Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the minimums Wednesday:

83 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
84 – 73  Molokai
86 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 76  Kailua Kona AP
87 – 71  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Wednesday evening:

0.26  Kilohana, Kauai
4.52  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
3.14  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.05  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.99  Wailuku, Maui
0.41  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Wednesday evening:

18  Port Allen, Kauai – NE
29  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
20  Molokai – NNE
24  Lanai – NE
22  Kahoolawe – NE
17  Kapalua, Maui – NNE
24  Kealakomo, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Tropical Depression 18E (Nora) remains active to the southeast of
Hawaii…with a weak cold front over the eastern islands – along with
a deep gale low pressure system well north…with another cold front

Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters
around the islands – with a closer view

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP182015W.gif
Here’s the latest track map of this tropical depression

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Here’s a close-up look at what’s left of the swirl of
Tropical Depression Nora

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical Depression Nora remains southeast – along with a
fragmented cold front more or less stalled over the islands…
and the next approaching cold front well to our north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear along with cloudy areas…with a weak cold front
over the islands…with localized showers – and TD Nora


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers falling over the islands locally…most
active from Oahu down through the Big Island
looping radar image


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will be slightly cool…from the north to northeast. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a high pressure system well to the west-northwest of the state. At the same time, we find low pressure systems far to our north-northeast, with an associated cold front draping back to the southwest from its center, stalled over the central islands. Our winds will come from the north-northeast to northeast…in the wake of this cold front. These slightly cool breezes will gradually become more northeast to easterly into the weekend.

We’ll find a few showers falling locally, as a weak cold front keeps a few showers over our windward sides. Relatively dry conditions will prevail over the next several days. A second somewhat more abundant area of showers will likely arrive by the weekend into early next week, being drawn up over the state from the southeast. The source of this area of showers, mostly falling over the eastern islands, is the northern part of tropical depression Nora. This air mass will be warmer and more humid, compared to the slightly cool and drier northeasterly conditions over the next few days.

Tropical Depression 18E (Nora)…remains active here in the central Pacific…to the southeast of the islands. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm, with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) graphical track map…along with what the computer models are showing. The latest forecast track shows this depression continuing on a path towards the northwest, and then taking a turn towards the west and southwest. As this shift in direction occurs, southeast and south of the Big Island, it will run out of steam quickly. As a matter of fact it should dissipate offshore from the islands by the early part of the weekend. If this turns out as expected, the Hawaiian Islands probably wouldn’t see any direct influence in terms of clouds, rain and wind. However, this system has generated high surf which is impacting the east shore of the Big Island. There is also the possibility that the northern fringe of Nora will bring showers to the Big Island and Maui this weekend.

Here on Maui…It’s 6am Wednesday morning with clear to partly cloudy skies. It’s mostly clear over the island, with clouds along our windward sides…stretching over the West Maui Mountains. These clouds are now loosely associated with the recently passed cold front, which dropped some showers along the way. There are still quite a few showers falling, even into the Kahului and Wailuku towns. This front now has progressed down over the Big Island, with relatively dry air soon to be coming into the state…in its wake.

– It’s now 535pm, under partly cloudy skies, and very few showers…and those are out along the windward sides.

– Recently my car passed the 200,000 mile point on the odometer! My friend Paul Eisenberg, the owner of Pacific Motor Works here in Kula, sold me this great vehicle…and I’ve been happy with it ever since. I bought this BMW M3 from him, and it’s been a very good car, one that I’ve greatly enjoyed. I’ve stuck with his garage, as he’s done quality work for me each time I’ve had occasion to need some minor automotive support. I’m doing a bit of routine maintenance work with his garage again now, and I keep going back…because his prices are better than going to the BMW dealer down in Kahului.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Depression 19E is now active in the northeast Pacific Ocean, located 1080 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California, with sustained winds of 35 mph. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

1.)   An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Some development of this system is anticipated early next week while it moves slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium 40 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Depression 18E (Nora) remains active in the central Pacific Ocean, located 280 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, with sustained winds of 30 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Tropical Storm 24W (Koppu) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean, located 463 NM east of Manila, Philippines, with sustained winds of 68 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm 25W (Champi) remains active in the northwest Pacific Ocean, located 218 NM east-northeast of Saipan, CNMI, with sustained winds of 58 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  The future of wildfires in a warming world – The history of wildfires over the past 2,000 years in a northern Colorado mountain range indicates that large fires will continue to increase as a result of a warming climate, according to a new study led by a University of Wyoming doctoral student.

“What our research shows is that even modest regional warming trends, like we are currently experiencing, can cause exceptionally large areas in the Rockies to be burned by wildfires,” says John Calder, a Ph.D. candidate in UW’s Program in Ecology and the Department of Geology and Geophysics.

The findings will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a major scientific journal. The paper, “Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains,” is co-written by UW researchers Calder, Dusty Parker, Cody Stopka and Bryan Shuman, along with Gonzalo Jimenez-Moreno of the University of Granada in Spain.

Calder and his colleagues examined charcoal deposits in 12 lakes in and near the Mount Zirkel Wilderness of northern Colorado, finding that wildfires burned large portions of that area during a documented spike in temperatures in North America starting about 1,000 years ago. That period, known as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), lasted about 300 years, when temperatures rose just under 1 degree Fahrenheit.

Temperature increases over the past few decades have been comparable to those of the MWP, resulting in some of the largest wildfires in U.S. history. Since the mid-1980s, beginning with the large fires in Yellowstone National Park in 1988, there has been an increase in the frequency of large wildfires in the American West.

If the warming trend continues as projected, the fires of recent years could be just the start of more extensive and devastating blazes, the researchers say.

The study examined how often large areas burned in the past 2,000 years. It found that the only time when fires burned substantially more area than in the 20th century was during the MWP.

“When we look back in time, we only see evidence of large areas burning one time in the last 2,000 years,” Calder says. “This suggests that large wildfires of the magnitude we have recently seen used to be very infrequent.”

The researchers estimate that 83 percent of the 385-square-mile study area burned at the beginning of the MWP, when the climate warmed 0.9 degrees. That represented an increase of more than 250 percent, compared to the 20th century.

By comparison, the average increase in temperature in the Rocky Mountain region since 2000 has been about 1.25 degrees higher than during the 20th century.

By comparison, the average increase in temperature in the Rocky Mountain region since 2000 has been about 1.25 degrees higher than during the 20th century.

“Corresponding to those higher temperatures, 12 percent of our study area burned in the large Zirkel Complex fire in 2002,” Calder says. “Our data indicate that, in the Medieval Warm Period, fires were either much larger, or large fires similar to the Zirkel Complex fire burned in that same wilderness area once every decade or two when the temperatures warmed by 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit.”

The Medieval fires would be unusual almost anywhere in the Rockies.

“Using Yellowstone fire history as a baseline for comparison, our minimum estimate of 50 percent of (Mount Zirkel) sites burned within a century at the beginning of the MWP exceeds any century-scale estimate of Yellowstone burning for the past 750 years,” the scientists wrote. Over the century that led up to and included the massive 1988 fires, only about 30 percent of Yellowstone burned.

“The large increase in the number of sites burned by fires (during the MWP) highlights the risk that large portions of individual landscapes may burn as climates continue to warm today,” the researchers concluded.