Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the minimums Saturday:

79 – 66  Lihue, Kauai
81 – 66  Honolulu, Oahu
76 – 65  Molokai AP
77 – 65  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 68  Kailua Kona
78 – 67  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:

0.31  Kilohana, Kauai
0.24  Tunnel RG, Oahu
1.22  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
3.50  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.25  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:

24  Poipu, Kauai – NE
29  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
29  Molokai – N
31  Lanai – NE
32  Kahaloowe – NE
29  Kapalua, Maui – N 
33  Kealakomo, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
A new storm is brewing to the northwest of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
The next cold front is approaching from the northwest

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Low clouds across the state…mostly along the
windward sides…generally clear to partly cloudy
over the leeward areas

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers falling over the windward sides locally
looping radar image

 

Small Craft Advisory…coastal and channel waters across
all of the state of Hawaii

High Surf Advisory…for north and west shores of Kauai,
Oahu, Molokai, and north shores Maui and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Gusty trade winds for a while longer…then lighter winds during the work week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find high pressure systems to the northeast, and just north of Hawaii, with an associated ridge of high pressure to our north. At the same time, we see a storm low pressure system far to the north…with the tail-end of its associated cold front over the ocean to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Meanwhile, there’s a new low pressure system moving eastward, to the northwest of Hawaii. Trade winds will remain at about the same strength as we move through most of Sunday. The models are suggesting that the trade winds will fade away starting Monday. They will become lighter southeast to southerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest and west…carrying volcanic haze over the smaller islands Monday into Tuesday.

There will be windward showers at times into Sunday…and then some showers arriving from the deeper tropics. Clouds will continue to provide some passing showers along the windward coasts and slopes. The leeward sides should be fine, with lots of warm daytime sunshine gracing those areas Sunday. A rather distinct weather change during the new week will bring showers to the islands, as an area of low pressure moves into our area, along with its associated cold front…that’s expected to stall before arriving. The showers generated by this low pressure and front combination, may last in an off and on manner through much of the work week, and could become locally heavy…with the chance of a few thunderstorms. I’m still not totally clear about how this unsettled weather pattern will play out, although it’s looking more and more likely that we’ll see the chance for solid rainfall across all of the state at times – stay tuned.

 

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Marine environment details: An incoming northwest swell, combined with a declining north swell, will keep surf above advisory levels into Sunday. Surf heights for affected north and west shores have been nudged a few feet higher. Overall the observations for the declining north swell trended towards the model guidance, however still remain slightly higher. Swell values for the overnight period were increased slightly from guidance to reflect this.

Breezy trade winds combined with the north and northwest swells will produce small craft advisory conditions through the weekend. Winds and swells will ease by the beginning of the work week…as will the likelihood of small craft conditions.

Additional beach erosion, with water sweeping over beaches and possibly over the typically vulnerable roadways, is likely with the north and northwest swell events. In addition to the surf, breaking waves may impact harbors making navigation more difficult.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic – showing vog forecast

Here in Maui County…It was clear leeward sections, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions and a few light showers along the windward sides…early this Saturday morning. Here in upcountry Kula, it was mostly clear and calm, with the air temperature 45.6F degrees just before sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 65 degrees down in Kahului under mostly cloudy skies, 72 out in Hana with cloudy skies, 66 at Maalaea Bay, and 41 atop the Haleakala summit. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 63 degrees, 63 at Lanai City, with 66 at the Molokai airport…with partly cloudy skies. / Now at 710am, I see a sugar cane fire in the central valley, which looks like its sending lots of smoke towards Kihei.

– Early Saturday evening, looking about like it did earlier in the day, with clear to partly cloudy conditions…although those low clouds and some passing showers remain active along the windward sides.

Friday Evening Film: My friends Jeff and Svetlana just flew back from Boulder, Colorado, and I didn’t have a chance to speak with them about which film we should see. So, I made an executive decision, and picked the film called London Has Fallen, starring Gerard Butler, Aaron Eckhart, Morgan Freeman, Melissa Leo, Angela Bassett, and Charlotte Riley…among many others. The synopsis: the sequel to “Olympus Has Fallen.” The story begins in London, where the British Prime Minister has passed away under mysterious circumstances. His funeral is a must-attend event for leaders of the western world. However, what starts out as the most protected event on Earth, turns into a deadly plot to kill the world’s most powerful leaders, devastate every known landmark in the British capital, and unleash a terrifying vision of the future. Only three people have any hope of stopping it: the President of the United States (Aaron Eckhart), his formidable Secret Service head (Gerard Butler), and an English MI-6 agent who rightly trusts no one.

Let me start off by saying that Svetlana gave this film a C grade, Jeff a B minus, and I liked it a bit more than that, giving it a solid B grade. Now that we’ve got those relatively low ratings out of the way, I should say that I enjoyed this piece of work quite a lot. The movie critics weren’t fond of this film, despite the talented cast. Here’s a few short snippets of what critics were saying: a troubled film with a ridiculous story; gives generic action films a bad name; as a pretty average video game this might possibly have passed muster…but as a big-screen movie it’s woeful; ends up as insensitively timed hogwash…and finally – London Has Fallen is Donald Trump in film form! Oh my, I think you have a good idea about what many critics had on their minds. So, how could I have given it a solid B grade, that’s a valid question, although I’m sticking to my guns…and there were plenty of those being fired in this film! If after all that you would still like to take a quick peek…here’s the trailer.

 

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 15S (Emeraude) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, with winds of 70 knots and gusts of 85 knots…located approximately 919 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, a NOAA satellite image, a near real time wind profile…and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Climate Change Redistributes Global Water Resources – Rising temperatures worldwide are changing not only weather systems, but – just as importantly – the distribution of water around the globe, according to a study published March 14, 2016 in the journal, “Scientific Reports.”

Analysis of more than 40 years of water samples archived at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire tells a vivid tale of how the sources of precipitation have changed. Over the years, there has been a dramatic increase, especially during the winter, of the amount of water that originated far to the north.

“In the later years, we saw more water derived from evaporation of the Arctic and the North Atlantic oceans,” said Tamir Puntsag, a graduate student at the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry (ESF) in Syracuse, New York, and the lead author on the study.

This study marked the first time scientists have used specific measurements to demonstrate how water sources are changing, especially in the northeastern United States. “Climate change has an important relationship to the water cycle. It goes beyond temperature effects,” said co-author Myron Mitchell, an ESF biogeochemist/ecologist who is Puntsag’s major professor. “This study shows how climate change is altering the spatial patterns and amounts of precipitation – where it comes from and where it falls. Such effects can drastically affect the availability of potable water and also contribute to the massive flooding we have seen in recent years.”

“Scientific Reports” is an online journal from the publishers of “Nature.” Other researchers involved in the study were John L. Campbell, a former doctoral student of Mitchell’s affiliated with the U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station in Durham, New Hampshire; Eric S. Klein of the University of Alaska Anchorage, Biological Sciences Department; Gene E. Likens of the Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies in Millbrook, New York; and Jeffrey M. Welker, also of the University of Alaska Anchorage.

As record warmer temperatures in the Arctic cause dramatic decreases in the depth and coverage of sea ice, the Arctic vortex (often called the polar vortex) has become less stable, occasionally spilling frigid air onto the eastern United States, such as occurred in October 2015 and February 2016, when areas from New York to Miami experienced record cold. The altered circulation of moisture in the atmosphere drives changes in the global water cycle, causing, for example, Arctic water to fall as rain or snow in New Hampshire, some 2,500 miles to the south.

Mitchell said the findings of the study will help scientists understand changes that are likely to affect global water resources. With 85 percent of the world’s population living in the driest half of the planet and 783 million people living without access to clean water, according to the UN, it is vital for scientists and policymakers to understand how a changing climate affects water resources.

“Our research helps our understanding of the sources of rain and snow and how these precipitation patterns have changed. Our study also sheds light on what is going to happen to water resources in the future,” Mitchell said. “This is another clear indication that climate change is happening and we’re seeing evidence of it today. If we are going to understand how water and temperature interact, it is important to understand how climate change, including alterations in the water cycle, affect us locally, regionally and globally.”

Puntsag used isotopic analysis (identification of the structure of the atoms that make up a substance, such as water) to develop a story of the water’s travels. Water always contains two atoms of hydrogen and one atom of oxygen but its isotopic composition can vary from one water source to another. Puntsag also used mathematical models to trace the sources of these water sources in precipitation at the HBEF. She examined samples collected weekly between 1968 and 2010.