Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the minimums Sunday:

90 – 78  Lihue, Kauai – the record Sunday was 93…back in 1983
90 – 80  Honolulu, Oahu – the record Sunday of 93…back in 1995
90 – 77  Molokai
95 – 81  Kahului AP, Maui –  the record Sunday was 96…back in 1983
90 – 79  Kailua Kona
88 – 76  Hilo, Hawaii 

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Sunday night:

1.75  Kapahi, Kauai
3.30  Mililani, Oahu
1.02  Molokai AP, Molokai
0.02  Lanai
1.99  Kahoolawe
1.11  Kepuni, Maui
1.95  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday night:

13  Puu Lua, Kauai – NE
09  Kuaokala, Oahu – SE
17  Molokai – SE
18  Lanai – S
17  Kahoolawe – ESE
12  Kula 1, Maui – SE
15  South Point, Big Island – ENE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo) remains active to our
southwest…with other areas of low pressure stretched
out across the deeper tropics to our southeast to
east-southeast…all the way to Mexico

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP032015W.gif
The next advisory track map will be issued at 11am…I’m glad
to see that Kilo continues to turn towards the northwest
later in this week…further away from Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
The area to the southwest is Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo)
with Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) far to the west-northwest…by
the way the area to the east-southeast of Hawaii is being called
Invest 95E…here’s a closer look

Here’s a real time wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
what’s happening here in the central Pacific


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Partly to mostly cloudy skies, thunderstorms over the nearby
ocean…shifting over the islands at times – with a very large
area of precipitation over central islands now!


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around the islands, some are heavy…
with thunderstorms over the islands locally
looping radar image

Flash Flood Watch…across the entire state – through
6pm this evening

Flash Flood Warning…Oahu and east Maui – until 7am

Flood Advisory…Maui County – until 745am

Marine Weather Statement…widespread heavy
showers and embedded thunderstorms continue

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds will remain soft, mostly from the southeast through Tuesday…with light trades returning Wednesday into next weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system far to the north and northeast of the state. At the same time we see low pressure systems northwest and well southeast and east-southeast…with tropical cyclone Kilo to our southwest. Our winds from the southeast continue to bring volcanic haze (vog) over some parts of the island chain…from the vents on the Big Island. Our winds will be kept on the lighter side of normal, by an area of low pressure located to the north of the state now. It should be pointed out that tropical cyclone Kilo remains rather disorganized, although it will come together and strengthen again soon. As a matter of fact, most of the models are still wanting bring it up to a category 1 hurricane with time…stay tuned.

Unsettled weather, under the influence of a very unstable atmosphere…will remain over the state into Tuesday or Wednesday. As noted above, our winds are coming up from the southeast, which is carrying copious amounts of moisture up from the deeper tropics. The air will feel very sultry and hot during the days, and very warm at night too. There will continue to be off and on heavy rains, and some serious thunderstorm cells over the islands for another couple of days. We continue to have a Flash Flood Watch covering the entire state…which runs through Monday evening. Whatever thunderstorms and locally heavy rains that get over the islands, will continue to prompt flood advisories and  flash flood warnings here and there.  As the trade winds return Wednesday or so into next weekend, the focus for showers will gradually shift over to the windward sides. However, these trades will be on the light side, so we may continue to see afternoon showers over the leeward interior sections well into the future.

All of the weather models now show what will then be Hurricane Kilo moving by well offshore to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Tropical depression Kilo at the moment is moving in a  northwesterly direction at about 7 mph. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical depression, along with these model runs. The latest CPHC forecast has Kilo intensifying to near 75 mph, which would be a category 1 hurricane…by Friday. As I was mentioning above, Kilo has gone through some changes, weakening from a tropical storm back down to a tropical depression. The models want to kick it back up into a tropical storm later today, and then eventually reaching hurricane status by Friday. There continues to be a some threat to the islands from Kilo’s passage…although it continues to be less and less now. As we know from past tropical cyclone approaches, these outlooks change often, several times a day even, so check back frequently to see the latest weather information.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 540am Sunday morning, and still too dark for me to see what’s going on out there. I don’t hear any thunder or see any lightning, although my eaves are still dripping from showers during the night. It looks cloudy, and I can’t see any of the lights down in Kahului from here in Kula, which could be from the voggy conditions, rain falling between here and there…or just clouds. As it gets light enough, I’ll let you know. By the way, the low temperature up here at the 3,100 foot elevation in Kula was a relatively very warm 70.5 degrees this morning…one of my warmest mornings in a very long time. / Now at 650am I can see that our skies are totally cloudy here on Maui, with thick volcanic haze restricting visibilities greatly. / At 1120am there is some sunshine beaming down, although that is sure making the air feel hot and muggy! Looking down into the central valley from here in Kula, its still way voggy down there. So far today, there was one very short, maybe five minute period of light showers earlier this morning. I get a feeling of clearing skies, and no sign of rain in sight at the moment.

– We’re into the early afternoon now, and that very warm sunshine a little while ago, really set off an increase in clouds! It’s now cloudy, and wisps of fog are being carried up the mountain on the cooling breezes. It wasn’t long ago that I was dreading a hot afternoon, although now I can see it will be much more comfortable…with the clouds closing in now. It wouldn’t be surprising to be back in a little while, to report pea soup fog has settled in over me, which would be fine. Just for comparison, it’s 77 degrees here at my place in Kula, and at about the same time, it was 91 degrees in Kahului…and 90 in Kapalua on the upper west side. / Literally just 15 minutes later…it’s raining heavily here in Kula, although I can still see sunshine down towards the beaches – and now it’s so foggy that I can’t see down the mountain anymore, pea soup foggy! / Now at 145pm, and there’s a big thunderstorm going off just up the mountain from here, with really loud claps of thunder booming around, our weather is just going nuts…I love it! / Ok, the thunder and lightning has backed off some now, I guess to make space for this heavy downpour of rain at 315pm here in Kula. I still see a ton of sunshine beaming down in the central valley, although definitely punctuated by thick volcanic haze.

– It’s now 6pm, and here in Kula, it’s majorly foggy, with a moderately heavy shower falling. I just glanced at the radar image above, it is an impressive sight! These heavy rains are still with us, and those red spots are where the heaviest stuff is. Each of the islands is within range of these heavy showers, and so as we head into the evening and night, we’re gonna be hearing more showers on our roofs, and thunder and lightning won’t be far away either – or even right overhead! / It’s now 1145pm, and looking at the radar image above, it’s a bit unnerving, as there’s such an intense area of serious looking thunderstorms just to our north! I’d prefer that they stay offshore, and not envelop our islands with yet more serious flooding…time will tell.

Friday Evening Film: This time around I went to see a film that looked good, and the critics seemed to be very happy with it too. It’s called Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, starring Tom Cruise, Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg, Alec Baldwin, Rebecca Ferguson, Jingchu Zhang, and Jessica Williams…among many others. The synopsis: with the IMF disbanded, and Ethan (Tom Cruise) out in the cold, the team now faces off against a network of highly skilled special agents, the Syndicate. These operatives are hellbent on creating a new world order through an escalating series of terrorist attacks. Ethan gathers his team and joins forces with disavowed British agent Ilsa Faust (Rebecca Ferguson), who may or may not be a member of this rogue nation…as the group faces their most impossible mission yet.

I went to see this film with my friend Linda, who I visit in Marin County, California during my fall and spring vacations. She also has a place here on Maui, and she doesn’t really care for action films. A friend of hers told her it was a good film, so it gave her the confidence to give it a try, and as it turned out…she wasn’t all that taken with it. She mentioned to me today though, she was glad to have seen it, as it showed her what she didn’t want to see more of. I on the other hand found it perfectly entertaining, and enjoyable. It was an intelligent espionage plot, with good acting from all its characters. It had pretty much everything one would need from an active film, including great set pieces, reckless driving in fast cars, clever humor, and an attractive woman playing a major part. This women actually saved Tom Cruises life several times. As for a grade, well, I’ll tip my hat in the direction of a B+ rating, better than a straight up B, but not getting into the A- category. If you have any interest..here’s the trailer.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Former Tropical cyclone 4L (Danny) is dissipating into a trough of low pressure, with sustained winds of 30 mph…and is located about 70 miles west-southwest of Guadeloupe. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing – Final Advisory has been issued

1.)   Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite data also indicates that the low’s circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward at around 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

– Here’s a satellite image of this tropical disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing, for what’s being referred to as Invest 98L

2.)   A tropical wave located near the Cape Verde Islands is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive across the tropical Atlantic Ocean this week, and development of this system is unlikely while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Cape Verde Islands today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   Satellite data overnight that the circulation of the slow-moving low pressure area located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has also become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the low begins to move slowly northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

– Here’s a satellite image of this tropical disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing, for what’s being referred to as Invest 95E

2.)   Disorganized shower activity located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Depression 03C (Kilo) remains active, with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 680 miles southwest of Barking Sands, Hawaii. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what a couple of the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 04C (Loke) remains active, with sustained winds of 65 mph, and is located about 210 miles south of Midway Island. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

>>> Here’s a satellite image showing these areas

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Typhoon 16W (Goni) remains active with sustained winds of 110 knots, and is located about 215 NM south-southwest of Sasebo, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 17W (Atsani) remains active with sustained winds of 60 knots, and is located about 570 NM east of Yokosuka, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  How a warming climate is impacting wild boar in Europe – Increasingly mild winters have caused an abundance of acorns and beech nuts in Europe’s woodlands, writes Paul Brown, triggering a wild boar population explosion – just one of the effects of warming climate on wildlife populations.

Wild boar populations in Europe are getting out of control – and scientists are blaming climate change.

There are now millions of wild boar spreading out from their preferred woodland habitat, moving into city suburbs, and even crossing national boundaries to countries that had thought they were extinct.

In some countries, notably France and Germany, which have always had wild boar populations in their forests, they are a major cause of road accidents.

France has an estimated two million boar, and the German state of Hesse alone has 180,000. Berlin, the German capital, is erecting boar fencing around its borders in an attempt to keep the animals out of the city.

Scientists from the Research Institute for Wildlife Ecology at the University of Veterinary Medicine in Vienna, Austria, report in the journal PLOS ONE that they chose the animal to study because “the wild boar has an enormous reproductive capacity, and thus the potential for remarkable population growth when environmental conditions become more favorable.”

Wild boar can have five or more young in a litter, can live as long as 12 years, and females can reach sexual maturity within their first year if there is plenty of food available.

Warmer weather means more nuts and acorns

The scientists believe that the increasingly frequent mild winters in Europe and the extra production of acorns and beechnuts by trees are aiding boar survival rates. Both factors are the result of climate change, they say.

The number of animals has been increasing since the 1980s. Because boars are secretive, nocturnal animals, the scientists had to use hunting records and road accidents to help count the animals in 12 European countries.

“Doing this, we were able to depict the growth of the wild boar population”, says the report’s lead author, Sebastian Vetter, an evolutionary biologist. “As mild winters are becoming more frequent, boar populations are also growing exponentially.”

Climate change is also having a direct effect on food supply, the authors say, with the increasing frequency of ‘mast years’ – years when trees produce huge quantities of acorns and nuts – also aiding the animals’ survival. They attribute the phenomenon to warming climate.

In severe winters, a large number of young from the previous summer used to die of cold and hunger, but the extra food supply available, even in cold spells, is enabling more to survive.

“Our analysis showed that the frequency of beech masting years has increased over the last decades, presumably due to climate change. This finding, together with the fact that cold winters had no negative effect on population growth when food resources were abundant, shows that the effect of climate change on population growth of wild boar is two-fold:

“Cold winters have become rarer and, on top of this, the remaining severe winters became increasingly ineffective in diminishing wild boar populations because of the increasing frequency of masting years. In such years, beech or oak trees produce vast amounts of energy rich seeds that are available from autumn until spring in the following year.

“If abundant, this food source likely enables juveniles to cope even with high thermoregulatory costs in a severe winter, and adults to accumulate high amounts of body energy reserves for reproduction in the following year. This result also indicates that low survival in cold winters is apparently not caused by a limited thermogenic capacity.

“Instead, increased winter mortality seems to be caused by a negative energy balance, i.e., when high thermoregulatory costs, due to severe cold, cannot be matched by the available food, especially when high caloric seeds are absent.”

From Italy to Sweden, populations surge

Wild boars are one of the most widely distributed of animals, with their numbers varying between northern and southern latitudes. However, the survival rate of boar populations in Europe seems to be increasing across all countries.

One of the reasons for the wider spread of boar populations has been the fashion for their meat. Wild boar farms have been established in countries where the species had long ago been hunted to extinction. But farmers, unfamiliar with the animals, were not prepared for their ability to break down or jump fences as high as two metres, and many boars escaped into the wild.

Sweden, for example, had no wild boar 10 years ago, but now has an estimated 150,000 in its forests. The UK also has a small but well-entrenched boar population for the first time in 500 years.

Italy, well to the south, has always had wild boar, but has also seen a huge growth in their numbers. There are now estimated to be between 600,000 and 1 million animals. Some are seen on the outskirts of Rome, Genoa and Naples, where they eat from dustbins.