Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:

86 – 64  Lihue, Kauai – Broke the all time high (83) for the date…set back in 1969
80 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu

8265  Molokai AP
8462  Kahului AP, Maui

80 – 72  Kona AP
8662  Hilo, Hawaii Tied the all time high for the date…set back in 1977

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:

0.02  Kilohana, Kauai
0.10  Mililani,
Oahu
0.01  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.15  Ulupalakua, Maui
0
.52  Piihonua, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:

15  Poipu, Kauai – SW
15  Wheeler AAF
, Oahu – SE
12  Molokai – NE
13  Lanai – SW

12  Kahoolawe – SSW
12  Kaupo Gap, Maui – SSW 

15  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
The Pacific storm track remains well north of Hawaii…
which is very typical of an El Nino winter

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
High cirrus clouds south of Hawaii…impressive cold front north

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Mostly clear to partly cloudy…some cloudy areas

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Just a few light showers –
looping radar image

High Surf Warning…north and west shores of Kauai, Oahu
and Molokai / north shore of Maui

High Surf Advisory…west shore of the Big Island

Small Craft Advisory…all coasts and channels,
except some parts around the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Light winds will continue through this week…keeping volcanic haze around locally. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean. We find a high pressure system well to our east-northeast, offshore from Southern California…with a ridge of high pressure extending southwest over the eastern islands. There’s a second weak high pressure cell located just to the west of the state. Meanwhile, there’s a couple of deep low pressure systems far north of the islands…with an associated cold front extending from its center, far southwest into the western Pacific. Our winds will be light, as this high pressure ridge remains mostly over us through the week. Our local winds will be light and variable, with onshore daytime sea breezes, and offshore flowing land breezes at night. There’s a good chance that many days this week will have volcanic haze over us. If the trade winds return later this upcoming weekend, they could finally help to ventilate this voggy reality away temporarily.

A relatively dry and stable atmosphere will remain parked over the state…with just a few showers here and there. The light winds referred to above, in combination with the islands heating up during the days…will prompt late morning through afternoon clouds to form over the islands. These clouds will develop along the slopes of the mountains for the most part, and then evaporate during the cooler hours of the night. These clouds won’t be dropping many showers, although there could be light precipitation in a few places. Looking ahead, the models show a cold front approaching Kauai later this week, although is expected to stall before arriving. The relatively close proximity of this front just to our north, may have the chance of increasing showers…associated with the afternoon clouds that form over the slopes of the mountains Friday and Saturday. If the trade winds return Sunday into early next week, as the models are suggesting, we could see some modest increase in windward showers then.

Here in Maui CountyIt’s mostly clear early Tuesday morning before sunrise…with volcanic haze still in the air. Here in upcountry Kula we have an air temperature of 49.6F degrees at 540am. The temperature was 63 degrees down near sea level in Kahului, with 64 out in Hana, 63 at Maalaea Bay…and 46 atop the Haleakala Crater at the same time. Meanwhile, Kahoolawe’s coolest temperature was 66 degrees, with 64 degrees at Lanai City, and 65 at the Molokai airport. 

230pm, the middle of the afternoon here on Maui, and the volcanic haze is thick! Otherwise, it’s partly cloudy, with light breezes…and mostly if not totally dry.

515pm, early evening, cloudy and foggy here in upcountry Kula, and it was still way voggy down in the central valley…the last time I could see below the clouds. / We just are having a light shower now at 530pm, along with totally calm winds. The air temperature was 67.2 degrees – still lightly showering at 555pm

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2015 North Pacific hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued if conditions warrant. Here’s the 2015 hurricane season summary

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Human impacts on climate caused record warm years – Recent record warm years are with extremely high likelihood caused by human-made climate change. Without greenhouse-gas emissions from burning coal and oil, the odds are small that 13 out of the 15 warmest years ever measured would all have happened in the current, still young century. These odds are between 1 in 5000 and 1 in 170.000, a new study by an international team of scientists now shows. Including the data for 2015, which came in after the study was completed, makes the odds even slimmer.

“2015 is again the warmest year on record, and this can hardly be by chance,” says co-author Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The scientists performed a sophisticated statistical analysis, combining observational data and comprehensive computer simulations of the climate system. Their new approach allowed them to better separate natural climate variability from human-caused climate change.

“Natural climate variability causes temperatures to wax and wane over a period of several years, rather than varying erratically from one year to the next,” says lead-author Michael Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology and director, Earth System Science Center, Penn State (US). “That makes it more challenging to accurately assess the chance likelihood of temperature records. Given the recent press interest, it just seemed like it was important to do this right, and address, in a defensible way, the interesting and worthwhile question of how unlikely it is that the recent run of record temperatures might have arisen by chance alone.”

Global warming increases risk of local heat extremes

The newly computed odds for experiencing the recent runs of record temperatures by chance, without accounting for human-caused greenhouse gases, are greater than odds previously reported in some media – between 1 in 27 million and 1 in 650 million – but they are still incredibly slim.

In contrast, taking human-caused global warming into account makes the recent record temperatures quite likely, as the study further shows. Rahmstorf sums up the findings: “Natural climate variations just can’t explain the observed recent global heat records, but man-made global warming can.” What is more, the anomalous global average warmth comes with substantial impacts. “It has led to unprecedented local heat waves across the world – sadly resulting in loss of life and aggravating droughts and wildfires,” says Rahmstorf. “The risk of heat extremes has been multiplied due to our interference with the Earth system, as our data analysis shows.”