Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the minimums Saturday:

82 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 72  Molokai
88 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
91 – 75  Kailua Kona AP
80 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:

0.31  Kilohana, Kauai
0.47  Pupukea Road, Oahu
0.23  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.03  Haiku, Maui
1.72  Laupahoehoe, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:

23  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
35  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
27  Molokai – NE
35  Lanai – NE
37  Kahoolawe – N
30  Kapalua, Maui – NNE
29  Kohala Ranch, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Tropical Storm 07C (Oho) to our south…with a deep low
pressure system to the north-northeast of the state – and
Tropical Depression 08C southwest of Hawaii

Here’s a wind profile…of the area around the islands –
with a closer view of Hawaii

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP072015W.gif
Tropical Storm Oho moving northwest… then
taking a sharp turn towards the northeast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07C/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif
Close-up view of this Tropical Storm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical Storm Oho to our south – and a stream of clouds
moving northeastward out of the tropics to our northeast…
along with Tropical Depression 08C southwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
A mix of clear to cloudy, with Tropical Storm Oho to our south –
there are lots of clouds banking-up against the windward
sides – especially from Oahu down through the Big Island


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are a few showers…mostly along the windward sides
looping radar image


Small Craft wind Advisory…all coasts and
channels across the state of Hawaii

High Surf Advisory…for the north and east
facing shores for all the islands

Moderate Surges and Large Breaking
Waves…for north facing harbors –
including Kahului and Hilo

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Trade winds will remain active over the islands…quite strong and gusty at times. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure very far to the northeast and northwest of the state. At the same time, we find tropical cyclones to our south and southwest, with additional tropical disturbances stretched out far to the east-southeast towards Mexico. Finally, there’s a gale low pressure system to our northeast…with an associated cold front and trough in our general area. Our winds are arriving from the trade wind direction, and will continue to do so…although as Tropical Storm Oho, and what will become Hurricane Oho moves by to our east and northeast…our local winds may be influenced.

We’ll find showers along our windward sides…extending over into the leeward sides locally.  The forecast continues to show tropical moisture, which is the northern fringe of rain loosely associated with this tropical storm, taking aim on the Aloha State starting now into upcoming new week. The primary focus of this locally heavy rain, will take aim on the eastern islands of Maui County and especially the Big Island. The Big Island may get into an area of thunderstorms as well, which could lead to localized flooding of course. This will be the beginning of what looks like a prolonged period of off and on rain showers for Hawaii. As tropical cyclone Oho gets into the area east and northeast of the islands, the trade winds will pick up and carry showers into the windward sides of the other islands too.

Unsettled weather will arrive tonight…with rains into the new week. The models are pointing out an unusually complex weather situation, that’s about to evolve into the new week. Tropical Storm Oho remains active, and is expected to move generally towards the islands over the next day or two…then shifting  to the east of the island chain as a hurricane during the new week. The main features of this looming weather situation, besides this tropical cyclone, include an upper level trough of low pressure, interacting with a robust surge of tropical moisture being pulled northwards over the eastern side of the state. This event may result in localized flooding rainfall, especially near the Big Island and Maui County into Sunday and beyond. It would be wise to pay close attention to this rather dramatic change in weather, as we move forward. There will continue to be the need for more fine tuning of this situation…as it gradually unfolds.

Here on Maui…It’s 620am Saturday morning with mostly clear skies, along with the usual windward clouds and showers…that stretch over the West Maui Mountains. By the way, the air temperature here at my Kula weather tower is a relatively cool 52.3 degrees…much cooler than the relatively warm 74 degree reading at the Kahului AP at the same time.

– We’re well into the afternoon now, with mostly sunny skies prevailing, with just some fairly minor low clouds along the windward sides. The central valley and the leeward beaches are totally sun filled!

– It’s now very early evening, with still mostly sunny and fine early autumn weather conditions in place. I can see some windward clouds, although they don’t look overly showery at the time of this writing. The leeward beaches probably couldn’t be any nicer…as most of the days have been recently.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Friday Evening Film: As is often the case, there were several good looking films playing, and a couple of new ones were starting up too. The one that my friend Jeff and I picked to see this time is called Pawn Sacrifice, starring Tobey Maguire, Peter Sarsgaard, Lily Rabe, Liv Schreiber, Michael Stuhlbarg, Evelyne Brochu, and Sophie Nelisse…among many others. The synopsis: In a gripping true story set during the height of the Cold War, American chess prodigy Bobby Fischer (Tobey Maguire) finds himself caught between two superpowers when he challenges the Soviet Empire. Also starring Liev Schreiber and Peter Sarsgaard, PAWN SACRIFICE chronicles Fischer’s terrifying struggles with genius and madness, and the rise and fall of a kid from Brooklyn who captured the imagination of the world.

At the end of this film, Jeff immediately said “stunning”, and I couldn’t have agreed more. This film was both exciting and tense, which is saying a lot…when talking about the game of chess. The star, Tobey Maquire, playing the chess genius Bobby Fischer, was a perfect match, at least from what I could see. The actual playing of chess had a fairly minor role, with the bigger part of the film concentrating on the minds of the players. It was interesting, the chess players were mostly crazy guys, which somehow just went with the territory so to speak. Tobey played a person who wasn’t very likeable, in fact, he would fly into these rages at the drop of a hat. Nonetheless, I thoroughly enjoyed this film, it was so good! As for a grade, Jeff and I both threw A’s on the table afterwards…in no uncertain terms. If you’re interested, here’s a trailer for this film – full screen viewing is best.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 11L (Joaquin) remains active, located 150 miles southwest of Bermuda with sustained winds of 110 mph (category 2 hurricane). Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

1.)  Shower activity remains minimal in association with an area of low pressure located about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive due to nearby Hurricane Joaquin, and significant development of this system is not anticipated.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

1.)   A broad low pressure area located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for tropical cyclone formation and any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While some gradual development is possible, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable during the next few days while this system moves slowly northeastward or northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.)   The remnants of Marty, located about 100 miles southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico, are producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of this system before it moves inland over western Mexico later today or tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely over portions of western Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm 07C (Oho) remains active, located 380 miles south of South Point, Hawaii, with sustained winds of 40 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Post-ropical cyclone 08C is now dissipating, located 1160 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, a with sustained winds of 30 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system – Final Advisory

3.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 950 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have become better organized. Environmental conditions support tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it slowly tracks northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…40 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 22W (Mujigae) is now dissipating, located inland 208 NM east-northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam, with sustained winds of 92 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system – Final Warning

Tropical Storm 23W (Choi-wan) remains active, located 838 NM northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam, with sustained winds of 58 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Can Climate Change alter the shape of the Earth? – Climate change is causing more than just warmer oceans and erratic weather. According to scientists, it also has the capacity to alter the shape of the planet.In a five-year study published today in Nature, lead author Michele Koppes, assistant professor in the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia, compared glaciers in Patagonia and in the Antarctic Peninsula. She and her team found that glaciers in warmer Patagonia moved faster and caused more erosion than those in Antarctica, as warmer temperatures and melting ice helped lubricate the bed of the glaciers.

“We found that glaciers erode 100 to 1,000 times faster in Patagonia than they do in Antarctica,” said Koppes. “Antarctica is warming up, and as it moves to temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius, the glaciers are all going to start moving faster. We are already seeing that the ice sheets are starting to move faster and should become more erosive, digging deeper valleys and shedding more sediment into the oceans.”

The repercussions of this erosion add to the already complex effects of climate change in the polar regions. Faster moving glaciers deposit more sediment in downstream basins and on the continental shelves, potentially impacting fisheries, dams and access to clean freshwater in mountain communities. “The polar continental margins in particular are hot spots of biodiversity,” notes Koppes. “If you’re pumping out that much more sediment into the water, you’re changing the aquatic habitat.”

The Canadian Arctic, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world, will feel these effects acutely. With more than four degrees Celsius of warming over the last 50 years, the glaciers are on the brink of a major shift that will see them flowing up to 100 times faster if the climate shifts above zero degrees Celsius.

The findings by Koppes and coauthors also settle a scientific debate about when glaciers have the greatest impact on shaping landscapes and creating relief, suggesting that they do the most erosive work near the end of each cycle of glaciation, rather than at the peak of ice cover. The last major glacial cycles in the Vancouver region ended approximately 12,500 years ago.