Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:

86 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
92 – 73  Honolulu, Oahu – the all time record Tuesday was 93…set back in 1995
87 – 76  Molokai
91 – 76  Kahului, Maui –  the all time record Tuesday was 93…set back in 1952
88 – 76  Kailua Kona
84 – 70   Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:

1.53  Kilohana, Kauai
0.11  Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.24  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.45  Kula 1, Maui
1.85 South Point, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:

18  Poipu, Kauai – ENE
27  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
23  Molokai – NE
28  Lanai – NE
28  Kahoolawe – ESE
30  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNW
30  Kamuela AP, Big Island – NW

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Tropical Storm Guillermo will pass by to the north of Hawaii…
moving west-northwest at near 9 mph – pretty interesting that
his higher level clouds extend all the way to California!

Real time wind profile of TS Guillermo and the Islands

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP092015W.gif

Tropical Storm Guillermo’s track remains just offshore to our north

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/probwinds/EP092015_PROB34_F120.gif
Tropical Storm Force Winds extend outward up to 185 miles
from the center…the chance for TS Force Winds is 10% at Hilo,
and 16% at Kahului, Maui

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
TS Guillermo to the east – with its upper level clouds
being sheared to the east by winds from the west
Looping version


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Partly cloudy – increasing clouds associated with approaching
TS Guillermo to our east – Looping version


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers in our vicinity…increasing first on the Big Island
and then Maui – looping radar image


High Surf Warning…east shore of the Big Island, Maui,
Molokai, Oahu and Kauai – through 6am Thursday

Flash Flood Watch…for all islands – through Thursday

Tropical Storm Warning…Hawaii’s offshore waters
beyond 40 miles

Tropical Storm Watch…coasts and channels around
Maui County and the Big Island – which means that
sustained winds of 39 mph or higher are possible
within the next 24-36 hours

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will continue for the time being…and then be interrupted by the circulation of tropical cyclone Guillermo tonight through Friday morning. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong, near 1031 millibar high pressure system well to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we have tropical storm Guillermo east of our islands.  As Guillermo moves closer to the state, our winds will become locally gusty over the eastern islands especially. Thereafter, the trade winds will fill back in over the state, in the wake of Guillermo’s passage beginning Friday into the weekend…and beyond.

Generally fair weather over Oahu and Kauai…although there will be showery clouds increasing this evening into the night…at least locally. The Big Island and Maui will have the best chance for showers tonight into Thursday, although the other islands will get some with time too. The Big Island will begin receiving showers directly associated with tropical storm Guillermo tonight, with increasing showers arriving over Maui County soon thereafter. The Big Island and Maui County will be the most rain prone as Guillermo glides past over the ocean to our north…while Oahu and Kauai will get most of their showers Thursday.

It’s interesting to note that we may see the approach of yet another tropical system by around next Tuesday or so.  This area is currently being referred to as Invest 92E, here’s a satellite image, with the looping version, and what the computer models are showing….stay tuned.

Tropical Storm 09E (Guillermo) remains active here in the central Pacific. Here’s a satellite image of this storm, along with the looping version…and finally what the computer models are showing. This tropical storm will move by offshore just to the north of the islands Wednesday through Thursday. If the forecast track remains similar to what it is now, Guillermo will bring inclement weather our way through Thursday. If this occurs as presently forecast, we could find locally gusty 30-40+ mph winds across some parts of the eastern islands, along with passing showers…some locally heavy with localized flooding.

From the NWS office in Honolulu:

THE CPHC FORECAST ESTIMATES THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT…AND 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAUI THURSDAY.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE IN MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA

LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE…GARBAGE CANS…AND OTHER ITEMS SHOULD BE SECURED OR STORED INDOORS IF YOU LIVE IN THE TS WATCH AREA

RAINFALL…TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 7 INCHES MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN…ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SURF…SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 555am Tuesday morning, skies are mostly clear. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 59.4 degrees, while it was 76 down at the Kahului airport, and 73 out in Hana…with a cooler 45 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time. / It’s now 11am, and the mostly clear skies from earlier today, have given way to an increase in clouds…although still partly cloudy for the most part.

– It’s now 245pm, under partly cloudy skies, and we’ve just had our first shower of the day. It began rather suddenly, with these big quarter size drops falling. It didn’t last long enough to wet the whole deck, although there were hundreds of big water spots…pretty cool! It gave the most incredible whiff of rain too, it smelled so refreshing and special.

– We’re into the early evening hours now, with the sunny day now giving way to increased cloudiness. I see that the beaches seem still mostly sunny, although clouds are definitely wrapping around the mountains now.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have not changed appreciably in organization since yesterday. Nevertheless, environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, and this low is still likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Here’s a satellite image of this area in the eastern Pacific – along with the NHC 5-day outlook

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm 09E (Guillermo) remains active, with sustained winds of 60 mph, and is located about 260 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii. TS Guillermo will weaken in strength going forward. Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

1.) A weak low pressure area, the remnant of tropical depression Eight-E, was located about 1300 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. This feature moved west-southwest at 20 miles an hour. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for redevelopment of this system over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

~~~ Here’s a link to a satellite image …showing these two areas above ^^^

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 13W (Soudelor) remains active, located about 474 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting:  Ice cores show volcanic eruptions and cold climate strongly linked – Researchers find new evidence that large eruptions were responsible for cold temperature extremes recorded since early Roman times

It is well known that large volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability. However, quantifying these contributions has proven challenging due to inconsistencies in both historic atmospheric data observed in polar ice cores and corresponding temperature variations seen in climate indicators such as tree rings.

Published today in the journal Nature, a new study by a team of international scientists, including those from British Antarctic Survey, resolves these inconsistencies with a new reconstruction of the timing and changes in temperature of the atmosphere of nearly 300 individual volcanic eruptions exte.

“Using new records we are able to show that large volcanic eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were the dominant drivers of climate variability, responsible for numerous and widespread summer cooling extremes over the past 2,500 years,” explains Dr Michael Sigl, the paper’s lead author, assistant research professor at DRI and postdoctoral fellow with the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland.

“These cooler temperatures were caused by large amounts of volcanic sulfate particles injected into the upper atmosphere,” Sigl added, “shielding the Earth”s surface from incoming solar radiation.”

The study shows that 15 of the 16 coldest summers recorded between 500 BC and 1,000 AD followed large volcanic eruptions — with four of the coldest occurring shortly after the largest volcanic events found in record.

Preparation of ice core samples for 10Be analysis using dedicated chemistry robot at Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley.

This new reconstruction is derived from more than 20 individual ice cores extracted from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica and analyzed for volcanic sulfate primarily using DRI’s state-of-the-art, ultra-trace chemical ice-core analytical system.

These ice-core records provide a year-by-year history of atmospheric sulfate levels through time. Additional measurements including other chemical parameters were made at collaborating institutions.

UK author Dr Robert Mulvaney from British Antarctic Survey says:

“We’ve long known that large volcanic eruptions can cool the climate, often for a few years after the event. Evidence for large eruptions is clearly seen in the chemistry recorded in ice cores, and the disruption to climate is recorded both historically and in tree rings, but up until now we have sometimes had difficulty lining up the relative timing of the events.

“What makes this new study special is the accuracy of the dating techniques brought to bear on the ice core record — we now have much more certainty in attributing recorded climate responses to specific volcanic activity recorded in the ice.”