Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the minimums Sunday:

85 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
88 – 69  Molokai
91 – 70  Kahului AP, Maui – the record for Sunday was 93…set back in 1953
90 – 78  Kailua Kona
91 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii – broke the record Sunday of 87…set back in 1958

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Sunday evening:

2.26  Puu Opae, Kauai
0.48  Waihee Pump, Oahu
0.00  Kamalo, Molokai
0.31  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.96  Kula Branch Station, Maui
3.41  Kapalua Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:

17  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai – SE
18  Waianae Harbor, Oahu – SE
15  Molokai – SE
09  Lanai – N
18  Kahoolawe – SE
16  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NW
20  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Tropical Storm Jimena to the northeast of the islands…
with Hurricane Linda near Mexico

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP132015W.gif

Here’s a wind profile…so we can keep an eye on Jemina

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Tropical Storm Jimena is getting sheared by upper level winds

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms offshore to the north and south…
along with Jimena northeast


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around…moderately heavy over the
ocean…moving over the islands locally
  looping radar image

 

High Surf Warning…east shores of all the islands – until
6pm this evening

High Surf Advisory…all south shores through 6pm
this evening

Small Craft Advisory…all Hawaiian Islands except
Maalaea Bay, Maui

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Light breezes will continue to fan the islands…although won’t bring much relief from the tropical heat. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system far to the northeast of the state. At the same time we see tropical storm Jimena offshore to the northeast of the state. As we move into the new week, we’ll see the winds remaining light, as Jimena’s presence over the ocean to the northeast interrupts our more typical trade wind flow. This in turn will keep very muggy conditions for most of the rest of the week. It may take until next Monday…before we break back into a classic trade wind weather pattern.

The greatest threat of afternoon downpours…will continue over the interior sections again Monday. As the winds remain quite light, there will continue to be a few heavy downpours over the interior sections of the islands…triggered by daytime heating of the islands. The atmosphere will gradually become a bit less shower prone going forward. As tropical storm Jimena moves by to our northeast and then north, our weather will remain unsettled at times. This will keep us in a convective weather pattern…with locally heavy afternoon showers in the upcountry areas. We may see an increase in showers later in the week, as the moisture associated with Jimena moves over the state…bringing potentially very wet conditions back our way into next weekend.

Tropical Storm 13E (Jimena) remains active well to our east-northeast,although continues to pose no threat to our islands at this time. This tropical storm is maintaining sustained winds of near 50 mph as of the latest advisory. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. There continues to be a good chance that Jemina will stay away from our area, well to the northeast and north of the state. Looking at the latest track map, it looks like this system will take a turn west-southwestward, and track by offshore to the north and northwest of Kauai as a much weaker tropical depression later in the new week. It would be wise however, to keep an eye on this system…just in case it decides to drop down closer to the state.

A large swell from tropical storm Jimena will continue to produce warning level surf along east facing shores. As Jimena weakens and moves farther northwest, the swell direction will back more northerly and gradually diminish through mid week. Based on wave watch guidance, the high surf warning will likely be switched to an advisory after Monday. A swell from the southern hemisphere will keep surf above the advisory level along south facing shores through Monday evening.

Here on Maui…It’s 615am Sunday morning, and totally clear…another beautiful start to the day on this holiday weekend! / We’ve reached the mid-morning now, with still a nice day maintaining its control. I was just looking at today’s crop of cumulus clouds, hmmm, I’ve never thought of clouds as a something growing in the sky before…I kinda like that. At any rate, as I was scanning the horizon just now, I saw several of these cumulus that were trying to become more vertically developed. They haven’t reached the towering cumulus variety, although it looks like several of them may be working in that direction. This of course speaks to me of a somewhat unstable atmosphere, which in turn suggests that it’s more shower prone than yesterday perhaps…at least here on Maui.

– We’re into the early afternoon now, and the weather, at least here in Kula, has made a definite change. The totally clear skies of early this morning, has given way to cloudy skies…and even foggy now. It’s got that look and feel of impending rain, and it may not be long in the waiting.  And now a few minutes later, it has begun to shower, and we have a thunderstorm going off somewhere nearby too. / Now at 250pm, it’s been raining for the last hour or a bit more, generally in the light to moderately heavy range. / It’s still raining now at 430pm, and I can see out just enough…that I spot several towering cumulus clouds in the distance.

– We’re into the early evening now, and the eaves continue to drip water, although the showers have finally stopped. It rained on and off all afternoon, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of additional showers before everything is said and done. I would expect to see yet another totally clear morning on the holiday Monday, like we’ve see the last several days. Although it seems to be clearing up rather quickly now, and may be near clear as we slip into the night.

I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Sunday wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Friday Evening Film: There are lots of films, although few that really were pulling me. My friend Jeff and I couldn’t decide on which to see, so we just took a flying leap into one called American Ultra, starring Jesse Eisenberg, Kristen Stewart, Topher Grace, Connie Britton, and Monique Ganderton…among many others. The synopsis, American Ultra is a fast-paced action comedy about Mike (Eisenberg), a seemingly hapless and unmotivated stoner whose small-town life with his live-in girlfriend, Phoebe (Stewart), is suddenly turned upside down. Unbeknownst to him, Mike is actually a highly trained, lethal sleeper agent. In the blink of an eye, as his secret past comes back to haunt him, Mike is thrust into the middle of a deadly government operation and is forced to summon his inner action-hero in order to survive.

Hmmm, is what both Jeff and I were saying, although we were willing to give it a shot. Well once again, we were surprised, and more than that delighted. One of the things that Jeff said was “This was a film that took after the old Pulp Fiction film.” American Ultra was another of those bloody works, although with enough of a comic slant…that it took the edge off all the violence. It was a fast paced, action comedy…and the word bizarre seems to be fitting descriptor throughout. In the end, I’m very happy to have taken a chance on this one, although I was nervous that Jeff wasn’t going to like it, as it was on my recommendation that we saw it. One of the first things he said after leaving the theater, was A-. That was encouraging, as that was just the grade that I was thinking of giving it too. Fortunately the trailer isn’t too much like the film itself…at least in the gritty level of violence.

Saturday Evening Film: Jeff invited me and couple of other folks over to his place to see a film. This one stars the same actor as last nights film, and is called The Double, starring Jesse Eisenberg, Mia Wasikowska, Noah Taylor, Wallace Shawn, James Fox, and Yasmin Paige…among many others. The synopsis: Eisenberg plays Simon, a timid, isolated man who’s overlooked at work, scorned by his mother, and ignored by the woman of his dreams (Wasikowska). The arrival of a new co-worker, James (also played by Eisenberg), serves to upset the balance. James is both Simon’s exact physical double and his opposite – confident, charismatic and good with women. To Simon’s horror, James slowly starts taking over his life.

This film was so unusual…we’d never seen anything like it before. I must say, it was very interesting, and was rather spell bounding throughout. It would help incredibly if one liked the main actor, and as it turned out…I do. This film was ultra theatrical, and had a self conscious quality to it, which was entertaining stuff. It was a bleak and dark comedy, which highlighted urban alienation. The film was rather brilliant, despite its queasy paranoia, which pulled one into the film even deeper. Its clever moments outweighed its contrived ones, twisting into an atmospheric package…that were both subtle and haunting. None of the viewers sitting around the room had any grade for this film, at least no one said anything afterwards. If I was forced to give a grade, I’d have to turn over a strong B+, if for no other reason than its uniqueness. In sum, quirky would be an understatement in describing this film! If you have any interest…here’s the trailer.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 07L (Grace) remains now active over the Atlantic Ocean, with sustained winds of 45 mph…and is located about 810 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 15E (Linda) remains active as a category 2 system in the northeast Pacific, with sustained winds of 100 mph…and is located about 395 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing.

1.) An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm 13E (Jimena) remains active in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 50 mph…and is located about 585 miles northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 03C (Kilo) remains active now in the western Pacific, with sustained winds of 86 mph, and is located about 494 NM east of Minami Tori Shima, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 18W (Etau) remains active in the western Pacific, with sustained winds of 46 mph, and is located about 666 NM south-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: The Fingerprints of Sea Level Rise – When you fill a sink, the water rises at the same rate to the same height in every corner. That’s not the way it works with our rising seas.

According to the 23-year record of satellite data from NASA and its partners, the sea level is rising a few millimeters a year — a fraction of an inch. If you live on the U.S. East Coast, though, your sea level is rising two or three times faster than average. If you live in Scandinavia, it’s falling. Residents of China’s Yellow River delta are swamped by sea level rise of more than nine inches a year.

These regional differences in sea level change will become even more apparent in the future, as ice sheets melt. For instance, when the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is totally gone, the average global sea level will rise four feet. But the East Coast of the United States will see an additional 14 to 15 inches above that average.

Tides, winds and ocean currents play a role in these regional differences, but an increasingly important mover and shaker is the solid Earth itself. Global warming is not just affecting the surface of our world; it’s making the Earth move under our feet.

Unless a volcano or earthquake is in the news, we tend to think of our home planet as solid rock. But 50 miles below our feet, there’s a layer thousands of miles thick that can flow like a liquid over thousands of years. The tectonic plates of Earth’s crust float on this viscous layer, called the mantle, like a vanilla wafer on a very thick pudding.

If you were to put a strawberry on top of that vanilla wafer, the added weight would make the cookie sink into the pudding. In the same way, heavy weights on Earth’s crust push it down into the mantle, which flows away and bulges out elsewhere. The miles-thick ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have been depressing the crust beneath them for millennia. That weight has a second effect that you won’t see in your dessert: its gravitational pull on the surrounding ocean makes seawater pile up around the coastlines.

These weight-filled dents in the mantle don’t make a permanent scar. When the extra weight lifts, the mantle rebounds. This doesn’t just happen at the majestic pace of mountain ranges crumbling. It happens every day.

“The solid earth can respond very quickly — nearly instantaneously,” said Mark Tamisiea, a scientist at the National Oceanography Center, Liverpool, England, who studies the connection between sea levels and Earth processes. Tamisiea cited the example of solid-Earth tides, which pull the crust outward as much as a foot (30 centimeters) toward the moon as it passes overhead. Similarly, Earth has an instant initial response to glaciers and ice sheets melting, called the elastic response.

Since NASA launched the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites in 2002, scientists have had an extremely precise measurement of the contribution that ice sheets’ loss of mass contributes to changes in gravity and what it is adding to sea level rise. “Because of GRACE, we’ve had a pretty good idea of what’s happening since 2002,” said Steve Nerem of the University of Colorado, head of NASA’s Sea Level Change Team. “We know how much [of sea level rise] is from Greenland, how much is from Antarctica, how much is from glaciers.”

Because every ice sheet and glacier has a unique location and size, each one creates a pattern of response in the ocean as individual as a fingerprint. “The physics behind understanding these fingerprints is very well understood,” Tamisiea said. “It’s like the tides.” He and Jerry Mitrovica of Harvard University have calculated the fingerprints of East and West Antarctica and Greenland around the globe. “We do each ice sheet individually so we can use the latest GRACE analysis,” Tamisiea explained. “You can sort of add the effects up and see what the result is for any given location.”

As any ice sheet melts, sea levels along coastlines as much as 1,500 miles away will fall as seawater escapes from the reduced gravitational pull and the crust lifts. The escaping seawater flows clear across the equator: the melting of Antarctica affects the U.S. East and West coasts, and Greenland’s disappearance impacts the coastline of Brazil. These regional differences are significant — such as in the case of the East Coast of the United States.

The East Coast is also on the losing end of another important solid-Earth process that affects regional sea levels: post-glacial rebound. After the elastic response to a crustal weight loss, uplift continues more slowly for many millennia. North America is still responding to the massive melt-off at the end of the last ice age 6,000 years ago. The North American tectonic plate wasn’t evenly loaded during that ice age: ice sheets were sitting on what is now Canada and Greenland, while most of today’s United States remained ice free. This ice load pushed the mantle out from under Canada and buoyed up the United States. Today, the U.S. side of the North American plate is sinking like the downhill end of a seesaw as the northern side continues to lift.

Greenland’s uplift from postglacial rebound means the island is gaining mass from below and its bedrock is continuously rising. At the same time, it is losing mass from above as its ice melts. GRACE measures the net result of these opposing processes, not just the result of melting ice alone. A National Science Foundation- and NASA-funded program called the Greenland GPS Network is working to overcome this problem. Led by Michael Bevis of Ohio State University, Columbus, the program is using more than 50 GPS stations in Greenland to measure Greenland’s rise and fall. The network is dense enough, and the instruments record elevation precisely enough, to distinguish the steady, long-term rise caused by postglacial rebound from shorter-term changes in elevation caused by the weight of the winter snows and loss of weight in summer. The goal of the project is to provide a “correction factor” for postglacial rebound that can be applied to measurements by GRACE and succeeding missions so the remainder is an accurate measurement of the loss of mass from melting.

Scientists currently believe ice sheet fingerprints will be the major driver of future regional variations in sea levels. They are working on questions of how these solid-Earth processes interact with other global and local drivers of sea level rise. “We have to understand global and larger-scale regional changes to do localized impact studies,” Tamisiea explained. “In some places, it may very well be that regional processes will be the most important signal. There has to be a continuum of understanding of the global average, regional changes and more localized processes. We’ll need all of those layers to make viable predictions.”