Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

82 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu
82 – 67  Molokai
87 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 74  Kailua Kona AP
84 – 69  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday evening:

0.80  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.04  Tunnel RG, Oahu
0.84  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.36  Pukalani, Maui
0.49  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

21  Puu Lua, Kauai – ENE
35  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
21  Molokai – NE
24  Lanai – NE
29  Kahoolawe – NNE
17  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE 
25  Waikoloa, Big Island – ENE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Tropical Storm 07C (Oho) to our south…with a deep low
pressure system to the north-northeast of the state – and
Tropical Depression 08C southwest of Hawaii

Here’s a wind profile…of the area around the islands –
with a closer view of Hawaii

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP072015W.gif
Tropical Storm 07C (Oho)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07C/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif
Close-up view of this Tropical Storm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Tropical Storm Oho to our south – and a stream of
clouds moving northeastward out of the tropics to
our east and northeast…along with newly formed
Tropical Depression 08C well to our southwest

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
A mix of clear to partly…with Tropical Storm – before becoming a hurricane by Monday


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are some showers…mostly along the windward sides
looping radar image


Small Craft wind Advisory…all coasts and
channels across the state of Hawaii

High Surf Advisory…for the north and east
facing shores for all the islands

Moderate Surges and Large Breaking
Waves…for north facing harbors –
including Kahului and Hilo

Tropical Storm Warning…for offshore
waters beyond 40 miles

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Trade winds will remain active over the islands…quite strong and gusty through the weekend into next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure far to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time, we find tropical low pressure systems stretched out southwest through southeast of the state. Finally, there’s a couple of gale low pressure systems to our northeast…with and associated cold front and trough in our area. Our winds are arriving from the trade wind direction, and will continue to do so this weekend into the new week.

We’ll find showers along our windward sides…extending over into the leeward sides locally. The windward sides will receive most of the incoming showers, although the leeward sides will receive a few too. There’s a good chance that a tropical cyclone will develop to our south soon, which looks like it may meander around for a time, before potentially taking a patch not far to the east of the Big Island early next week. However, whether or not this occurs, the models continue to show a possible stream of tropical moisture taking aim on the Aloha State this weekend into next week. The primary focus of this locally heavy rain, would probably take aim on the eastern islands of Maui County and the Big Island…stay tuned.

Unsettled weather may arrive later this weekend…with possible rains into the new week. The models are pointing out an unusually complex weather situation, that’s likely to develop this weekend into the new week. Tropical Storm 07C (Oho) is now active, and is expected to move generally towards the islands…then splitting off towards the east of the island chain as a hurricane during the first half of the new week. The main features of this looming weather situation, besides this tropical cyclone, include an upper level trough of low pressure, interacting with a robust surge of tropical moisture being pulled northwards over the eastern side of the state. This event may result in localized flooding rainfall, especially near the Big Island and Maui County Saturday night into Sunday. It would be wise to pay close attention to this rather dramatic change in weather…as we move into the weekend and beyond. There continues to be the need for more fine tuning of this situation, as it gradually unfolds.

Here on Maui…It’s 535am Friday morning with mostly clear skies, along with the usual windward clouds and showers…that stretch over the West Maui Mountains. By the way, the air temperature here at my Kula weather tower is a relatively cool 53 degrees…not as cool as the 51 degree reading I had yesterday morning. / Now 650am, clouds have pushed over from the windward side of east Maui, and are bringing light misty drizzle to my area of Kula…along with a nice rainbow too!

– Mid-afternoon, windier than usual here in Kula, which often indicates more of a northern orientation of the trade winds. There are still lots of clouds over on the windward side of east Maui, with showers falling…as the radar image shows. There’s still a good amount of warm afternoon sunshine beaming down along our leeward beaches, like Wailea, Kihei, and Lahaina.

– Despite the clouds around along the windward sides, most of Maui had a nice Friday. There was lots of warm sunshine for sun bathing along our beaches…and our coastal waters remain really nice and warm for swimming and other activities.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Friday Evening Film: As is often the case, there were several good looking films playing, and a couple of new ones were starting up too. The one that my friend Jeff and I picked to see this time is called Pawn Sacrifice, starring Tobey Maguire, Peter Sarsgaard, Lily Rabe, Liv Schreiber, Michael Stuhlbarg, Evelyne Brochu, and Sophie Nelisse…among many others. The synopsis: In a gripping true story set during the height of the Cold War, American chess prodigy Bobby Fischer (Tobey Maguire) finds himself caught between two superpowers when he challenges the Soviet Empire. Also starring Liev Schreiber and Peter Sarsgaard, PAWN SACRIFICE chronicles Fischer’s terrifying struggles with genius and madness, and the rise and fall of a kid from Brooklyn who captured the imagination of the world.

At the end of this film, Jeff immediately said “stunning”, and I couldn’t have agreed more. This film was both exciting and tense, which is saying a lot…when talking about the game of chess. The star, Tobey Maquire, playing the chess genius Bobby Fischer, was a perfect match, at least from what I could see. The actual playing of chess had a fairly minor role, with the bigger part of the film concentrating on the minds of the players. It was interesting, the chess players were mostly crazy guys, which somehow just went with the territory so to speak. Tobey played a person who wasn’t very likeable, in fact, he would fly into these rages at the drop of a hat. Nonetheless, I thoroughly enjoyed this film, it was so good! As for a grade, Jeff and I both threw A’s on the table afterwards…in no uncertain terms. If you’re interested, here’s a trailer for this film.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 11L (Joaquin) remains active, located 625 miles southwest of Bermuda with sustained winds of 130 mph (major category 4 hurricane). Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

1.)   A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished substantially since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for the low to acquire more tropical characteristics for only about another day. After that time, strong upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Joaquin should prevent development of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

1.)   A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive, and gradual development is possible while the system moves slowly northeastward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

2.)  A well-organized area of low pressure – the remnants of Marty – are located about 350 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is producing some showers and thunderstorms, but strong upper-level winds are anticipated to prevent further significant development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwestern Mexico through early next week, while the low moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: 

Tropical Storm 07C (Oho) remains active, located 340 miles south-southeast of South Point, Big Island, a with sustained winds of 40 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Depression 08C is now active, located 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, a with sustained winds of 35 mph. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

3.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions support some gradual organization over the next couple of days as it slowly begins to drift northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 22W (Mujigae) remains active, located 175 NM south-southwest of Hong Kong, with sustained winds of 75 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm 23W (Choi-wan) remains active, located 187 NM west of Wake Island, with sustained winds of 46 mph. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Can Climate Change alter the shape of the Earth? – Climate change is causing more than just warmer oceans and erratic weather. According to scientists, it also has the capacity to alter the shape of the planet.In a five-year study published today in Nature, lead author Michele Koppes, assistant professor in the Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia, compared glaciers in Patagonia and in the Antarctic Peninsula. She and her team found that glaciers in warmer Patagonia moved faster and caused more erosion than those in Antarctica, as warmer temperatures and melting ice helped lubricate the bed of the glaciers.

“We found that glaciers erode 100 to 1,000 times faster in Patagonia than they do in Antarctica,” said Koppes. “Antarctica is warming up, and as it moves to temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius, the glaciers are all going to start moving faster. We are already seeing that the ice sheets are starting to move faster and should become more erosive, digging deeper valleys and shedding more sediment into the oceans.”

The repercussions of this erosion add to the already complex effects of climate change in the polar regions. Faster moving glaciers deposit more sediment in downstream basins and on the continental shelves, potentially impacting fisheries, dams and access to clean freshwater in mountain communities. “The polar continental margins in particular are hot spots of biodiversity,” notes Koppes. “If you’re pumping out that much more sediment into the water, you’re changing the aquatic habitat.”

The Canadian Arctic, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world, will feel these effects acutely. With more than four degrees Celsius of warming over the last 50 years, the glaciers are on the brink of a major shift that will see them flowing up to 100 times faster if the climate shifts above zero degrees Celsius.

The findings by Koppes and coauthors also settle a scientific debate about when glaciers have the greatest impact on shaping landscapes and creating relief, suggesting that they do the most erosive work near the end of each cycle of glaciation, rather than at the peak of ice cover. The last major glacial cycles in the Vancouver region ended approximately 12,500 years ago.