Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:
84 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 74 Molokai AP
90 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui – record 94…back in 1953
89 – 75 Kona AP
87 – 73 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Monday:
2.21 Kilohana, Kauai
1.22 Mililani, Oahu
0.18 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.03 Kahoolawe
0.27 Kahakuloa, Maui
2.13 Laupahoehoe, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday:
21 Mana, Kauai
18 Kii, Oahu
20 Molokai
13 Lanai
13 Kahoolawe
20 Maalaea Bay, Maui
24 Hilo AP, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Darby is spinning far to the east of Hawaii, with Estelle, closer to Mexico…along with former Celia moving by north of Kauai
Darby spinning generally towards the Hawaiian Islands…on a gradual weakening trend
Darby…moving into the central Pacific by mid-week
What the models show for Darby
Estelle heading into higher latitudes…not a threat for Hawaii
Estelle…on a slow strengthening trend…faint eye
What the models are showing for Estelle
We see former Celia to our north…with Darby spinning into the picture on the far right
Former Celia…with its low cloud swirl spinning by the islands…along with thunderstorms to the north of its center
Showers will be falling at times…some locally heavy – Looping radar image
Gale Warning…Hawaii’s offshore waters – beyond 40 nautical miles
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our local winds will be lighter…then more refreshing trades returning by mid-week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a very strong near 1041 millibar high pressure system in the area far north of Hawaii. At the same time, we see former tropical depression Celia not far to the north of our islands…moving steadily westward. Our trade winds will be lighter now…ushering in sultry conditions. This easing of the winds will occur, as former Celia passes by the islands a couple of hundred miles to our north. Thereafter, cooling and more refreshing trade winds will return for a couple of days, before we see more muggy air arriving…as whatever is left of weakening tropical cyclone Darby likely moves closer to the state Friday into the weekend.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Showers expected…becoming quite generous at times through Tuesday. Former tropical depression Celia will help to bring tropical moisture our way through Tuesday. Relative humidity levels will remain quite high as well, as former Celia continues to bring enhanced moisture across the island chain. High relative humidity will bring quite uncomfortable conditions, especially as the trade winds diminish. The southern periphery of what’s left of Celia, as it moves by to our northeast and north, will bring localized precipitation to Hawaii. Meanwhile, as much weakened Darby gets closer to Hawaii towards Friday into the weekend, we could see this system bringing possible heavy rains our way…stay tuned.
Marine environment details: A high surf advisory remains in effect for east facing shores through today, as swells generated by post-tropical Celia continue to arrive. With the current easterly swells on the decline, the primary swell direction will be shifting toward the northeast. Waves arriving today were generated recently and closer to the islands, and the frequency of set waves is expected to increase. The advisory may need to be extended, but will allow daytime surf observations to help drive that decision. There is some potential that surf along east facing shores of the Big Island and Maui County could drop below criteria, while Kauai and Oahu see high surf continue longer.
Although surf may drop below advisory levels along east facing shores by Tuesday, swells generated by distant Hurricane Darby are expected to arrive this week, keeping east shore surf heights elevated. After mid-week, surf along east facing shores may become large enough to warrant a re-issuance of the high surf advisory, potentially continuing into the weekend. Elsewhere, small to moderate surf along south facing shores this week will be supplied by relatively small swells…arriving from the southern hemisphere.
While winds are expected to be below small craft advisory (SCA) criteria the next couple of days, combined seas are expected to exceed the criteria for SCA in select Kauai and Oahu waters through early Tuesday. As the Celia remnant low moves northwest of Kauai on Tuesday, trade winds will increase from east to west across the island chain, potentially becoming strong Thursday and Friday, with the forecast hinging on the future track of what is expected to be a significantly weakened Darby.
Warm and humid weather…light breezes
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific: Darby remains active, although is on a slow weakening trend. It’s too early to know for sure, although the computer models bring whatever that’s left of Darby close to the islands later this week. Meanwhile, Estelle remains active in the eastern Pacific…and will strengthen further. She should take a track well northeast of the islands, limiting any threat for Hawaii.
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Darby continues to move westward…located about 1345 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
Estelle remains active well offshore from Mexico…located about 585 west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
1.) A tropical wave located over the far eastern Pacific Ocean and portions of Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent
2.) A weak low pressure area located about 700 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
1.) A surface low, the remnant of ex-Tropical Cyclone Celia, is centered about 200 miles northwest of Honolulu. It is moving west at 10 mph. Atmospheric conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone
redevelopment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Abela) remains active in the South Indian Ocean…located about 540 miles east-northeast of Antananarivo, Mauritius. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and what the computer models are showing
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Rising Seas Push Too Much Salt Into The Florida Everglades – The Florida Everglades is a swampy wilderness the size of Delaware. In some places along the road in southern Florida, it looks like tall saw grass to the horizon, a prairie punctuated with a few twisted cypress trees. The sky is the palest blue.
But beneath the surface a different story is unfolding. Because of climate change and sea level rise, the ocean is starting to seep into the swampland. If the invasion grows worse, it could drastically change the Everglades, and a way of life for millions of residents in South Florida.
An experiment is going on here to help scientists understand more about what’s likely to happen as the ocean invades. “We’re making, basically, artificial seawater here,” a guy wearing a mosquito net over his face tells me, as he stirs water in a vat the size of a hot tub.
The guy in the mosquito net is Joe Stachelek — a collaborator with Tiffany Troxler, from Florida International University. They’re making salt water and pumping it out into the wetland — dosing the plants and soil with their briny mix as a preview of what the ocean could do.
“As sea level rises,” Troxler explains, “the saltwater wedge moves inland.” And it infiltrates the bedrock.
“Our underlying rock is limestone,” Troxler says. “That limestone is very porous; it’s almost like Swiss cheese in some areas.”
We walk out into the test site — through the saw grass and the underlying peat, which is a fancy name for muck. It’s rich stuff, full of nutrients and microorganisms that feed this river of grass. And, like the plants, the peat also is affected by salt water.
The team has laid out a metal boardwalk, so you can walk around the muck without sinking up to your waist. Out here the grass is patchier, and in some places the peat is slumping — collapsing.
Troxler says there’s lots of this slumping going on. “When we start to lose the structure of the plants,” she explains, “essentially this peat, which is otherwise held together by roots, becomes a soupy pond.”
In response to the salt, the plants actually pull up some of their roots — out of the peat. The roots look like teeth protruding from receding gums.
This could be the future of the Everglades, Troxler says. And here’s the thing: The Everglades acts like sponge, feeding off the Biscayne aquifer — a giant cell of freshwater that lies underneath the land.
“We get over 90 percent of our freshwater from the Biscayne aquifer,” Troxler says, “we” meaning millions of people in South Florida.
As seawater seeps up from underneath, through the limestone bedrock, it is contaminating the aquifer and the Everglades above it.
That’s starting to worry some people. Like Julie Hill-Gabriel, who directs Everglades policy for the National Audubon Society in Florida. She says she tells people in South Florida, “What we do in the Everglades is 100 percent going to affect you in your neighborhood — [and whether] when you turn on the tap water, you have enough fresh clean water.”
For millennia, fresh water flowed south to the Everglades, making it the largest flooded grassland in America. But over the past several decades, that water was diverted to irrigate agricultural fields, and to keep homes from flooding. Environmental groups like Audubon have been trying to restore the natural flow to the Everglades, mostly to preserve wildlife.
Now, Hill-Gabriel says, there’s a new reason for that restoration — to repel the invading sea. Putting more freshwater back into the sponge that is the Everglades could create a kind of “back pressure” to keep seawater out.
“It just really compounds the urgency to move that freshwater south,” says Hill-Gabriel.
At least that’s the theory.
When it comes to climate change in South Florida, much of the focus until now has been about protecting property with pumps and barriers. But James Cason, the Republican mayor of the city of Coral Gables, says he hopes his constituents can understand the importance of protecting the Everglades as well.
“It’s not just so they can see the alligators,” Cason says. “It’s because they’ll want to make sure the drinking water on which we all depend is not contaminated.”
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Mike Says:
Aloha Glenn! Love your site, especially when we’re not in Maui. 🙂
We are heading to our place there next Tuesday (26th). What are the potential threats of Darby and especially Estelle for next week?
Thanks,
Mike
~~~ Hi Mike, good to hear from you.
I totally understand your concern, however, you have nothing to worry about. Darby will have given us some rain, and perhaps even some moderately breezy conditions, although will be long gone by the time you arrive.
As for Estelle, you have nothing to worry about her either.
Come ahead, and have another great time here in paradise!
Aloha, Glenn