Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / August 3-4, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

87 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu – tied the all time record Monday…set back in 1984
85 – 76  Molokai
89 – 75  Kahului, Maui 
92 – 78  Kailua Kona
84 – 73  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Monday evening:

0.44  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.07  Punaluu Pump, Oahu
0.46  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.34  Kahakuloa, Maui
4.86  Laupahoehoe, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

23  Poipu, Kauai – NE
33  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
28  Molokai – NE
28  Lanai – NE
30  Kahoolawe – N
24  Maalaea Bay, Maui – N 
33  Puuanahulu, Big Island – N

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Tropical Storm Guillermo strengthens slightly east of Hawaii…
moving northwest at near 12 mph

Real time wind profile of TS Guillermo and the Islands

Tropical Storm Guillermo’s track passes offshore to our north

 

 

TS Guillermo is to the east – with its upper levels being sheared
by winds from the southwest
Looping version

Clear to partly cloudy over the islands – along with the
approaching TS Guillermo east – Looping version

A few showers in our vicinity…some of which are falling
over the islands – looping radar image

High Surf Advisory…east shore of the Big Island –
through this evening

Hydrologic Outlook…heavy rain and flash flooding
possible Wednesday and Thursday – statewide

Tropical Storm Warning…Hawaii’s offshore waters
beyond 40 miles

Tropical Storm Watch…coasts and channels around
Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The trade winds will be lighter than they have been lately…and then become interrupted by the circulation of tropical cyclone Guillermo Tuesday night through Thursday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong, near 1028 millibar high pressure system well to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time, we have troughs/low pressure systems to the southwest, east, and east-southeast of our islands. We’ll see trade winds blowing into Tuesday, as a weak low pressure system moves by to the north and southwest of the state. As weakening Guillermo moves closer to the state, our winds will likely become locally gusty as this storm takes a path relatively close to the state early Wednesday through Thursday. If Guillermo were to move further offshore, our winds would become lighter than now expected. Thereafter, the trade winds will fill back in over the state, in the wake of Guillermo’s passage beginning Friday into the weekend…and beyond.

Despite the clouds that will be around through Tuesday…conditions aren’t expected to become overly wet for a while longer. There continues to be an area of clouds hung-up over the Big Island and Maui Counties. All these clouds will bring an occasional shower over some parts of the island chain, although nothing unusual for the time being.  The Big Island and Maui will have the best chance for showers tonight into Tuesday. The Big Island has had the most generous rainfall during the last 24 hours as well, with several of the reporting locations topping 3.00″…with just short of 5.00″ at Laupahoehoe. The Big Island will begin picking up showers associated with tropical storm Guillermo as early as Tuesday night, with locally heavy rains possible across other parts of the state through Thursday. These clouds are liable to bring localized flooding, with even a flash of lightning and a bolt thunder at times. Wednesday will be the rainiest day for the Big Island and Maui County, with Oahu and Kauai on the receiving end Thursday. It should be pointed out that if Guillermo were to move further offshore…rainfall amounts would be lower.

Tropical Storm 09E (Guillermo) remains active here in the central Pacific…which has become a little stronger now. Here’s a satellite image of this storm, along with the looping version…and finally what the computer models are showing. It looks as if this tropical cyclone will move by offshore to the north of the islands early Wednesday through Thursday. If the forecast track remains similar to what it is now, a reduced tropical storm Guillermo will bring tropical weather our way through the mid-week period. If this occurs as presently forecast, we could find locally gusty 30-40 mph winds across some parts of the state, along with lots of passing showers…some locally heavy.

From the NWS office in Honolulu:

HAZARDS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS –

THE CPHC FORECAST ESTIMATES THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 140 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY…AND 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAUI WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE IN MAUI COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL…TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 7 INCHES MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN…ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO IN THE WATCH AREA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS TRAVELING AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 540am Monday morning, skies are partly cloudy, with low clouds along our windward sides. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 59.6 degrees, while it was 76 down at the Kahului airport, and 73 out in Hana…with a cooler 48 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time.

– We’re into the mid-afternoon time period, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, although it’s a nice pleasant day by all standards. The trade winds are lighter now, generally in the 10-25 mph range, with warm to very warm conditions down near the beaches. Here in upcountry Kula, it’s very nice too, with a breeze and air temperatures running around 80. Meanwhile, at about the same time, it was 89 down in Kahului, 81 out in Hana, and 54 degrees up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater.

– It’s early evening now, with mostly cloudy skies covering Maui, although rainfall is scattered and on the light side. The winds are down, which is giving a sultry feeling, although the cloud cover has keep our high temperatures a little cooler today. I expect fairly similar conditions on Tuesday, before TS Guillermo gives us an unusual taste of inclement weather conditions Wednesday into Thursday. I’m not sure whether to call it a rare event, or just very unusual, although either way, this is a close call…something we don’t want any closer or stronger!

~~~ Here’s a weather product that I produced for the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) this morning…covering the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

~~~ Here’s a second weather product that I produced for the PDC this morning,  covering the Pacific Ocean

>>> Here’s a crazy youtube video you might be interested in seeing…especially if you’re a surfer or a motor biker (by the way I don’t approve of racing through the pristine jungle, or bringing an oily motor bike into the ocean!)

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.) Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are at best marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. After tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of South and North Carolina today and tonight.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon…..along with the NHC 5-day outlook graphic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Cloudiness and showers associated with a low pressure system located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are limited, and the overall organization has changed little since yesterday. Nevertheless, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this low is likely to become a tropical depression later this week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Here’s a satellite image of this area in the eastern Pacific – along with the NHC 5-day outlook

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm 09E (Guillermo) remains active, with sustained winds of 70 mph, and is located about 430 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. TS Guillermo will maintain its current strength through the day, and then weaken going forward. Here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

1.)  A weak low pressure area, the remnant of tropical depression Eight-E, is located about 850 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. This feature has been moving west at 10 to 15 miles an hour. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for redevelopment of the system over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

~~~ Here’s a link to a satellite image …showing these two areas above ^^^

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)