Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the minimums Monday:

87 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu – the record high temperature Monday was 92…back in 1987
85 – 76  Molokai
91 – 77  Kahului, Maui – the record high temperature Monday was 96…back in 1951
90 – 80  Kailua Kona
88 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:

1.20  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.17  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.26  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.03  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.07  Haiku, Maui
0.23  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Monday evening:

21  Poipu, Kauai – NE
27  Kuaokala, Oahu – NNE
25  Molokai – NE
31  Lanai – NE
31  Kahoolawe – ENE
29  Maalaea Bay, Maui – N 
32  Kealakomo, Big Island – NNE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Hurricane Hilda continues to head in the direction
of the Hawaiian Islands…although there will be
a decrease in strength as Hilda gets closer

Here’s a real time wind profile of Hilda and our islands

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2015/graphics/EP102015W.gif
Hilda will clip the southern part of the Big Island…
and then move by south of the other islands

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Hilda will be the primary weather influence this week


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Hurricane Hilda is located about 290 miles east-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii…the clouds out ahead of Hilda will bring showers
to the Big Island and Maui…ahead of the storm itself

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/imagery/vis0-lalo.gif
Hurricane Hilda is a small compact system, having a classic
cloud signature for now, although we’ll begin seeing signs of
wind shear aloft…which will carry the upper part of this
system off towards the east-northeast, helping to push this
hurricane back down into the tropical storm stage – we
call this decoupling

 
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
A few showers over the ocean…impacting the
islands locally…with a marked increase on the
Big Island with time – looping radar image

 

Small Craft Advisory…for the windiest coastal and
channel waters Maui County and the Big Island

High Surf Advisory…east shores of Maui

High Surf Warning…east facing shores of the Big Island

Hurricane Warning…far southeast Hawaiian waters

Tropical Storm Watch…for Hawaii County – means
tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours

Hydrologic Outlook…Heavy Rains and Flash Flood
possible Thursday and Friday – Statewide

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds continue…although will gradually weaken into Wednesday. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a moderately strong high pressure system to the north of the state. At the same time we see the approach of hurricane Hilda to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Our trades will gradually weaken as Hilda gets closer to our area. As this storm gets within range, it’s counter-clockwise circulation will begin to influence our wind conditions here in the islands, first on the Big Island. Looking beyond Hilda, we should punch back into a fairly typical summertime trade wind weather pattern Sunday into next week.

We’ll see an occasional passing shower…along our windward coasts and slopes. The leeward sides will have far fewer showers, with pleasant, albeit hot summer weather prevailing during the days. The latest CPHC forecast track above, shows what will likely be tropical storm Hilda impacting the Big Island, which will bring an increase in clouds and showers to not only that island…but for other parts of the state as well. This weather event isn’t likely to be a major threat in terms of winds, although there’s a very good chance that it will bring rainfall to the state then. This precipitation will be heavy enough to cause localized flooding and mudslides…with even a few thunderstorms thrown into the mix.

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) continues to be taking aim on the Big Island…remaining at the category 1 level for the time being. Category 1 hurricanes have sustained winds that range between 74 and 95 mph. Hilda currently has sustained winds of 85 mph…with gusts to near 104 mph. Here’s a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing. It appears that this tropical cyclone, in whatever form that it will be later this week, will influence our local weather conditions the most…in the Wednesday night through Saturday time frame. It’s looking more and more like Hilda will strike the Big Island, as a weakening tropical storm. We’ll need to monitor the intensity and the path of this system…as it works its way towards us.

It’s too early to know the exact details, although looking at the situation from here, we’ll find rough surf along our southeast and east facing shores…as a first introduction to Hilda.  This rising hurricane swell will impact the eastern shores of both Maui and the Big Island, reaching 3-5 feet (6-10 foot wave faces) today…and then peak at 4-6 feet (8-12 foot faces) today. It will take until Thursday morning before tropical storm (39-73 mph) force winds winds arrive on the Big Island. The weakening trend of this storm will be a result of cooler sea surface temperatures below, and wind shear aloft, as it moves under the subtropical jet stream. As we all know however, these outlooks can and do change with time…please stay tuned for additional updates.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF…SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HILDA WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RAINFALL…HILDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 550am Monday morning, skies are mostly clear, although with the usual clouds banked-up against the windward sides. The leeward beaches around Kihei and Lahaina, are totally clear and sunny this morning! The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 57.1 degrees, while it was 79 down at the Kahului airport, 77 out in Hana…with a cooler 50 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time. / Now at 9am, low clouds are increasing across much of Maui, although there are still partly sunny areas.

– We’re into the early evening hours now, under partly cloudy skies for the most part. However, looking down towards the beaches, I can see clear blue skies, with no clouds whatsoever along the north shore at the time of this writing. The temperature here at my place in Kula, at 535pm, was 78 degrees, while at about the same time down in Kahului, it was 85, and 84 over in Kapalua…with 61 degrees up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater. 


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have increased since yesterday. However, significant development of this system is unlikely due to increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds while it moves westward at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

2.)   An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles south of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions should support gradual development of this system by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days..medium…50 percent

Here’s the NHC 5-day outlook

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:

Hurricane 10E (Hilda) remains active, with sustained winds of 85 mph, and is located about 290 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Hilda will probably drop down into the tropical storm level later today. Here’s the CPHC graphical track map, a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.

Here’s a satellite image, with Hilda described above

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: How the loss of Indonesian mangrove forests is linked to climate change – The loss of Indonesia’s coastal mangrove forests for shrimp farming is a huge source of carbon emissions, writes Prodita Sabarini. But equally, a policy flip to preserve and recreate mangroves offers a major climate win.

Mangroves are important because of their high rates of tree and plant growth, coupled with anaerobic, water-logged soils that slow decomposition, resulting in large, long-term carbon storage. Mangroves store three to five times more carbon than rainforest

Preventing the loss of Indonesian mangroves would help in the global fight against climate change, new research shows.

The study, published recently in Nature Climate Change, estimated that if Indonesia halts mangrove deforestation it could reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by between 10% to 31%.

That would be globally significant, since Indonesia is among the world’s highest contributors to global emissions – ranked 12th in the world in 2012, according to European Commission figures, behind others led by China, the US and the European Union, and just ahead of Australia.

The study also points to Indonesia’s large-scale shrimp industry, worth US$1.5 billion a year, as being a driver in mangrove deforestation. Many mangroves in Indonesia are being converted into shrimp ponds.

Deforestation is a major national and international challenge. As well as being one of Indonesia’s biggest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, many other studies have found that the loss of forests worldwide is a significant contributor to global greenhouse emissions.

Indonesian mangroves store a third of global coastal carbo

The research team, led by Daniel Murdiyarso from the Center for International Forestry Research, showed that mangroves in Indonesia stores 3.14 billion metric tons of carbon – or one-third of global coastal carbon stock.

The study explains that mangroves are important because of their high rates of tree and plant growth, coupled with anaerobic, water-logged soils that slow decomposition, resulting in large, long-term carbon storage. Mangroves store three to five times more carbon than rainforests.

But over the past three decades, Indonesia has lost 40% of its mangroves.

In 2005, Indonesia had 2.9 million hectares of mangroves, or almost a quarter of global mangrove ecosystems. That’s down from in 1980, when there were 4.2 million hectares of mangroves.

Indonesia has pledged to cut its greenhouse emissions to 26% by 2020.

According to Professor Murdiyarso, deforestation of Indonesian mangroves contributes to almost half of the global carbon emissions from the destruction of coastal ecosystems, which including marshes, mangroves and sea grasses. Every year, Indonesia loses around 52,000 hectares of mangroves.

The study is significant due to the “the magnitude of the [carbon] stock and the magnitude of emission rate”. Professor Murdiyarso said.

The secret is in mangraves’ deep roots

The research team assessed carbon stocks of 38 mangroves plots located in eight sites across the archipelago.

The research team measured the carbon storage in the leaves and roots of mangroves. “Mangroves have a very unique root system above the ground”, Professor Murdiyarso said.

The team also measured carbon storage in the soil by drilling two to three metres underground to collect samples for lab analysis.

The team used deforestation estimates with a stock-change approach to estimate emissions from land use, as well as mitigation potentials.

Tien Wahyuni, a researcher from the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry and Environment’s Dipterocarps Research Centre, said that Indonesian mangroves face various threats.

“Mangroves are being converted for shrimp and fish ponds. But there are other threats as well. In urban areas they are destroyed for land reclamation for residential areas”, she said.

She said the new study on mangroves was important. “Mangroves have a lot of biomass because their roots go deep into the ground.”