Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:
85 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
89 – 76 Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 73 Molokai
90 – 73 Kahului AP, Maui – the record Tuesday was 94 …set back in 1979
89 – 79 Kailua Kona
86 – 72 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:
3.26 Wainiha, Kauai
4.88 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.52 Makapulapai, Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.10 Kahoolawe
2.60 Kahakuloa, Maui
3.04 Kealakomo, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:
12 Mana, Kauai – W
14 Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
10 Molokai – ESE
13 Lanai – SSW
14 Kahoolawe – SSW
13 Maalaea Bay, Maui – S
17 South Point, Big Island – ESE
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
The are several counter-clockwise rotating areas of low
pressure north and well east of Hawaii, while the tropics
to our south and southeast are full of active thunderstorms
There are areas of thunderstorms well offshore to the
north, west, south and southeast – I’m closely
watching the area to the southeast
Partly to mostly cloudy skies…with thunderstorms north,
with rain in the vicinity of the eastern islands
There are showers around the islands, some of which are
heavy…with localized flooding – looping radar image
Flash Flood Watch…Kauai, Oahu, Maui County – until
6pm this evening / Be very careful driving and when
you’re out and about!
Flood Advisory…parts of Molokai – until 645am /
parts of Lanai – until 630am
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our local winds are variable in direction, although generally southeast…gradually shifting to the east over the next few days. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large, strong high pressure system to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we see a trough of low pressure near the islands. This trough of low pressure is causing the winds to be quite weak, and blow from the southeast. It will likely take until Thursday…before a more normal trade wind weather pattern resumes for a couple of days. The upcoming wind speeds and directions for the weekend into early next week…may be influenced by an approaching tropical system.
We’ll see heavy showers here and there…with localized flooding. The atmosphere remains moist and unstable, which will keep the chance of heavy downpours in the forecast tonight. A surface low pressure trough is near Kauai, with an upper level low pressure system moving closer to Kauai as well. These low pressure features will team up to keep showers over the state. There’s a chance that some of this rainfall may trigger localized flooding tonight, perhaps again Wednesday over Kauai and Oahu. As the trade winds return after the middle of the week, shower activity will shift back over to our windward sides then. We should push back into a more normal trade winds weather pattern Thursday into Saturday. Beyond that, there’s a question as to what will occur, as described below.
Tropical Cyclones: Some of the reliable weather models are showing a tropical system moving close to the state…later this weekend into early next week. It would be prudent to pay attention to this situation through the next several days. We may see a tropical cyclone forming to the southeast or south-southeast of the Big Island. We can use this satellite image, with the area marked with an orange X…which has a 60% chance of developing over the next 2-days. This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 93C. Here’s a satellite image of this area – along with what some of the computer models are showing. As we can see, there continues to be quite a spread in these forecast solutions, so nothing is certain yet. The point is, that there’s something trying to spin up, or is likely to become active over the next day or two..stay tuned.
I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui…It’s 545am Tuesday morning, skies are partly cloudy. / Now at 745am, the low clouds that were blanketing my area earlier, I can see that it’s mostly clear over our island. I can also see some clouds around the edges, with even a few towering cumulus in the distance. This of course confirms that our overlying atmosphere remains unstable and very shower prone. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some heavy showers falling again this afternoon locally…with even a thundershower here and there. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 63.3 degrees, while it was a warmer 74 down in Kahului, 77 out in Hana, and a cooler 45 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time. / Now at 850am, conditions are shutting down here in upcountry Kula, with the clouds increasing very quickly! / It’s now 950am, and the clouds have back down a little, enough for me to see lots of sunshine still beaming down into the central valley / We’ve had a couple of light sprinkles…although nothing near rain yet at 1055am.
– We’re into the very early afternoon, and its cloudy, foggy, and has been raining here in Kula. Before the clouds overtook my view, I could see partly sunny conditions hanging on down near the beaches. Now just 10 minutes after that last update, the rain stopped, and the sun is trying to break through…very changeable day! Oops, a few minutes later, and I mean just a few minutes, its now pea soup foggy…and there’s quarter sized big drops of rain falling. / About now you might be wondering “why in the world is he telling us all about the weather at his place in Kula, Maui?” Well, that’s a good question, and the truth is that I’ve been telling people about the weather wherever I am…all my life. I started off with my Mom and Dad, and its gone forward from there, yes, right up until this very moment. Oh, it just started raining again, after a nice little break. I honestly don’t know why I feel compelled to do this, it’s just inside me, and it just somehow wants to be expressed. Thank you for reading. In the background, besides listening to the rain, and water dripping off the eaves, I’m listening to a man named Werner Erhard, an interesting speaker who I stumbled upon…talking to a large group of people on the subject of “Heart of the Matter”. / Here in Kula its pouring again at 210pm, with my thermometer reading 70 degrees, which is cool for this time of year, compared to 84 down at Kahului at the same time, under cloudy skies.
– We’re into the early evening now, and here in Kula, after a break from the showers, here they are again, starting off quite light…although building up steam steadily. Now at 605pm, it’s foggy up here in Kula, so I can’t see down the mountain, so I don’t know how cloudy or sunny it is down towards the beaches. / It’s now 825pm here in Kula, and of course totally dark, although I can hear the rain steadily coming down. I just got a text from a friend in Haiku, on the windward side of east Maui, and she said it was raining over there now too. Wow, this weather is really something…I have to say I love it!
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean:
Tropical Storm 4L (Danny) remains active, with sustained winds of 50 mph, and is located about 1385 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, and a satellite image. Here’s what the computer models are showing. This tropical storm is expected to become a hurricane within 36-48 hours…remaining away from land.
1.) A non-tropical area of low pressure could form within a couple of hundred miles of Bermuda over the western Atlantic Ocean in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally favorable for some tropical or subtropical development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) A broad area of nearly stationary low pressure is about 915 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium…60 percent
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Typhoon 16W (Goni) remains active with sustained winds of 100 knots, and is located south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
Super Typhoon 17W (Atsani), remains active with sustained winds of 130 knots, and is located northeast of Andersen AFB, Guam. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what computer models are showing.
>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: High levels of natural uranium identified in 2 major U.S. aquifers – Nearly 2 million people throughout the Great Plains and California live above aquifer sites contaminated with natural uranium that is mobilized by human-contributed nitrate, according to a study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
The intensity of groundwater contamination via uranium (red) and nitrate (blue) in two major aquifers and other sites throughout the nation. UNL researcher Karrie Weber said the availability of uranium data pales compared to that of nitrate.
Data from roughly 275,000 groundwater samples in the High Plains and Central Valley aquifers show that many Americans live less than two-thirds of a mile from wells that often far exceed the uranium guideline set by the Environmental Protection Agency.
The study reports that 78 percent of the uranium-contaminated sites were linked to the presence of nitrate, a common groundwater contaminant that originates mainly from chemical fertilizers and animal waste. Nitrate mobilizes naturally occurring uranium through a series of bacterial and chemical reactions that oxidize the radioactive mineral, making it soluble in groundwater.
UNL researchers Karrie Weber and Jason Nolan found that the High Plains aquifer contains uranium concentrations up to 89 times the EPA standard and nitrate concentrations up to 189 times greater. The uranium and nitrate levels of the California-based Central Valley aquifer measured up to 180 and 34 times their respective EPA thresholds.
The authors published their findings in the August edition of the journal Environmental Science and Technology Letters. Their research was funded in part by the U.S. Geological Survey.
“It needs to be recognized that uranium is a widespread contaminant,” said Weber, assistant professor of biological, Earth and atmospheric sciences. “And we are creating this problem by producing a primary contaminant that leads to a secondary one.”
Prior research has suggested that prolonged drinking of uranium-contaminated water may lead, or make people more susceptible, to kidney damage and elevated blood pressure. According to Weber, peer-reviewed studies have also indicated that food crops can accumulate uranium when irrigated by water containing high concentrations of it.
The High Plains aquifer – the largest in the United States – provides drinking water and irrigation for an eight-state swath that stretches from South Dakota through Nebraska and into northern Texas. As California’s largest reservoir, the Central Valley aquifer sits beneath some of the state’s most fertile agricultural land. According to a 2012 census from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the two aquifers irrigate cropland that accounts for one-sixth of the annual revenue generated by U.S. agriculture.
Capt. Lee ,,, Lwr. Haiku .. Says:
Hi Glenn ,,, Thanks for posting the ,,, Forecast Models … They are very interesting to check out ….
For me and all of your readers ,,, Could you please give us all a little more info on what we are looking at ,,, Like does the Colors denote anything other than different models ,,, All of them have a 4 letter names ,,, which stands for ??? ,,, What is the difference that some models are looking at compared to others … What is the most Predictable ,,, Which one is the most unlikely … Were and Who is Generating these models ………………
Thanks Glenn ,,, Aloha Lee …
~~~ Hi Captain Lee, thanks for letting me know you find the weather models interesting. I suggest you do a google search on these models, asking these particular questions. I think you’ll find most of the information you are looking for. As for which are the most likely or unlikely, that’s a tough question to answer. Thanks for your good questions. Aloha, Glenn
Elo Says:
Enjoyed your reflections about your compulsion to report on changing weather. I suppose there’s a bit of town crier in many of us, and your consistency is endearing. Bless your folks for encouraging or at least not squelching your early efforts in this direction. You’ve brightened the day of many a reader, and given me a heads up not to hang laundry down here in Waihului no matter how clear and sunny the morning skies appear.
Elo, how nice of you to write your words, I’m surprised and delighted at the same time…that one of my readers, you, would write something so endearing. Yes, my parents, and especially my Mom supported my very early weather interest, and she continues to do that to this day. It’s not unusual for her to call me early in the morning and let me know I have a misspelling, or have used two words right next to each other, etc! I’m glad you enjoy my weather stuff, I appreciate that. Aloha, Glenn
mary Says:
Glenn
Love the stream of consciousness weather reports from your Kula location. So much better than the Oahu based weather on TV. Since I live below Kula in always sunny and dry Kihei it is a nice change to hear about rain and cool temps.
Mary
~~~ Hi Mary, I totally understand, sunny and warm down there, and cloudy and cooler with rain up here…at least today. I think some parts of Kihei got some rain yesterday, some places quite a bit I understand. Anyway, thanks for letting me know you enjoy my weather writing…I appreciate that! Aloha, Glenn
Eliza Says:
Lovely straight downpour happening in the 12pm hour in Upper Pukalani, Glenn! We missed all the rains yesterday. Guess they went elsewhere. Sorry the runoff hit Kihei and the ocean. Sigh
Have a lovely afternoon. — Eliza
~~~ Hi Eliza, nice to hear from you again. It’s pouring up here in Kula now too…at 1245pm…and foggy as can be! I’m glad you’re finally getting some water, hopefully you get some more. Oh my, silt in the ocean from heavy rains down in Kihei, not good for snorkeling visibilities. Have ah good one down there in Pukalani. Aloha, Glenn
Shirley Burns Says:
Hi Glenn, I like your self portrait. I live on Vancouver Island, namely Parksville and we are on Level 4 water restrictions, which means we can only water by hand and between certain times of the am and pm for 1 hour. Our lawns are brown and it appears that many of our trees will not survive. The leaves are all drying up. We now hear that our winter will be dry and warmer. I know in the past we have always gotten rain during the winter/spring and there were lots of complaints. Now I think if we got rain we would all be dancing in the streets. I just thought I would let you know what we are going through up here. So, Glenn push those rain clouds to us in the central part of the island.
~~~ Hi Shirley, thanks for letting me know you approve of my picture. As for the dry weather up your way, I totally understand your concern, as El Nino brings unusual conditions to the great Pacific Northwest. I always think of Vancouver Island as being green, cool and moist. I’m sorry to hear of the adverse effects on your vegetation…which brings up the saying: “what’s wrong with this picture!” At any rate, lets hope you get enough water this winter, and thank you so much for bringing us up to speed…in terms of weather in your area! Aloha, Glenn