Air Temperatures – The following maxiumum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

81 – 70  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 68  Molokai AP
89 – 65  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 75  Kailua Kona
86 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Monday evening:

1.34  Kilohana, Kauai
0.40  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.88  Kula Branch Station, Maui
1.93  Pahala, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

15  Poipu, Kauai
28  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
22  Molokai
24  Lanai
23  Kahoolawe
27  Kahului AP, Maui
27  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Hurricane Celia & Tropical Storm Darby far to the east-southeast of Hawaii


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP04/refresh/EP0416W5_NL+gif/203556W5_NL_sm.gif
Hurricane Celia…has weakened to a category 1 system

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Hurricane Celia…with a counterclockwise rotating cloud signature…and a faint cloud filled eye

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What the models are showing for Celia


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP05/refresh/EP0516W5_NL+gif/205128W5_NL_sm.gif
Tropical Storm Darby…on its way to becoming a hurricane

 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05E/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif
Tropical Storm Darby…a relatively compact storm thus far

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep201605_model.gif
What the models show for Tropical Storm Darby

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
We see thunderstorms far southwest of the state…and a few northeast and south

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy in most areas…with high Cirrus clouds looming to the southwest

 

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Showers locally…a couple are quite generous – Looping radar image


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The trade winds will be lighter, as we move through this new week…increasing again by the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, 1033 millibar high pressure system in the area far north of Hawaii. At the same time, we see a trough of low pressure just to the east…about to move through the state. Our trade winds are expected to lose some of their strength, as this trough of low pressure interrupts the trade wind flow to some extent.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast

There will be a few showers…although not many for the time being. There will be a few generous showers around locally, which are being triggered by this trough of low pressure noted above. We may see a new batch of moisture arriving Tuesday, associated with now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. Further down the line, we may find leftover moisture from now retired tropical cyclone Blas as well, getting carried towards us later this week by Thursday or Friday. We have an even longer wait to see what, if any, weather that Hurricane Celia may bring our way early next week…stay tuned.

Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: We have the second hurricane of the 2016 season, in the form of Hurricane Celia, which has become a category 2 storm today. Looking at the latest computer model runs, they show Celia moving closer to the Hawaiian Islands around July 17-18. Meanwhile, there’s yet another tropical disturbance that has spun up in the eastern Pacific…which is called Tropical Storm Darby, soon strengthening into Tropical Storm Darby. Computer models show that this storm has the potential to intensify into a hurricane later in the week. If not all that wasn’t enough, there’s another tropical disturbance that may generate into a tropical cyclone that has a 0% chance of developing over the next 2-days…increasing to 60% within 5-days. [More information about these matters down the page.]

Marine environment details: The current south swell is lowering in size steadily. A new, small south swell is expected by Friday. The east swell from former Hurricane Blas is also subsiding. A new easterly swell from current Hurricane Celia…will build later this week.

Winds and seas will remain below the small craft advisory threshold through at least the end of this work week.

 

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Here on Maui – Early Monday morning is dawning mostly clear. These clouds are dropping a few showers this morning as well. I see some cane smoke in the central valley, caused by a sugar cane burn earlier in the morning. The air temperature was a cool 48.2F degrees at 542am here at my place in upcountry Kula. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 65 degrees, while Hana was 68, with Maalaea Bay reporting 66…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 43 degrees. 

– Early afternoon, clear to partly cloudy, with some additional clouds over and around the mountains. Yet another lovely summer day here in the tropics! / Just as I was heading out on my early afternoon walk it started to shower. It seems to be building up some steam, with off and on little harder moments coming down. The clouds continue to darken up here on the mountain, with more showers…although looking down towards the north shore beaches, it’s sunny and nearly cloud free. / Now at 2pm, it’s raining steadily…and our temperature here in Kula…has dropped into the cool 60’s. / Even though it’s still raining here in Kula, I can see that it’s hot and sunny down at the beach towards the Kahului airport. / Now at 410pm, it appears that clouds have overtaken the entire island, with showers falling in several locations. Here in Kula the rains have backed off quite a bit…although there are still a few light drops falling.

– Early evening, the afternoon showers have ended, with skies clearing and lots sunshine beaming down now.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –


>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Celia remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific…located about 1280 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along a satellite image of this hurricane…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm Darby continues offshore from Mexico…located about 345 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this area…and the computer models are showing. 

1.)  An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_pac_5d0.png

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Where Did Earth’s Water Come From? – Look at Earth compared to other rocky planets in the neighborhood, and the first thing that would likely jump out is that there’s A LOT of water. So how did 70 percent of our planet’s surface become covered in this essential life ingredient?

That question is the subject of lively scientific debate, it turns out.

There are two prevailing theories: One is that the Earth held onto some water when it formed, as there would have been ice in the nebula of gas and dust (called the proto-solar nebula) that eventually formed the sun and the planets about 4.5 billion years ago. Some of that water has remained with the Earth, and might be recycled through the planet’s mantle layer, according to one theory.

The second theory holds that the Earth, Venus, Mars and Mercury would have been close enough to that proto-solar nebula that most of their water would have been vaporized by heat; these planets would have formed with little water in their rocks. In Earth’s case, even more water would have been vaporized when the collision that formed the moon happened. In this scenario, instead of being home-grown, the oceans would have been delivered by ice-rich asteroids, called carbonaceous chondrites.

Follow the water

Scientists can track the origin of Earth’s water by looking at the ratio of two isotopes of hydrogen, or versions of hydrogen with a different number of neutrons, that occur in nature. One is ordinary hydrogen, which has just a proton in the nucleus, and the other is deuterium, also known as “heavy” hydrogen, which has a proton and a neutron.

The ratio of deuterium to hydrogen in Earth’s oceans seems to closely match that of asteroids, which are often rich in water and other elements such as carbon and nitrogen, rather than comets. (Whereas asteroids are small rocky bodies that orbit the sun, comets are icy bodies sometimes called dirty snowballs that release gas and dust and are thought to be leftovers from the solar system’s formation.)

Scientists have also discovered opals in meteorites that originated among asteroids (they are likely pieces knocked off of asteroids). Since opals need water to form, this finding was another indication of water coming from space rocks. These two pieces of evidence would favor an asteroid origin. In addition, deuterium tends to gather farther out in the solar system than hydrogen does, so water formed in the outer regions of the system would tend to be deuterium-rich.

And on top of that, the rocky inner planets hold relatively little water (relative to their masses) compared with the icy moons of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, and even the gas giants themselves. That would support the idea that in the inner system, the water evaporated, while in the outer system, it didn’t. If water evaporated on Earth it would have to be replaced from somewhere else, and water-rich asteroids are abundant in the outer reaches of the system.

More supporting evidence comes from NASA’s DAWN spacecraft, launched in 2007, which found evidence of water on Ceres and Vesta, the two largest objects in the main asteroid belt located between Mars and Jupiter.

Earth’s water is complicated

A slam dunk for asteroids? Not so fast. For this scenario to work, the isotope ratio had to have stayed the same in the oceans over the last few billion years.

But what if it didn’t?

Lydia Hallis, a planetary scientist with the University of Glasgow in the United Kingdom, thinks that the hydrogen present on the early Earth had much less deuterium in it than it does now. The ratio changed because in the early history of the Earth the radiation from the sun heated up both hydrogen and deuterium. Hydrogen, being lighter, was more likely to fly off into outer space, leaving more deuterium behind.

Also, in the last several years, newer models seem to show that the Earth retained a lot of water as it formed, and that the oceans might have been present for much longer than anyone thought.

Hallis and her colleagues looked at hydrogen isotope ratios in ancient Canadian rocks, some of the oldest rocks on Earth. The isotope ratios looked a lot less like asteroids and a lot more like the water one would expect from the early solar nebula in the region — the rocks had more ordinary hydrogen and less deuterium. But the current ocean ratio looks like asteroids. That would seem to indicate something changed in the last few billion years. The research was published in Science in 2015.

If the Earth’s oceans were formed from water on our own planet, rather than asteroids, that would solve a couple of problems for planetary scientists. One is why Earth seems to have so much water in the first place. Another is why life, which as far as anyone knows requires water, seems to have appeared so quickly once the Earth had a solid surface.

Besides the work of Hallis, other scientists have studied ways water could be recycled from Earth’s interior. In 2014, Wendy Panero, an associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State, and doctoral student Jeff Pigott proposed the theory that Earth was formed with entire oceans of water in its interior. Via plate tectonics, that water has been supplying the oceans. They studied garnet, and found it could work with another mineral, called ringwoodite, to deliver water to the Earth’s interior – water that would later come up as the mantle material circulated.

Complicating the picture, neither of these hypotheses is mutually exclusive. Asteroids could deliver water while some could come from the Earth’s interior. The question is how much each would deliver — and how to find that out.