Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

81 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu

84 – 73  Molokai AP
87 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 75  Kailua Kona
83 – 71 
Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Monday evening:

1.81  Kilohana, Kauai
1.68  Palisades,
Oahu
0.40  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
2.18  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.66  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

27  Port Allen, Kauai
36
  Kuaokala, Oahu
28  Molokai
30  Lanai

30  Kahoolawe
31  Maalaea Bay, Maui

30  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
High cirrus clouds coming up from the southwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Thunderstorms well offshore south and west

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
High and middle level clouds in most directions…these clouds provide good sunset and sunrise colors at times

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers over the islands locally…a few are rather generous –
Looping radar image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Trade winds remaining active, calming down a little mid-week…before increasing rather significantly Friday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing high pressure systems in the area north-northwest and northeast of Hawaii. These high pressure cells are forecast to maintain both their presence, and general strength for the time being. At the same time, we see a surface trough of low pressure just northeast of Hawaii. This will prompt somewhat lighter winds Tuesday through Thursday. Towards the later part of the week, our trade winds are expected to increase a notch or two into the weekend. We may see unusual gale force winds blowing across some parts of the state then.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic showing vog forecast

There will be a few passing showers through Tuesday…primarily focused along the windward sides. Satellite imagery shows patches of clouds upstream to the northeast for the time being. The models are suggesting we could see a batch of wetter clouds arriving around Wednesday…bringing increased showers our way for a few days then. The overlying atmosphere may become unstable enough, that some of this shower activity may become locally quite heavy, with the outside chance of an unusual thunderstorm flaring up here and there then.

Starting Thursday night, the atmosphere over the islands will become quite stable and very dry air will spread over the area from the east. Wind speeds will increase significantly by the weekend, with low humidity…which will boost the fire danger during the 4th of July holiday weekend.

Marine environment details: A strong high pressure system far northwest of the area will produce strong trade winds today, so the small craft advisory has been expanded to include some of the waters around Kauai. The trades will subside over the next few days, as a low aloft drops south over the area, and the surface high weakens. A new high pressure cell will build northeast of the area during the second half of the week. That high is forecast to become unusually strong, and could push the trade winds up near gale force in the windier areas over the holiday weekend.

Surf will remain below high surf advisory levels along all shores for at least the next few days. The current south swell will persist through Tuesday. After that, smaller than normal surf is expected along south facing shores through the holiday weekend. Fairly small but rough surf along east facing shores will subside tomorrow, as the trade winds weaken. Surf will build again along the east facing shores over the weekend as the trades strengthen again.

 

   http://webebananas.com/bpix/BP940-31.jpg


Here on Maui
– Early Monday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy, with the wispy high cirrus clouds lighting up a beautiful orange around sunrise! The air temperature was 51.8F degrees at 535am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting cloudy skies, with a temperature of 75 degrees, while Hana was at 75 as well, as was Maalaea…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 43 degrees.

Mid-afternoon, another sunny to partly cloudy day, with localized cloudy spots. There are some nice little patches of high clouds too, which may give us a colorful sunset…if they’re still around then.

Early evening, and it’s pretty cloudy in all directions, at least looking out from my upcountry Kula weather tower. We’re having a light shower here in Kula, with foggy conditions just a short ways up the mountain from here. I don’t see a ray of sunshine anywhere I look. If there aren’t too many lower level clouds…we might see some color at sunset.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity –

 

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is expected to move into the eastern North Pacific later today, and then induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of the disturbance through this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: No active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
No active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 02A remains active in the Arabian Sea, located approximately 253 NM east of Masirah Island. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map, a satellite image of this system.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Wind-blown Antarctic sea ice helps drive ocean circulation
Antarctic sea ice is constantly on the move as powerful winds blow it away from the coast and out toward the open ocean. A new study shows how that ice migration may be more important for the global ocean circulation than anyone realized.

A team of scientists used a computer model to synthesize millions of ocean and ice observations collected over six years near Antarctica, and estimated, for the first time, the influence of sea ice, glacier ice, precipitation and heating on ocean overturning circulation. Overturning circulation brings deep water and nutrients up to the surface, carries surface water down, and distributes heat and helps store carbon dioxide as it flows through the world’s oceans, making it an important force in the global climate system. The scientists found that freshwater played the most powerful role in changing water density, which drives circulation, and that melting of wind-blown sea ice contributed 10 times more freshwater than melting of land-based glaciers did.

A vital contributor to the process, the scientists discovered, was the seasonal migration of the ice, which is largely driven by winds. If the sea ice were instead forming and melting in the same place, there would be no net effect.

“If you were to turn off these winds and eliminate that pathway for moving sea ice away from Antarctica, you would probably significantly reduce the strength of the overturning circulation,” said lead author Ryan Abernathey, an oceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

The study, published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, uses a sophisticated approach to examine on the complex problem of what is happening down under the ice, where direct observations are hard to come by. It provides new insight into the basic physics of the ocean that may be critical for answering future questions about climate change, such as how loss of sea ice or changing winds could affect global ocean circulation, said Abernathey.

“Everyone is asking, is sea ice expanding or contracting? We’re coming at it from a different perspective: What does sea ice do to the underlying ocean?” Abernathey said.

When sea ice forms around the edges of Antarctica each winter, the salt in the ocean water doesn’t freeze; it stays behind. That makes the water near the coast much saltier and therefore denser than water off shore. Denser water sinks, and in doing so pushes less dense water up, driving circulation. Meanwhile, as sea ice melts farther out in the open ocean, it deposits its less-dense freshwater, moving denser water down.

Scientists have known for some time that changes in water density, particularly the sinking of cold, saline water, contribute to the ocean’s “abyssal circulation,” the deepest, coldest branch of the ocean conveyor belt, which moves cold Antarctic water northward along the ocean bottom. What has been less well understood is the role salinity might play in the “upper circulation,” which carries mid-depth water up to the surface in the Southern Ocean and eventually toward the tropics.

Using an analysis technique called water-mass transformation, the scientists were able to quantify the rate at which ice freezing and melt contribute to the upper circulation by making water near the coast denser and water in the open ocean lighter.

Ocean circulation is critical to the climate system because it distributes heat and helps store carbon dioxide in the deep ocean. Major climate changes in the past, including glacial periods, are believed to have involved changes in ocean circulation. To understand how circulation may be changing today, the next steps will be to look more closely at how salinity and wind speeds changed in the past, Abernathey said.

“This work shows really clearly that Antarctic sea ice plays a crucial role in the circulation of the world’s oceans,” said coauthor Paul Holland of the British Antarctic Survey. “We have known for many years that the freezing of Antarctic sea ice in winter is responsible for forming the very deepest waters in the world oceans, but this study shows that melting the ice in summer also governs the formation of shallower waters. This advance has only been made possible by the state-of-the-art computer model used in this study, which assimilated millions of ocean observations.”