Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the low temperatures Saturday:
84 – 73 Lihue, Kauai
88 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 74 Molokai AP
85 – 74 Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 77 Kona AP
86 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday evening:
0.27 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
3.19 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
1.00 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.01 Kahoolawe
1.67 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.63 Honokaa, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:
23 Port Allen, Kauai
33 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24 Molokai
27 Lanai
22 Kahoolawe
27 Maalaea Bay, Maui
28 Puu Mali, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Hurricane Darby is spinning far to the east of Hawaii, with Tropical Storm Estelle…active closer to Mexico
Hurricane Darby…staying a bit lower in latitude than the previous storms
Category 2 Hurricane Darby…with a faint central eye
What the models show for Hurricane Darby
Tropical Storm Estelle…active in the eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Estelle on the way up in strength
What the models are showing for Ms. Estelle…with Hawaii on the far left
We see former Celia to our northeast…which will move by north of Hawaii
Former Celia still has deep convection…the thunderstorms near the center
Former Celia spinning into the picture with more showers on their way with time
Showers will be falling locally – Looping radar image
High Surf Advisory…for east shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island
Gale Warning…Hawaii’s offshore waters – beyond 40 nautical miles
A rather spectacular short film called…Vorticity (Full Screen is best)
[Vorticity in this case: circulation or rotation of storm clouds]
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will be light to moderately strong…with some wind direction and speed changes Sunday into Tuesday morning. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a strong near 1039 millibar high pressure system in the area far north-northeast of Hawaii. At the same time, we see former tropical depression Celia not far to the east-northeast of our islands. Our trade winds are expected to become lighter, and from variable directions…ushering in unusually sultry summertime conditions by Monday. This easing of the winds should occur, as whats left of Celia passes by the islands, just to our north. Thereafter, breezy trade winds will return for a couple of days, before we see more muggy air arriving, with our winds getting lighter again later next week…as whatever is left of tropical cyclone Darby likely moves by to the south of the state. This could trigger a period of stronger trade winds for several days then.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
Showers will remain hit and miss…as they get carried our way on the trade winds for the time being. Former tropical depression Celia will help to bring deep tropical moisture our way later Sunday into the middle of the new week. Dew point temperatures will remain quite high into the first half of next week, as former and future tropical systems continue to bring enhanced moisture across the island chain. High dew points bring quite uncomfortable conditions, especially when the trade winds diminish. It should be pointed out, that Celia will be just a swirl of low clouds as it moves by offshore of our islands. The southern periphery of what’s left of Celia, as it moves by a couple of hundred miles to our north, will bring locally heavy rains to Hawaii. Meanwhile, as Darby moves by to the south Hawaii next weekend, we could see the northern periphery of this system bringing possible rains our way then as well…stay tuned.
Marine environment details: A small craft advisory (SCA) is posted for the typically windier waters around Maui County through today.
The remnant low of Tropical Cyclone Celia will pass between the islands and high pressure to the north Sunday into Tuesday, causing winds to turn to the north and diminish. Winds will become light and variable, and then increase from the southeast and east Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Latest guidance indicates seas near Kauai and Oahu will increase as seas/swells due to the gradient between former Celia and the high pressure to the north…requiring a SCA for seas rather than wind.
A south-southwest swell is bringing below advisory level surf to south facing shores today. This swell will subside Sunday and early in the new week. An easterly swell generated by former Celia will effect the islands today…although surf will remain below advisory levels. Larger surf along east facing shores are anticipated Sunday and Monday, with a high surf advisory anticipated. A second easterly swell from distant Hurricane Darby is expected late next week.
Here on Maui – Early Saturday morning is dawning mostly clear to cloudy…with showers falling along the windward sides. The air temperature here at my place in upcountry Kula, was 57F degrees at 539am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting partly cloudy skies, with a temperature of 75 degrees, while Hana was 73 with light rain, Maalaea Bay was 75…with the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 45 degrees.
– Early afternoon, it’s partly to mostly cloudy, with generally light falling in many areas…including here in upcountry Kula.
– Early evening, it’s feeling rather hot and humid up here in Kula, and I’d imagine similar conditions are occurring down country. Otherwise, it’s a great day, after some good showers this morning.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific: Hurricane Darby remains active, remaining a category 2 storm. It’s too early to know for sure, although some of the computer models bring whatever that’s left of Darby moving by relatively close to the islands later next week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Estelle remains active in the eastern Pacific…and should become a Hurricane by Monday.
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Darby continues offshore from Mexico…located about 1175 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
Tropical Storm Estelle is active well offshore from Mexico…located about 470 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing.
1.) A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Some gradual development of this system is possible by the middle of the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:
Tropical Cyclone 01S dissipating in the South Indian Ocean…located about 465 miles west-southwest of Diego Garcia. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area – Final Warning
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Rising Seas Push Too Much Salt Into The Florida Everglades – The Florida Everglades is a swampy wilderness the size of Delaware. In some places along the road in southern Florida, it looks like tall saw grass to the horizon, a prairie punctuated with a few twisted cypress trees. The sky is the palest blue.
But beneath the surface a different story is unfolding. Because of climate change and sea level rise, the ocean is starting to seep into the swampland. If the invasion grows worse, it could drastically change the Everglades, and a way of life for millions of residents in South Florida.
An experiment is going on here to help scientists understand more about what’s likely to happen as the ocean invades. “We’re making, basically, artificial seawater here,” a guy wearing a mosquito net over his face tells me, as he stirs water in a vat the size of a hot tub.
The guy in the mosquito net is Joe Stachelek — a collaborator with Tiffany Troxler, from Florida International University. They’re making salt water and pumping it out into the wetland — dosing the plants and soil with their briny mix as a preview of what the ocean could do.
“As sea level rises,” Troxler explains, “the saltwater wedge moves inland.” And it infiltrates the bedrock.
“Our underlying rock is limestone,” Troxler says. “That limestone is very porous; it’s almost like Swiss cheese in some areas.”
We walk out into the test site — through the saw grass and the underlying peat, which is a fancy name for muck. It’s rich stuff, full of nutrients and microorganisms that feed this river of grass. And, like the plants, the peat also is affected by salt water.
The team has laid out a metal boardwalk, so you can walk around the muck without sinking up to your waist. Out here the grass is patchier, and in some places the peat is slumping — collapsing.
Troxler says there’s lots of this slumping going on. “When we start to lose the structure of the plants,” she explains, “essentially this peat, which is otherwise held together by roots, becomes a soupy pond.”
In response to the salt, the plants actually pull up some of their roots — out of the peat. The roots look like teeth protruding from receding gums.
This could be the future of the Everglades, Troxler says. And here’s the thing: The Everglades acts like sponge, feeding off the Biscayne aquifer — a giant cell of freshwater that lies underneath the land.
“We get over 90 percent of our freshwater from the Biscayne aquifer,” Troxler says, “we” meaning millions of people in South Florida.
As seawater seeps up from underneath, through the limestone bedrock, it is contaminating the aquifer and the Everglades above it.
That’s starting to worry some people. Like Julie Hill-Gabriel, who directs Everglades policy for the National Audubon Society in Florida. She says she tells people in South Florida, “What we do in the Everglades is 100 percent going to affect you in your neighborhood — [and whether] when you turn on the tap water, you have enough fresh clean water.”
For millennia, fresh water flowed south to the Everglades, making it the largest flooded grassland in America. But over the past several decades, that water was diverted to irrigate agricultural fields, and to keep homes from flooding. Environmental groups like Audubon have been trying to restore the natural flow to the Everglades, mostly to preserve wildlife.
Now, Hill-Gabriel says, there’s a new reason for that restoration — to repel the invading sea. Putting more freshwater back into the sponge that is the Everglades could create a kind of “back pressure” to keep seawater out.
“It just really compounds the urgency to move that freshwater south,” says Hill-Gabriel.
At least that’s the theory.
When it comes to climate change in South Florida, much of the focus until now has been about protecting property with pumps and barriers. But James Cason, the Republican mayor of the city of Coral Gables, says he hopes his constituents can understand the importance of protecting the Everglades as well.
“It’s not just so they can see the alligators,” Cason says. “It’s because they’ll want to make sure the drinking water on which we all depend is not contaminated.”
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