Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

88 – 74  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 72  Molokai
94 – 72  Kahului AP, Maui – broke the record Thursday of 92…back in 1951
89 – 76  Kailua Kona
88 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

2.07  Kapahi, Kauai
2.99  Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.76  Molokai 1, Molokai
0.01  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.26  Kula Branch Station, Maui
0.70  Hakalau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

14  Puu Opae, Kauai – SSW 
20  Makua Range, Oahu – SE
22  Molokai – ENE
25  Lanai – NE
27  Kahoolawe – NE
25  Maalaea Bay, Maui – N 
27  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
 There’s a counter-clockwise rotating area of low
pressure south-southeast of the Big Island,
called Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo)

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP032015W.gif
This is the current forecast track – as of 5am HST…
the next advisory track map will be issued at 11am

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/probwinds/CP032015_PROB34_F120.gif

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/CP042015W.gif
Tropical Depression 04C…is not a threat to Hawaii

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
The area to the south-southeast is Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo)
 and Tropical Depression 04C is to the west-southwest

Here’s a real time wind profile…so we can keep an eye on
these two tropical cyclones here in the central Pacific


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy skies…towering cumulus clouds
offshore to our northwest…with the northern fringe
of Tropical Storm Kilo well to our south


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
There are showers around the islands…mostly
over the nearby ocean – looping radar image

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds are shifting back to the classic trade wind direction now…lasting into the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, moderately strong high pressure system to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we see a weak low pressure system just northwest of the state. This area is causing the winds to be quite light around Kauai, although that will be changing soon. As this low pressure trough moves further away, we’ll find a more normal trade wind weather pattern returning for several days. The wind speeds and directions for late this weekend into early next week…will be influenced by Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo) as it moves by to our south. There’s a good chance it may bump up our trade wind speeds, into the strong and gusty realms…with time.

We’ll see a few heavy showers, focused over the Kauai end of the state…for a little while longer. The atmosphere remains moist and unstable, which will keep the chance of heavy downpours in the forecast over those western islands. A surface low pressure trough is moving away from Kauai now, with an upper level low pressure system a good distance to the north of Kauai as well. These low pressure features will work together to keep the atmosphere shower prone a little while longer. As the trade winds return now into Friday, shower activity, will shift back over to our windward sides. Looking ahead, there’s a chance that moisture associated with Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo), at least the northern fringe of this system…will bring an increase in showers this weekend. Beyond that, there’s a question as to what will occur, as described below.

All of the weather models continue to show a tropical cyclone moving closer to the state…by early next week.  Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo) is moving in a west-northwest direction at about 16 mph. Here’s a satellite image of this tropical storm, along with what the computer models are showing…and another set of model runs as well. The GFS model shows a hurricane moving by just to the west of Kauai late next Tuesday. The latest CPHC forecast has this system intensifying to 98 mph next Tuesday evening, which would be a category 2 hurricane…wherever it happens to be then. As we know from past tropical cyclone approaches, these outlooks change on a daily basis, so check back often to see the latest.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 550am Thursday morning, skies are mostly clear for a change…although it is somewhat voggy too. / Now at 1015am, it’s clear to partly cloudy, with light vog still in our air too. / 1130am finds the island partly cloudy, with cloudy conditions over and around the mountains. This of course includes my area of Kula, where the clouds have been gathering all morning. I can still see down into the central valley for the time being, where I can see patchy sunny areas…along with that volcanic haze too. / Interesting, just 20 minutes later, at 1150am, the clouds overhead have taken on a much darker cast, and it feels like our first shower, or rain for the day is almost upon us.

– The first drops of rain arrived within 1-2 minutes of when they started yesterday (12 noon), and once again…big drops on my weather deck. A friend of mine just sent me a text saying that it was nice and sunny down in Spreckelsville, with trade winds blowing white caps on the ocean surface. This is good evidence that the trades are nosing in from the east, and likely will limit the afternoon showers today…at least in terms of intensities. / Now at 130pm, it’s totally dark up here in Kula, while it looks totally, or at least partially sunny down closer to the coasts. It’s very lightly showering, with a little fog trying to form in the tree tops now. / It’s raining very hard now at 145pm! / Oh well, so much for the returning trades limiting the intensity of our afternoon showers today! / At 3pm I just heard a big clap of thunder towards Keokea and Ulupalakua…while looking out the other window, I see the trade winds are keeping the skies to the north, down near the Kahului airport and Paia – such interesting weather these days!

– We’re into the early evening hours now, and the heavy clouds from earlier in the day have mostly settled down. This is mostly because the trade winds are back now, and not only helping to ventilate our recent voggy conditions, but also is making our overlying atmosphere less shower prone. We may begin to see a few clouds and showers being carried in our direction by the trades…depositing them along our windward sides. I expect Friday will be a nice day, as opposed to several of the last few days, when heavy afternoon showers, and even some thunderstorms were present over parts of Maui County. 


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 4L (Danny) remains active, with sustained winds of 105 mph, category 2 hurricane…and is located about 930 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.)  A broad non-tropical area of low pressure is located a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system is interacting with an upper-level low and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly to the east of the surface low. Environmental conditions could support some tropical or subtropical development while this system moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic Ocean through the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.)  A tropical wave located just off of the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

3.)  Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000 miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend while the disturbance moves westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.)  A low pressure area is expected to form well south of the coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should support gradual development of the system while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm 03C (Kilo) remains active, with sustained winds of 40 mph, and is located about 535 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what a couple of the computer models are showing.

Tropical Depression 04C remains active, with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 515 miles west of Johnston Island. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.) An area of low pressure with associated deep convection is located about 1260 miles southwest of Honolulu. Development, if any, would be slow to occur.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

>>> Here’s a satellite image showing these areas

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Typhoon 16W (Goni) remains active with sustained winds of 95 knots, and is located about 345 NM south of Taipei. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Typhoon 17W (Atsani) remains active with sustained winds of 100 knots, and is located about 233 NM east-northeast of Iwo Two. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  How will global food supply be affected by climate change? – In 2007, drought struck the bread baskets of Europe, Russia, Canada, and Australia. Global grain stocks were already scant, so wheat prices began to rise rapidly. When countries put up trade barriers to keep their own harvests from being exported, prices doubled, according to an index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Just 3 years later, another spike in food prices contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings.

Such weather-related crop disasters will become more likely with climate change, warns a detailed report released today by the Global Food Security (GFS) program, a network of public research funding agencies in the United Kingdom. “The risks are serious and should be a cause for concern,” writes David King, the U.K. Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, in a foreword to the report.

To create the lengthy evaluation, dozens of scientists, policy wonks, and industry experts examined the global food system and its vulnerabilities to severe weather. They created a “plausible” worst case scenario: drought hitting four key staples—wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans—simultaneously. (The worrying precedents are a drought in 1988 to 1989 that cut yields of corn by an estimated 12% worldwide and soybeans by 8.5%, and a 2002 to 2003 drought that afflicted wheat and rice to a lesser extent.) If such a calamity struck next year, it would likely cause the price of grain to triple, the researchers suggest.

The chance of major global crop failures of this magnitude will increase with climate change, as drought, flooding, and heat waves strike fields more often. To estimate the odds, the researchers turned to existing models of how crops respond to temperature, precipitation, and other factors. By 2040, severe crop failures previously estimated to occur once a century are likely to happen every 3 decades, the report finds. The researchers emphasize that the risk analysis is preliminary. The report also highlights recent research indicating that the ever larger volumes of globally traded food raise the risk of large price shocks. Biofuel mandates, in which corn and other crops are turned into fuel, are thought to exacerbate the problem by cutting grain surpluses.