Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the minimums Wednesday:

87 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
77 73  Molokai
9073  Kahului AP, Maui
the record Wednesday was 98…set back in 1951!
87 – 77  Kailua Kona
88 – 73  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Wednesday evening:

1.37  Moloaa Dairy, Kauai
0.28  Kii, Oahu
1.15  Molokai AP, Molokai
0.04  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
1.94  Ulupalakua, Maui
2.19  Pohakuloa Keamuku, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Wednesday evening:

17  Puu Opae, Kauai – SW
21  Wheeler AAF,
Oahu – SE
12  Molokai – SE
15  Lanai – SSW

12  Kahoolawe – SW
13  Hana, Maui – SE

21  South Point, Big Island – ENE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
There’s a counter-clockwise rotating area of low
pressure north of Hawaii, while the tropics southwest
and southeast are full of active thunderstorms

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
There are areas of thunderstorms well offshore to the
west, southwest, south and southeast – I’m closely
watching the area to the southeast

Here’s a real time wind profile…so we can keep an eye on this area


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to cloudy skies…clouds mostly over the
interior sections, although with clearing tonight


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

There are showers around the islands, a few of
which are heavy…especially north of Oahu at
the time of this writing – looping radar image


~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our winds are variable in direction, although generally southeast, gradually shifting to the east into Thursday…first on the Big Island. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, strong high pressure system to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we see a trough of low pressure near the western islands. This trough of low pressure is causing the winds to be quite light, and blow from the southeast. It will likely take until Thursday…before a more normal trade wind weather pattern returns for a couple of days. The upcoming wind speeds and directions for later this weekend into early next week…may be influenced by an approaching tropical system.

We’ll see heavy showers here and there, with localized flooding…with the threat ending as we head into Thursday. The atmosphere remains moist and unstable, which will keep the chance of heavy downpours in the forecast tonight locally. A surface low pressure trough is near Kauai, with an upper level low pressure system north of Kauai as well. These low pressure features will work together to keep our atmosphere shower prone a little while longer. As the trade winds return into Thursday, first on the Big Island side of the state, shower activity will shift back over to our windward sides then. We should push back into a more normal trade wind weather pattern then into Saturday. Beyond that, there’s a question as to what will occur, as described below.

Tropical Cyclones:  Many weather models are showing a tropical system moving close to the state…later this weekend into early next week. It would be prudent to pay attention to this situation. We may see a tropical cyclone forming to the southeast of the Big Island. We can use this satellite image to see this area marked with a orange X…which has a 80% chance of developing over the next 2-days. This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 93C. Here’s a satellite image of this area – along with what some of the computer models are showing. The GFDL model shows a tropical storm moving through the central islands between Oahu and Maui…and then moving offshore to the northeast. Here’s yet another set of model runs, showing even more possibilities.

As we can see, there continues to be quite a wide spread in all these forecast solutions above…so nothing is certain yet. The point is that there will likely be something trying to spin-up over the next couple of days, in that area of clouds described above…well to the southeast of our Hawaiian Islands. In a nutshell, the low pressure systems that have brought our current unsettled weather conditions, generally near Kauai, will be moving away soon.  As they go, this area being referred to as Invest 93C, which has been stationary the last several days…may start moving northward towards us in turn. The long and short of all this is, that we may see more unsettled weather, with potential heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds, returning to parts of the island chain this coming weekend…stay tuned.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Wednesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 545am Wednesday morning, skies are partly cloudy, although its still too dark at the moment to say much more than that. It’s a couple of minutes later now, and I can see some well developed cumulus clouds stacked-up over parts of the West Maui Mountains…dropping generous showers in that area. / At 1125am, looking down into the central valley, from here in Kula, I see moderately thick volcanic haze (vog)…with lots of low clouds over most areas. As I look down towards the Kahului airport, I see that the airplanes are still landing from over the ocean, rather than the usual direction they come in from, the north, when the trade winds are blowing.

We’re into the early afternoon now, and the rains started here in Kula at exactly noon, varying from light to briefly heavy. I can still see the vog down in the central valley, and its very sunny down near the beaches in places too. / It’s 220pm here in upcountry Maui, at my place in upper Kula, and it’s pouring, yes, really coming down hard…and has been for some time! This is flooding intensity, or at least has been for the last 10-15 minutes! The air temperature has dropped into the upper 60’s, with the amount of cooler air aloft, that is being carried down to the ground here at my weather tower in Kula…and this is summer!? It is POURING now at 235pm…and I mean POURING! It’s now 255pm and its starting to ease up a little, and I didn’t hear any thunder or see lightning, although as soon as I’m writing this…its getting very heavy again! I might be hearing thunder, although the falling rain is so heavy and loud, I can’t be sure? I’m surprised the NWS office in Honolulu hasn’t issued a flash flood warning.

Well, here we are in the early evening hours, and the showers have stopped here in upcountry Kula, at least here at my weather tower. Looking around however, I can still see some showers in the general vicinity, actually not that far away now that I look more closely. / Now at 535pm it’s starting to rain again, not hard yet, but steady light rain.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Hurricane 4L (Danny) remains active, with sustained winds of 75 mph, and is located about 1090 miles east of the Windward Islands. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing.

1.)  A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this trough over the western Atlantic during the next day or two, and environmental conditions should support some subsequent tropical or subtropical development over the weekend while this disturbance moves slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent

2.) A tropical wave near the coast of west Africa is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become marginally favorable for some development of this system by the weekend while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
Gulf of Mexico:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   A broad area of nearly stationary low pressure was located about 900 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii or about 1050 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. Environmental conditions will support development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high…80 percent

2.)   An area of nearly stationary pulsing convection was located about 1500 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Environmental conditions may support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

3.)   An area of nearly stationary persistent convection was located about 1200 miles southwest of Honolulu. This feature appeared to be embedded in the ITCZ, and should have little chance to develop.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…near 0%

>>> Here’s a satellite image showing these areas

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Typhoon 16W (Goni) 
remains active with sustained winds of 115 knots, and is located east-northeast of Luzon Island, Philippines. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite imageand what the computer models are showing.

Super Typhoon 17W (Atsani) remains active with sustained winds of 135 knots, and is located north-northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite imageand what computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>>
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  How will global food supply be affected by climate change? – In 2007, drought struck the bread baskets of Europe, Russia, Canada, and Australia. Global grain stocks were already scant, so wheat prices began to rise rapidly. When countries put up trade barriers to keep their own harvests from being exported, prices doubled, according to an index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Just 3 years later, another spike in food prices contributed to the Arab Spring uprisings.

Such weather-related crop disasters will become more likely with climate change, warns a detailed report released today by the Global Food Security (GFS) program, a network of public research funding agencies in the United Kingdom. “The risks are serious and should be a cause for concern,” writes David King, the U.K. Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change, in a foreword to the report.

To create the lengthy evaluation, dozens of scientists, policy wonks, and industry experts examined the global food system and its vulnerabilities to severe weather. They created a “plausible” worst case scenario: drought hitting four key staples—wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans—simultaneously. (The worrying precedents are a drought in 1988 to 1989 that cut yields of corn by an estimated 12% worldwide and soybeans by 8.5%, and a 2002 to 2003 drought that afflicted wheat and rice to a lesser extent.) If such a calamity struck next year, it would likely cause the price of grain to triple, the researchers suggest.

The chance of major global crop failures of this magnitude will increase with climate change, as drought, flooding, and heat waves strike fields more often. To estimate the odds, the researchers turned to existing models of how crops respond to temperature, precipitation, and other factors. By 2040, severe crop failures previously estimated to occur once a century are likely to happen every 3 decades, the report finds. The researchers emphasize that the risk analysis is preliminary. The report also highlights recent research indicating that the ever larger volumes of globally traded food raise the risk of large price shocks. Biofuel mandates, in which corn and other crops are turned into fuel, are thought to exacerbate the problem by cutting grain surpluses.