, but in the future as projected changes in climate and stream runoff occur.

OSU experts say that people, agencies or communities interested in the potential for small-scale hydropower development can much more easily and accurately assess whether it would meet their current and future energy needs.

Findings on the new assessment tool have been published in Renewable Energy, in work supported by the National Science Foundation.

“These types of run-of-river hydropower developments have a special value in some remote, mountainous regions where electricity is often scarce or unavailable,” said Kendra Sharp, the Richard and Gretchen Evans Professor in Humanitarian Engineering in the OSU College of Engineering.

“There are parts of northern Pakistan, for instance, where about half of rural homes don’t have access to electricity, and systems such as this are one of the few affordable ways to produce it. The strength of this system is that it will be simple for people to use, and it’s pretty accurate even though it can work with limited data on the ground.”

The new technology was field-tested at a 5-megawatt small-scale hydropower facility built in the early 1980s on Falls Creek in the central Oregon Cascade Range. At that site, it projected that future climate changes will shift its optimal electricity production from spring to winter and that annual hydropower potential will slightly decrease from the conditions that prevailed from 1980-2010.

Small-scale hydropower, researchers say, continues to be popular because it can be developed with fairly basic and cost-competitive technology, and does not require large dams or reservoirs to function. Although all forms of power have some environmental effects, this approach has less impact on fisheries or stream ecosystems than major hydroelectric dams. Hydroelectric power is also renewable and does not contribute to greenhouse gas emissions.

One of the most basic approaches is diverting part of a stream into a holding basin, which contains a self-cleaning screen that prevents larger debris, insects, fish and objects from entering the system. The diverted water is then channeled to and fed through a turbine at a lower elevation before returning the water to the stream.

The technology is influenced by the seasonal variability of stream flow, the “head height,” or distance the water is able to drop, and other factors. Proper regulations to maintain minimum needed stream flow can help mitigate environmental impacts.

Most previous tools used to assess specific sites for their small-scale hydropower potential have not been able to consider the impacts of future changes in weather and climate, OSU researchers said, and are far too dependent on data that is often unavailable in developing nations.

This free, open source software program was developed by Thomas Mosier, who at the time was a graduate student at OSU, in collaboration with Sharp and David Hill, an OSU associate professor of coastal and ocean engineering. It is now available to anyone on request by contacting Kendra.sharp@oregonstate.edu

This system will allow engineers and policy makers to make better decisions about hydropower development and investment, both in the United States and around the world, OSU researchers said in the study.