Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
81 – 70 Lihue, Kauai
82 – 72 Honolulu, Oahu
81 – 71 Molokai AP
84 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui
91 – 73 Kailua Kona
81 – 71 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Tuesday evening:
1.27 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.65 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.43 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.01 Kahoolawe
2.17 West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.55 Piihonua, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:
27 Port Allen, Kauai
36 Kuaokala, Oahu
30 Molokai
35 Lanai
33 Kahoolawe
25 Maalaea Bay, Maui
33 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
Low pressure systems far northeast and north of Hawaii, with their
trailing cold fronts…a tropical disturbance far east-southeast
of Hawaii
Thick high cirrus clouds well offshore to the west, a few thunderstorms
far northeast…with numerous thunderstorms far south of the islands
Generally clear…clouds approaching the windward sides
Just a few showers – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Moderate trade winds will continue through the week…a bit stronger at times locally. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems far north and northeast of Hawaii. There’s an area of low pressure well offshore to the northeast of the state, with the tail-end of its associated cold front/trough to our northeast. The forecast shows the trade winds bringing moderately strong breezes our way through the rest of this week into next week.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
We can look for a drier than normal trade wind weather pattern through Friday, then increasing showers during the upcoming weekend…into early next week. Drier air continues to stream over the state, so that fewer showers will fall along windward sides than we’ve seen recently. Given the strength of the trades, an occasional shower may also drift into leeward areas of the smaller islands, particularly during the night and early morning hours. As we get into Friday night and the weekend, we’ll find an increase in showers, mostly over the windward sides…although not exclusively. The atmosphere will become shower prone and unstable, leading to more widespread showers, with localized downpours at times into early next week. You may be wondering, is this unusual…the answer is certainly yes!
Marine environment details: A small craft advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island, and will likely be extended in time, as winds are not expected to diminish below SCA speeds the next couple of days. The zones around South Point on the Big Island are not currently included in the SCA, but may need to be added as winds veer a little more easterly the next couple of days. A few zones around Kauai are currently in the SCA, but winds are expected to drop just below SCA speeds in these zones by this evening.
A prolonged fetch of gale to near storm force winds east of New Zealand, will send several pulses of south swell towards the islands. Surf will build later this week, continue through the weekend, and remain elevated into next week. Surf is expected to gradually build from late Wednesday into Friday as one pulse arrives, with the next pulse peaking Sunday, and then again around next Tuesday. A high surf advisory appears likely for south facing shores of all islands for these swells, and there’s a chance surf could approach the south shore high surf warning level by Sunday.
A large south swell will arrive later this week…
breaking along our leeward beaches
Here on Maui – Early Tuesday morning is dawning partly to mostly cloudy, at least as far as I can see from here in upcountry Kula. Looking out the windows of my weather tower, before sunrise, it’s cloudy and foggy, and my weather deck is still wet. The air temperature was 57.7F degrees at 540am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului AP was reporting cloudy skies, with an air temperature of 73 degrees, while out in Hana it was 70, with 73 at Maalaea Bay…and finally the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 50 degrees. / Now at 620am, the clouds have cleared quite a bit here in Kula, and I can see lots of cloud free areas across much of the island. As the clouds have cleared here at my place, the temperature has dipped to 54.5 degrees.
– Early afternoon, an incredible day weatherwise…one of the best in a long time! Sunny and dry to da max, not showers in any direction. / Now at 250pm, most areas are almost totally clear, with even the Haleakala slopes near cloud free…spectacular.
– Early evening, a very special day…with near perfect weather conditions prevailing.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: Former Tropical Depression 01E – Last Advisory
Remnants of Tropical Depression 01E dissipates along the southeastern coast of Mexico, located about 30 miles east-northeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: The remnants of One-E are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches over portions of southeastern Mexico. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
1.) A low pressure area located about 1450 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing sporadic bursts of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions have become less conducive, and development of this system is unlikely.
Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91E…along with what the computer models are showing
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next two days…
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: US counties could gain $1 million in annual health benefits from a power plant carbon standard – Nearly all U.S. regions stand to gain economic benefits from power plant carbon standards that set moderately stringent emission targets and allow a high level of compliance flexibility, according to a new study by scientists from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Syracuse University, Resources for the Future, and the Harvard Forest, Harvard University as a project of the Science Policy Exchange.
The study was published today, June 7, 2016, in the open access journal PLOS ONE. The authors report large national net benefits of approximately $33 billion per year for the power plant carbon standard in the study, based on estimated costs of $17 billion per year and projected benefits of $29 billion for a subset of health co-benefits, and $21 billion for climate benefits.
While other studies have analyzed total national costs and benefits of power plant carbon standards, this is the first study of its kind to break down the costs and benefits by sub region for the entire U.S.
“We found that the health benefits would outweigh the estimated costs of the carbon standard in our study for 13 out of 14 power sector regions within five years of implementation–even though we only looked at a subset of the total benefits,” said lead author Jonathan Buonocore, Research Associate and Program Leader at the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Chan School.
“With the full range of climate, health, and ecosystem benefits taken into account, we would expect that the net benefits would be even larger and that the benefits would outweigh costs in all regions within a year or two of implementation,” added co-author Dallas Burtraw, Darius Gaskins Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future.
Power plant carbon standards are aimed at curbing carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector to help address climate change. Depending on how the standards are designed, emissions of secondary pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter may also be reduced as a co-benefit of the policy–leading to improved air quality and associated health benefits such as fewer premature deaths, heart attacks, and hospitalizations from respiratory and cardiovascular impacts.
The study analyzed the anticipated health co-benefits of a power plant carbon standard that would achieve a 35% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020 through cleaner fuels, energy efficiency, emissions trading, and other measures. In a previous study, the researchers projected that approximately 3,500 premature deaths and hundreds of heart attacks and hospitalizations would be avoided in the U.S. each year as a result of this carbon standard. In this new study, the researchers calculated the economic value of those health co-benefits for the nation as a whole by county. Then they compared those benefits to costs that they projected for 14 commonly used power grid regions to estimate net benefits by region.
The researchers found that the benefits would be widespread and, before accounting for costs, most counties would receive more than $1 million in health co-benefits annually from the carbon standard in the study. Counties in the Northeast and Southwest U.S. are projected to gain the largest health co-benefits. The Mid-Atlantic, Ohio River Valley, and South-Central regions of the U.S. are projected to gain the largest health co-benefits per capita (these regions correspond to the power grid regions PJME, PJMC, MISO, SERCC, SERCD, and ERCOT).
The researchers then used three different sets of economic assumptions to estimate the cost of the carbon standard for each of the 14 regions. The results show that the highest costs of $1.5 to $3.6 billion per year are projected for the Midwest (MISO and SERCG), Mid-Atlantic (PJME), and Southeast (SERCC and SERCSE) regions under the central cost case. Those same regions also have among the greatest benefits, ranging from $1.7 billion to $5.6 billion. The largest net benefits occur in the Central Mid-Atlantic region (PJMC).
“Our results suggest that net economic benefits from power plant carbon standards tend to be greatest in highly populated areas near or downwind from coal-fired power plants that experience a shift to cleaner sources with the standards,” said co-author Charles Driscoll, University Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University.
The power plant carbon standards analyzed in this study are similar to, but not the same as, the Clean Power Plan introduced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on August 3, 2015. The standard in the study would achieve a 35% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector from 2005 levels by 2020. The costs and benefits were calculated as the difference from a business-as-usual case based on 2013 energy demand projections from the U.S. Department of Energy and Energy Information Administration. The U.S. EPA Clean Power Plan aims to achieve a 32% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 and uses a business as usual case with updated energy demand, natural gas prices, and renewable and energy efficiency assumptions.
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