Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

87 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
91 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu – the record high Thursday was 93…back in 1994
88 – 75  Molokai
90 – 75  Kahului, Maui – the record high Thursday was 92…back in 1953
90 – 80  Kailua Kona
86 – 75   Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

1.25  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.99  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.14  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.31  Kahakuloa, Maui
5.62  Waiakea Uka, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:

20  Poipu, Kauai – NE
35  Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
37  Molokai – NE
36  Lanai – NE
38  Kahoolawe – NE
27  Kapalua, Maui – NE 
33  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda is dissipating…and
has quickened her pace away from Hawaii

Here’s a real time wind profile of Hilda and our islands

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP102015W.gif
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda is moving by well south of the islands

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
 Hilda has weakened into a former tropical system now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda is located about 275 miles
south of Hilo, Hawaii…the clouds associated with Hilda
are bringing showers to the Big Island…locally heavy

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda’s low level cloud swirl is
over the ocean well to the south of the Big Island…
with thunderstorms to the northeast of the center…
and over parts of the Big Island too


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers are impacting the islands locally…especially
the Big Island – looping radar image

 

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island

Flash Flood Watch…for the Big Island – through 6am Saturday

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will continue as former tropical cyclone Hilda moves by to our south, although will falter again this weekend…making for very sultry conditions. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a moderately strong high pressure system to the north-northeast of the state. At the same time we see former tropical depression Hilda to the south of us. Our trades will range between gentle to moderately strong over the next day or two. We’ll find these trades becoming stronger locally…as Hilda moves by. Looking beyond Hilda’s influence, a trough of low pressure, passing near the islands later this weekend, will cause the trade winds to weaken and turn east-southeast into early next week, keeping very sultry weather in place over the state…in other words hot and humid!

We’ll see most of our passing showers congregating over the Big Island…although not exclusively. Now retiring Hilda will continue moving by south of the islands, which is bringing clouds and showers mostly to the Big Island. This precipitation will be heavy enough to cause localized flooding in places, even into Friday…on that easternmost island. The smaller islands, are a little too far north, to be on the receiving end of Hilda’s northern fringe of clouds, and will miss most of these showers. As ex-Hilda passes, we’ll find sultry weather following in her wake, with off and on passing showers…focused most intently along our windward sides. A low pressure trough passing near Hawaii Sunday into early next week, may bring another increase in showers to the state then, with even a few afternoon thunderstorms firing-off over the slopes during the afternoons for several days.

Post-Tropical Cyclone 10E (Hilda) will move by well south of the Hawaiian Islands.  The CPHC has issued its final advisory on former tropical depression Hilda, as it now has only 30 mph sustained winds. The system just couldn’t fight the shearing upper level winds anymore, and the top of the system decoupled from the bottom. This was the last straw for Hilda, although it was pretty exciting there for a while, back when she was a tropical storm, and we weren’t exactly sure what would happen. Here’s a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 540am Thursday morning, skies are partly cloudy. There may be some nice sunrise colors, as there are still some middle level clouds around. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 61.9 degrees, while it was 77 down at the Kahului airport and out in Hana, 64 over in Kaupa Gap…with a cooler 48 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time.

– Its now late afternoon, under partly sunny skies, and very warm temperatures. The trade winds are blowing, helping to moderate the heat some, although with all the humidity…it’s not an easy job. I was hoping for some rain today, although it all seems to be getting waylaid down on the Big Island. Looking at the radar images, and satellite imagery too, I don’t see much hope for showers anytime soon, although I’ve been known to be wrong before…that’s an understatement – smiling.

– Now at 810pm in the evening, here in Kula, it’s cloudy, with the very lightest flecks of mist falling. I stood out on my deck and lifted my face to it, it felt and smelled so nice. It seems strange, that after all the buildup, that this is all I’m getting. Actually, looking at the radar above, I do see some showers being carried in over the island on the trade wind breezes. Although, here in the lee side of the Haleakala Crater, out of the exposure of the trades, I’m getting a bare minimum…although I consider this better than nothing at all.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)   An area of low pressure centered about 350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined while the shower activity is also increasing. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form from this system over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s the NHC 5-day outlook

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Post-Tropical Cyclone 10E (Hilda) is dissipating, and is located about 330 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii. Here’s a satellite image with what little of Hilda there is left…is marked with a yellow X.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:


Tropical Depression 16W remains active with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 253 NM east-southeast of Andersen AFB. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what a computer model is showing.

Tropical Depression 17W is now active with sustained winds of 35 mph, and is located about 352 NM southwest of Wake Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image…and what computer models are showing.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  Toxic blue-green algae pose increasing threat to nation’s drinking, recreational water – A report concludes that blooms of toxic cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, are a poorly monitored and underappreciated risk to recreational and drinking water quality in the United States, and may increasingly pose a global health threat.

Several factors are contributing to the concern. Temperatures and carbon dioxide levels have risen, many rivers have been dammed worldwide, and wastewater nutrients or agricultural fertilizers in various situations can cause problems in rivers, lakes and reservoirs.

No testing for cyanobacteria is mandated by state or federal drinking water regulators, according to scientists from Oregon State University, nor is reporting required of disease outbreaks associated with algal blooms. But changes in climate and land use, and even increasing toxicity of the bacteria themselves, may force greater attention to this issue in the future, the researchers said.

An analysis outlining the broad scope of the problem has been published in Current Environmental Health Reports, by scientists from OSU and the University of North Carolina. The work was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Science Foundation.

The researchers also noted that problems with these toxins reach their peak during the heat of summer – as they are doing right now.

In 2015, drought and low snow pack throughout the West has led to large and toxic algal blooms earlier than in previous years. Toxic blooms have occurred for the second consecutive year in the Willamette River near Portland, Ore., and Upper Klamath Lake and most of the Klamath River have health warnings posted.

In a related marine concern, all along the West Coast many shellfish harvests are closed due to an ongoing event of domoic acid shellfish poisoning, producing what is thought to be the largest algal bloom in recorded history.

Cyanobacteria are ubiquitous around the world, and a 2007 national survey by the EPA found microcystin, a recognized liver toxin and potential liver carcinogen, in one out of every three lakes that were tested. Some of the toxic strains of cyanobacteria can also produce neurotoxins, while most can cause gastrointestinal illness and acute skin rashes.

Exposure to cyanobacteria is often fatal to pets or wildlife that drink contaminated water, and there have been rare cases of human fatalities. Last year the drinking water supply was temporarily shut down in Toledo, Ohio, a city of 500,000 people, due to cyanobacterial contamination of water taken from Lake Erie.

“The biggest health concern with cyanobacteria in sources of drinking water is that there’s very little regulatory oversight, and it remains unclear what level of monitoring is being voluntarily conducted by drinking water utilities,” said Tim Otten, a postdoctoral scholar in the OSU Department of Microbiology, and lead author on the study.

“At this point we only have toxicology data for a handful of these toxins, and even for those it remains unclear what are the effects of chronic, low-dose exposures over a lifetime,” Otten said. “We know some of the liver toxins such as microcystin are probable carcinogens, but we’ve really scratched only the surface with regard to understanding what the health effects may be for the bioactive metabolites produced by these organisms.”

Otten referred to the “precautionary principle” of protecting human health before damage is done.

“In my mind, these bacteria should be considered guilty until proven innocent, and in drinking water treated as potential pathogens,” he said. “I think cyanobacteria should be approached with significant caution, and deserve better monitoring and regulation.”

The issue is complex, because not all cyanobacteria are a problem, and in fact they play many positive roles as primary producers in oceans and fresh waters. They are among Earth’s oldest life forms, and more than two billion years ago helped produce much of the oxygen that made much other life on Earth possible, including humans. But various strains of them have likely always been toxic.

Scientists said a concern is that nutrient over-enrichment may select for the more toxic populations of these bacteria, creating a positive feedback loop that makes the problem even worse.

Researchers said in their analysis that modern water treatment does a reasonably good job of making drinking water safe, but the lack of required or widespread monitoring remains a problem. No one should drink untreated surface water that may be contaminated by cyanobacteria, and another serious concern is recreational exposure through swimming or other water sports.

Cyanobacteria-associated illnesses are not required to be reported under the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines, as most pathogens are. This makes accurate assessments of the incidence and severity of adverse health outcomes difficult to determine.

A recent study identified 11 freshwater lake, algal-bloom associated disease outbreaks, and 61 illnesses from 2009-10, based on reports from New York, Ohio, and Washington. The most common symptoms were skin rashes and gastroenteritis. There were no fatalities.

Many large, eutrophic lakes such as Lake Erie are plagued each year by algal blooms so massive that they are visible from outer space. Dogs have died from drinking contaminated water, and sea otter deaths in Monterey Bay have been attributed to them eating shellfish contaminated with microcystin that came from an inland lake.

Until better monitoring standards are in place, the researchers note, an unfortunate indicator of toxic algal bloom events will be illness or death among pets, livestock and wild animals that drink contaminated water.

One cannot tell visually if an algal bloom will be toxic or not, Otten said, and traditional microscopic cell counting and other approaches to assess risk are too slow for making time-sensitive, public health decisions. But the future holds promise. New DNA-based techniques can be used by experts to estimate health risks faster and cheaper than traditional methods.

Cyanobacterial toxins are not destroyed by boiling. However, individuals concerned about the safety of their drinking water may use regularly-changed point-of-use carbon filtration devices that are effective in reducing these health risks.

People should also develop an awareness of what cyanobacteria look like, in a natural setting appearing as green, paint-like surface scums. They should avoid water recreation on a lake or river that has these characteristics, researchers said.