Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

77 – 70  Lihue, Kauai
81 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu

8068  Molokai AP
8267  Kahului AP, Maui
78 – 68  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

0.82  Kilohana, Kauai
0.17  Nuuanu Upper,
Oahu
0.33  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.17  Mahinahina, Maui
2.19  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
42  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
27  Molokai – ENE
28  Lanai – NE

28  Kahaloowe – NE
31  Kahului AP, Maui – NNE 

40  Pali 2, Big Island – NNE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Pacific storm track remains far north of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Large area of high clouds well southwest and south of Hawaii

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Low clouds mixed with clear skies

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally…generally falling along the windward sides
looping radar image


Small Craft Advisory
…windiest coasts and channels around
Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Strong and gusty trade winds…gradually giving way to variable wind speeds and directions Friday into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a large high pressure system north-northwest of Hawaii, with an associated ridge extending eastward well to the north of the islands. In addition, there’s several storm low pressure systems far to the north and northwest of Hawaii. There’s an associated cold front far to our northwest, which will be approaching the state over the next several days. The gusty trade winds should taper off Friday, and then become lighter ahead of another cold front approaching the islands during the weekend. As this cold front gets closer to our area however, it may prompt a brief period of strong and gusty southwest to westerly winds, at least over those exposed windiest areas around the state. Our winds will turn cooler and lighter from the north, in the wake of the front’s passage early next week…followed by light breezes into the middle of next week.

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view

Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol…animated graphic showing vog forecast

The trade winds will bring off and on showers into our windward sides…into Saturday morning. The leeward sides, and especially the beaches, should have better weather, albeit with occasional showers being carried over to those areas on the strong and gusty trade winds for the time being.  Showers should increase again as another cold front approaches the islands this weekend by Sunday into early next week. The latest model runs show this cold front passing down into, or through the state into next Monday. This frontal passage (fropa) will likely bring some decent shower activity, most of which will be deposited along the windward coasts and slopes, although not exclusively. Somewhat cooler and generally drier weather will arrive early next week for several days…followed by another possible cold front around the middle of next week.

Here in Maui CountyIt’s mostly clear over the leeward sides early this Thursday morning, with clouds and showers along the windward sides. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 43.5F degrees well before sunrise. The temperature at near the same time was 68 degrees down in Kahului with light rain falling, 68 out in Hana…and 46 atop the Haleakala Crater. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe was 63 degrees, 66 at Lanai City, with 69 at the Molokai airport with light rain.

Early afternoon, under clear to partly cloudy skies, with some cloudy areas windward…and smokey from the brush fire on the south side of Maui.

Early evening, partly cloudy conditions, with cloudier skies and some passing showers along the windward sides, as it typically the case when gusty trade winds are blowing.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:


Tropical Cyclone 11P (Winston)
remains active in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, located 239 NM east of Suva, Fiji, with sustained winds of 144 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea:

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Uriah) remains active in the South Indian Ocean, located 1110 NM south-southeast of Diego Garcia, with sustained winds of 58 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
UCLA studies the long-term health impacts of ozone
– Adults with long-term exposure to ozone (O3) face an increased risk of dying from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, a study “Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality in a Large Prospective Study” published online, ahead of print in the American Thoracic Society’s American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine suggests.

Using data from a large U.S. study begun in 1982, researchers found that every additional 10 parts per billion (ppb) in long-term ozone exposure increased the risk of dying by:

  • 12 percent from lung disease
  • 3 percent from cardiovascular disease
  • 2 percent from all causes


Researchers said the increased risk of death was highest for diabetes (16 percent), followed by dysrhythmias, heart failure and cardiac arrest (15 percent) and by COPD (14 percent).

“About 130 million people are living in areas that exceed the National Ambient Air Quality standard,” said Michael Jerrett, chair of environmental health sciences at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and study co-author. “While ozone has decreased in the U.S., the reductions are not nearly as big as decreases in other pollutants, and elsewhere in the world, ozone is a growing problem.”

The authors analyzed data from nearly 670,000 records in the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study (CPS-II). Begun in 1982, the study enrolled participants from all 50 states; the average age at enrollment was 55. The researchers matched cause of death over 22 years with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Centers for Disease Control air quality data. During that time, more than 237,000 participants died.

Researchers took into account fine particulate (PM2.5) pollution, an established cause of premature mortality, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution, which has been linked to premature mortality. They adjusted for 29 behavioral and demographic factors, including smoking, alcohol use, body weight, occupational exposures, diet, poverty and race.

Researchers found the association between ozone and mortality began at 35 ppb, based on the annual 8-hour average. They said that many communities are above this level, suggesting further reductions in ozone would have immediate health benefits. Jerrett added that reducing ozone, a potent greenhouse gas, would also provide future health benefits by reducing climate change.

Researchers were surprised by one finding: near-source PM2.5, largely attributable to traffic, was more strongly associated with death from cardiovascular disease than regional PM2.5, largely attributable to fossil-fuel burning and secondary formation of the particles in the atmosphere. With each 10-ppb increase in near-source PM2.5, mortality rate rose 41 percent, compared to 7 percent for regional source.

The study has some limitations, which include a lack of updated data on residential history, selection bias stemming from the exclusion of participants with missing or invalid residence data and a lack of historical ozone data.

But the findings still give a clearer picture of air pollution’s harmful effects, said Michelle C. Turner, lead author and a research fellow at the McLaughlin Center for Population Health Risk Assessment in Ottawa, Canada and the Center for Research in Environmental Epidemiology ISGlobal Alliance in Barcelona, Spain. A previous study with fewer participants, shorter follow-up and less detailed exposure models found ozone was associated with a smaller (4 percent) increase in respiratory deaths. In this larger study, researchers were also able to focus on specific causes of mortality.

“The burden of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality from ozone may be much greater than previously recognized,” she said.

The Canadian government, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health, provided funding for this study.