Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

82 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
86 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
79 – 72  Molokai
88 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
90 – 75  Kailua Kona AP
86 – 68  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

0.17  Kilohana, Kauai
0.41  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
2.03  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.04  Lanai
0.03  Kahoolawe
0.58  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.39  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

31  Mana, Kauai – NNE
32  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
24  Molokai – NE
30  Lanai – NE
31  Kahoolawe – NE
27  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE
30  Waikoloa, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Areas of disturbed weather to our southwest, south
and southeast…with a cold front near Kauai

Here’s a wind profile…of the area around the islands –
with a closer view of Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms well offshore to the southwest through
south and southeast – along with that fragmenting
early season frontal cloud band just north

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
A mix of clear to partly…to mostly cloudy skies, cold front
is nearing Kauai – with a tropical disturbance south of
the state – and that stream of tropical moisture being
pulled to the northeast…to the east and northeast
of the Big Island


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers…which will arrive along our windward sides
looping radar image


Small Craft wind Advisory…all coasts and
channels across the state of Hawaii

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Trade winds will remain active over the islands…easing up a little into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems to the north-northeast and northeast of the state. At the same time, we find tropical low pressure systems stretched out southwest through southeast of the state. Finally, there’s a storm far to our northeast…with its associated cold front tapping into a couple of weaker gale low pressure cells to our northeast. This front is fragmenting to some degree to the north of Kauai, as it slowly slides closer. Our winds are arriving from the trade wind direction, and will continue to do so this week into next week.

We’ll find showers along our windward sides…extending over into the leeward sides locally. The windward sides will receive most of the incoming showers, although the leeward sides will receive a few too. We may also end up seeing some increasing showers over the western islands, as an early season cold front brings some of its showers to bear near Kauai and possibly Oahu. There’s a good chance that tropical weather systems will develop to our southwest and south this weekend into early next week, one of which, the one to our south, could move towards the islands. Whether or not this occurs, the models continue to show a possible stream of tropical moisture taking aim on the Aloha State this weekend into next week…stay tuned.

Unsettled weather may arrive this weekend…with possible widespread rains. The models are pointing out a rather complex weather situation, that’s likely to develop this weekend into the first part of next week. Some of the models are showing a tropical system moving up near or over the islands this weekend, into early next week. The main features of this looming weather situation include, an upper level trough of low pressure, and a robust surge of tropical moisture being pulled northwards over the state. This event may result in localized flooding rainfall in some parts of the state, especially near the Big Island and Maui County. It would be wise to pay very close attention to this rather dramatic change in weather…as we move into the weekend and beyond.

Here on Maui…It’s 535am Thursday morning with mostly clear skies, along with the usual windward clouds and showers…that stretch over the West Maui Mountains. By the way, the air temperature here at my Kula weather tower is a cool 51 degrees…the coolest morning we’ve had for quite some time. It feels like autumn has found us, at least up here on the slopes of the Haleakala Crater! Just for contrast, it was a much warmer 75 degrees down at the Kahului airport at the same time. / Now at 9am, it’s a totally beautiful day here on Maui…really nice! The temperature here at my place in Kula has warmed to 69.4 degrees…while the Kahului AP has warmed to 79F degrees.

– It’s now mid-afternoon, as this lovely early autumn day continues to shine! Sunshine galore shall we say, along with those gray low clouds banked-up against the windward slopes, perhaps dropping a few light showers.

– We’ve pushed into the early evening hours now, and it’s partly cloudy in general. It was a nice day, with most of the showers in our area focusing on our windward sides…as usual with the trade winds blowing. It looks as if things will continue to be generally pretty good through most of Friday, although thereafter, we’ll see some definite changes as we get into the weekend. This is a very complex set of weather circumstances, with a very early cold front on our doorstep to the north…and a potential tropical system trying to get going not far to our south. How this will all pan out is still a little sketchy, although I highly suggest we continue to pay attention to this developing weather event. It may be quite an event by Sunday into next Tuesday or so, with the possibility of lots of water falling from the sky across parts of the state.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 11L (Joaquin) remains active, located 40 miles south-southwest of San Salvador, Bahamas with sustained winds of 130 mph (major category 4 hurricane). Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

1.)  A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about 850 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds of gale force. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves generally northward. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for further development by Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the low moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium 40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium 60 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 600 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii and are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions support tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it slowly begins to move north.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high…70 percent

2.)  Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…60 percent

3.)  Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions support some gradual organization over the next couple of days as it remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 0 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Storm 22W (Mujigae) remains active, located 238 miles northwest of Manila, with sustained winds of 52 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  Can Climate Change alter the shape of the Earth? – Climate change is causing more than just warmer oceans and erratic weather. According to scientists, it also has the capacity to alter the shape of the planet.In a five-year study published today in Nature, lead author Michele Koppes, assistant professor in the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia, compared glaciers in Patagonia and in the Antarctic Peninsula. She and her team found that glaciers in warmer Patagonia moved faster and caused more erosion than those in Antarctica, as warmer temperatures and melting ice helped lubricate the bed of the glaciers.

“We found that glaciers erode 100 to 1,000 times faster in Patagonia than they do in Antarctica,” said Koppes. “Antarctica is warming up, and as it moves to temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius, the glaciers are all going to start moving faster. We are already seeing that the ice sheets are starting to move faster and should become more erosive, digging deeper valleys and shedding more sediment into the oceans.”

The repercussions of this erosion add to the already complex effects of climate change in the polar regions. Faster moving glaciers deposit more sediment in downstream basins and on the continental shelves, potentially impacting fisheries, dams and access to clean freshwater in mountain communities. “The polar continental margins in particular are hot spots of biodiversity,” notes Koppes. “If you’re pumping out that much more sediment into the water, you’re changing the aquatic habitat.”

The Canadian Arctic, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world, will feel these effects acutely. With more than four degrees Celsius of warming over the last 50 years, the glaciers are on the brink of a major shift that will see them flowing up to 100 times faster if the climate shifts above zero degrees Celsius.

The findings by Koppes and coauthors also settle a scientific debate about when glaciers have the greatest impact on shaping landscapes and creating relief, suggesting that they do the most erosive work near the end of each cycle of glaciation, rather than at the peak of ice cover. The last major glacial cycles in the Vancouver region ended approximately 12,500 years ago.