Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

85 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
85 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 72  Molokai
93 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui – broke the record for Thursday…92 back in 1952
89 – 78  Kailua Kona
89 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

1.33  Kapahi, Kauai
1.65  Schofield Barracks, Oahu
0.03  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.68  Ulupalakua, Maui
0.31  Kapapala Ranch, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

15  Waimea heights, Kauai – S
10  Kahuku Trng, Oahu – NE
12  Molokai – ENE
10  Lanai – SW
18  Kahoolawe – E
15  Kaupo Gap, Maui – SE
22  Puu Mali, Big Island – NNE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) continues churning the waters over the
ocean to the east-southeast of Hawaii, with Hurricane Jimena
 following behind to the east…and Tropical Storm Kilo located to
the west-southwest of Hawaii

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP122015W.gif
Hurricane 12E (Ignacio)…is forecast to move by not
far offshore north of Hawaii – as a hurricane (H)

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/probwinds/EP122015_PROB34_F120.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Impressive storms to our lower right and left

Here’s a real time wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
Tropical Storm Kilo (left) – Hurricane Ignacio (right)


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy skies…with a towering cumulus
cloud near Kauai


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers…mostly over the offshore waters
looping radar image

Flash Flood Watch…Kauai, Oahu, Maui County –
through 6pm this evening

High Surf Advisory…west shores of the Big Island –
through Saturday

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will remain light and variable for the time being, with weak trades returning later today into the weekend…and then slipping away again soon thereafter. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large moderately strong high pressure system far to the north-northwest of the state. At the same time we see low pressure systems/troughs in most other directions. Our winds will be kept on the lighter side of normal, as these numerous low pressure systems continue to interrupt our normal trade wind flow. This light wind regime will keep muggy conditions over us a while longer. The trades, although lighter than normal for this time of year, should return with somewhat more comfortable conditions this weekend. As it stands now, a tropical cyclone is forecast to move close by to our north during the first couple of days of the new week…our local winds then will depend greatly upon its eventual track.

Unsettled weather will remain over the state a little while longer…then some drying into the weekend. The rather stagnant air flow over our area, continues to keep lots of moisture over most of the islands. There will continue to be off and on locally heavy showers over the islands during the afternoon hours today. We continue to have a Flash Flood Watch covering the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County through this afternoon. Whatever locally heavy rains that might form over the islands, could continue to cause flood advisories here and there. As the trade winds return into the weekend, with their somewhat drier weather…showers will favor the windward sides. As we push into the new week, conditions will very likely shift back into a wet reality again for several days.

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) continues to spin in our direction, and will approach our area later Sunday into Monday…first on the Big Island. This system is one we’re definitely watching very closely, even though it’s closest approach is a couple of days away. As it looks from here, we could turn very wet again by early next week…with some possible heavy weather coming our way. Then there’s always that chance that Ignacio will pass by just far enough to the north of the islands, which would bring less intense influences our way. It’s too early to know the exact details, in terms of winds and rain, although not too early to continue paying close attention to the inevitable changes that will occur going forward. Here’s a satellite image, and the CPHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing for what may turn out to be dangerous hurricane Ignacio in our area.

At the moment, and based on the most recent CPHC advisory, Hurricane Ignacio remains at category 1 strength. Looking ahead, there will be additional strengthening, bringing it up to strong category 2 hurricane strength (96 mph sustained winds with gusts to 110 mph) within 24-36 hours or so. Then, and this is where the better news hopefully begins, there should start to be a gradual weakening by Monday, back down into a somewhat less dangerous category 1 hurricane. We would like, ideally, to see this hurricane weaken further into a tropical storm (tropical storm winds 39-73 mph) before it gets too near our islands, time will tell if that happens…or not. At this point, it looks more and more likely that this won’t be happening, and that we could be dealing with a an unusually close call by hurricane Ignacio.

If Ignacio were to move by offshore to our north…this would be the best thing. The reason I say this is because the strongest winds around a tropical cyclone are in the northeast quadrant (upper right side in the direction it’s headed), at least in the northern hemisphere. If this storm were to go by offshore enough to our north, those strongest winds would likely remain away from our islands. This doesn’t mean however, that we wouldn’t get into the area of very blustery winds associated with Ignacio. On the other hand, if the hurricane drops southward closer to the islands, our winds could get very strong! There are more questions that will arise as we move forward, and these will keep us adjusting the outlook for the next several days. As we get into the weekend, we should have a better idea whether we should be battening down the hatches, or if Ignacio will slide by offshore enough, to keep most of the heaviest winds and rains away from our islands…stay tuned please.

Meanwhile, Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active in the eastern Pacific.  Yes, it’s as if there was a parade of tropical cyclones moving west this season!  Jimena has now become a category 1 hurricane. Thereafter, is expected to become a full-fledged Major Category 4 hurricane (category 4 has 130-156 mph winds) while still in the eastern Pacific. It’s a sure thing now, that this hurricane will come into our central Pacific, and as it stands now, as a major category 3 system…by Tuesday night coming up. Here’s a satellite image, and the NHC graphical track map, and what the computer models are showing. We aren’t worrying yet [why?] because we still have Hurricane Ignacio…to deal with first!

Here on Maui…It’s 535am Thursday morning, and it’s mostly clear as it started off the last several days!  I see one or two towering cumulus clouds over the ocean south of the Makena Beach area. Now that it’s a little lighter, I can see that there’s some thin cirrus clouds, which are lighting up a beautiful pink just before sunrise! As for the recent vog, there’s just a faint amount left, much less than the last few days. / Now at 1120am, the clouds are stacking up over the Haleakala Crater slopes, and over the West Maui Mountains too. It still looks sunny to partly sunny down at the beaches, which should continue for another few hours. As I look a little more closely, I can still see some light volcanic haze down in the central valley.

– We’re into the early afternoon now, with the clouds that have been forming over the Haleakala Crater since this morning, taking on a much darker tint now. It certainly seems as if these clouds are leading up to something, as they have all this week…especially during these afternoon hours. Despite the clouds up here in Kula, I can see that it’s mostly sunny to partly sunny down at our local beaches, which isn’t unusual. It won’t be long before the clouds lower enough, and fog closes me in, so that I won’t be able to have that view of the blue ocean down below. The air temperature here in Kula, at my 3,100 foot elevation, was 77 at 1pm. While at about the same time, down at the Kahului airport, it was 89 degrees…with a 61 degree reading atop the Haleakala Crater. I would expect to see a flood advisory coming out soon for parts of Oahu, as the rains are increasing there now. / Now at 125pm, we’re having our first shower of the afternoon, light to moderately heavy, nothing pouring down yet. It’s so nice to have that cooling from the air being brought down from elevation, pushed here by the falling raindrops, as I have my lunch…and get ready to give my Mom my regular daily telephone call there in Southern California. / Now at 2pm, what else is new, I have fog now covering this area, although once again, I can still faintly see sunshine down in the lowlands. The temperatures has fallen from 77 down to an even more comfortable 73 degrees now.

– We’re into the early evening now, with still lots of clouds around, or at least over the mountain slopes. Glancing down towards the beaches, they look mostly cloud free. I anticipate that the clouds will evaporate not too long after dark, and skies will remain mostly clear through the middle morning on Friday. I must admit, after looking at the latest hurricane forecast track, and consulting with the latest model runs, that my level of anxiety may have increased a notch. I’m still going to keep watching, as we still have more time for changing of the forecast tracks, and the associated weather that will come our way early next week.

Here’s the numbers today…during the last month there have been 438,001 visits to this website as of yesterday (Thursday). There had been 1,033,229 page impressions on this website during that same period. In terms of the number of clicks on the google ads on this site, there had been 2,517 as of yesterday. Thank you very much for visiting Hawaii Weather Today online!

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Friday wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa over the weekend. Some slow development is possible through the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cape Verde Islands at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea:

Tropical Storm 05L (Erika) remains active now over the Caribbean Islands, with sustained winds of 50 mph…and is located about 65 miles south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 13E (Jimena) remains active in the northeast Pacific, with sustained winds of 90 mph…and is located about 1075 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane 12E (Ignacio) remains active in the central Pacific, with sustained winds of 90 mph…and is located about 840 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing

Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo) remains active, with sustained winds of 70 mph, and is located about 875 miles south-southeast of Midway Island. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing. It looks very likely that TS Kilo will become a category 1 hurricane today…and will strengthen further through the weekend…although posing no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Yosemite Black Bears’ Diet Surprises Researchers – Black bears in Yosemite National Park that don’t seek out human foods subsist primarily on plants and nuts, according to a study conducted by biologists at UC San Diego who also found that ants and other sources of animal protein, such as mule deer, make up only a small fraction of the bears’ annual diet.

Their study, published in this week’s early online edition of the journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution, might surprise bear ecologists and conservationists who had long assumed that black bears in the Sierra Nevada rely on lots of protein from ants and other insects because their remains are frequently found in bear feces. Instead, the researchers believe that bears likely eat ants for nutrient balance.

Rather than relying on indigestible foods found in bear feces for information about the importance of digestible bear foods, the UC San Diego ecologists looked at the digestible foods that were used to produce bear tissue. They accomplished this by measuring the abundances of carbon and nitrogen isotopes found in different species of plants and animals, and used a statistical approach to relate them to the carbon and nitrogen isotopes measured in bear hair. This allowed the scientists to quantify what the bears ate, then assimilated into their hair.

The scientists also applied the same technique to Norway rats in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands and determined that this invasive species subsisted largely on terrestrial plants and seasonal pulses of marine amphipods, rather than marine birds as had been long assumed.

“Rats tend to dominate the habitats they invade on islands, killing much of the native fauna, especially birds, which is a serious conservation issue,” said Carolyn Kurle, an assistant professor of biology at UC San Diego who conducted the study with Jack Hopkins, a postdoctoral fellow. “Using stable isotopes, we confirmed that marine birds have been extirpated to such levels on the islands where we worked that rats don’t eat them anymore.”

“Both rats and black bears are omnivores with complex diets consisting of both plants and animals,” said Hopkins. “To our knowledge, no study before this has accurately estimated the relative importance of plants and animals to the diets of these omnivore populations.”

Hopkins said he and Kurle found in their study that plants and acorns are black bears’ primary food sources in Yosemite. “We also learned that female bears foraged for high-fat acorns and pine nuts more heavily than males, suggesting that females likely need these seeds for reproduction. This could be a real problem for Sierra black bears in the future if blister rust continues to kill sugar pines and sudden oak death moves in from the coast.”

Besides resolving the issue of what black bears and Norway rats actually use for growth and function, the scientists said a major goal of their study was to demonstrate how the use of stable isotopes derived from animal tissues and their prey could be used to quantify the resource use of other omnivores with complex diets.

“Ecologists currently focus too much attention on measuring the variation of isotope data for consumers and their prey and not enough attention on quantifying the interactions of consumers and their prey using isotope data,” Hopkins explained. “Measuring such interactions and their relative strengths can help us understand the impacts animals have on their environment.”

Over the past two decades, black bears in Yosemite were involved in more than 12,000 reported incidents within the national park, injuring nearly 50 people and causing $3.7 million worth of property damage. In response to these problems, Congress has appropriated over $8 million since 1999 to mitigate human-bear conflicts in Yosemite.

Those efforts appear to be working. In a study published last year in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Hopkins and other scientists measured the stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in the hair and bone of Yosemite bears over the past century and found that since 1999, the proportion of human-derived food in bear diets has dramatically declined.

“Yosemite bears currently consume human foods in a similar proportion as they did in the early 1900s,” said Hopkins. “This suggests a notable management achievement in the park, considering that thousands of people visited Yosemite annually in the early 1900s, while about four million people visit each year today.”