Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

86 – 72  Lihue, Kauai
92 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu – broke the record Friday, which was 90…back in 1979
8869  Molokai
93 – 71  Kahului, Maui – broke the record Friday, which was 92…back in 1949
87 – 77  Kailua Kona
87 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday evening:

0.34  Waialae, Kauailate
0.92  Kahana, Oahu
0.02  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Kahakuloa, Maui
0.09  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

10  Mana, Kauai – S
16  Kii,
Oahu – SE
23  Molokai – ENE
24  Lanai – NE

28  Kahoolawe – NE
09  Lipoa, Maui – SE

22  South Point, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Low pressure system far north of the state…with an associated
cold front just northwest of Kauai – while the eastern and central
Pacific have active tropical disturbances…
more information on them below 


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Mostly clear to partly cloudy over parts of the state…with the
fragmenting out of season
cold front northwest of Kauai – it looks dry to
the northeast and east of the state / cirrus clouds northwest of the state
  Looping version


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

A few showers…mostly over the nearby ocean,
along the windward sides locally too

looping radar image


~~~
Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Celebrating the 4th of July Independence Day holiday!


Our local trade winds are picking up now…and will gradually strengthen through the holiday weekend into next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems far to the west-northwest and northeast of the state. At the same time, there’s low pressure systems far to the north, along with the associated tail-end of a cold front near Kauai. Meanwhile, there are numerous low pressure cells along the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the south of Hawaii…moving westward. Our winds will start to blow with a bit more strength today, although with still some onshore daytime sea breezes, and offshore flowing land breezes during the night. This unusual weather situation is being caused by the low pressure system, and its nearby cold front, which is pushing a high pressure ridge over the state. We should see slowly rebounding trade winds going into the weekend however…remaining well established through next week. As a matter of fact, they may become stronger and gusty, as a tropical low pressure system may move by just to the south of Hawaii later next week.

We’ll see showers over the islands during the afternoon hours…locally. As the winds remain a bit soft yet, we’ll see a convective weather pattern continuing. This will bring afternoon upcountry clouds leading to localized showers, clearing back during the nights for the most part. However, as the trade winds return this weekend and beyond, there will be the usual off and on passing windward biased showers. There’s the chance that the northern fringe of a tropical system or two may bring an increase in showers next week. As a matter of fact, some of the computer models are suggesting locally heavy rain arriving over some parts of the state. I’ll be keeping an eye on these potential weather incidents…stay tuned. I’ll also be back with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

A couple of tropical disturbances remain active in the eastern Pacific…one or both of which may cross over into our central Pacific with time. The first of these areas of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 95E. I’m not overly concerned about this becoming a problem for the Hawaiian Islands at the moment, although we’ll keep an eye on it going forward. Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with the looping version. Here’s what one computer model is showing. The satellite image shows that this area has a low 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days, maintaining a low 30% chance over the next five days.

The second disturbance, marked by an orange X, is located closer to Mexico…and is being referred to as Invest 96E. This tropical disturbance has a medium 50% chance of developing over the next two days…increasing to a high 90% chance within five days. Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this second area. By the way, here’s what the National Hurricane Center suggests will be happening within 5-days for both of these disturbances. Interestingly enough, both the GFS and NAVGEM models are showing a tropical low moving close to or towards the state later next week. This isn’t a sure thing, being so far out into the future…although its enough to catch my eye as well.

Meanwhile, we have a tropical disturbance in our own Central Pacific now too. This particular area hasn’t taken on a Invest number yet. Nonetheless, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), there are showers and thunderstorms about 850 miles south-southeast of Hilo on the Big Island. Despite the fact that the general conditions in that area are limiting its development for now, I find it interesting that the general slow movement is towards the northwest. Here’s a satellite image of this area, marked with a yellow X…in addition to the area to the east-northeast of it (still in the eastern Pacific)…marked with an yellow X, that has low chance of developing.

Here’s a lovely video called The Beauty of Pollination – a TED Talk production…passed on to me by my neighbor Varsha 

Here on Maui…it’s 545am Friday morning, with mostly clear skies, with some cloudy areas too…and still moderately thick volcanic haze (vog) over the island as well.
The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 54.1 degrees, while it was 74 down at the Kahului airport, 77 out in Hana…and 45 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.

We’re well into the afternoon hours now, and its mostly cloudy up here in Kula, with sunnier conditions down near the beaches in most areas. Swinging around in my weather tower, I can still see lots of volcanic haze around. I can see, from the wind reports above, that the trade winds are trying to rebound today, and with a 35 mph gust from the northeast at Kahoolawe…it looks like they are making a gallant effort over our eastern islands in the chain.  As a matter of fact, the winds have my wind chimes going off here at my place. By the way, did you notice above that Kahului broke the all time high temperature record today, as it did yesterday! We reached 93 degrees, breaking the old record by one degree…which was back in 1949.

It’s early Friday evening, and the volcanic haze is still around, although as the trade winds get going soon, this should scour this long lasting haze away. The atmosphere to our east and northeast looks very dry, so we should have a dry night into Saturday morning. It looks like we’ll have a lovely 4th of July holiday weekend…albeit hotter than heck down by the beaches!


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
Caribbean Sea:
There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
Gulf of Mexico:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean


Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through the next five days

1.)  A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, with development not expected after the weekend. The low is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

2.)   A broad area of low pressure about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is producing extensive cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a satellite image showing both of these tropical disturbances

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Although some development will remain possible over the next day or so as it gradually tracks toward the west-northwest, conditions are expected to become less conducive for development Sunday night into Monday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent

2.)  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located around 850 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions will support some gradual development over the next couple of days as the area of low pressure remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent

Elsewhere, there are no tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>>
Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical storm 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 10W (Linfa) remains active in the Philippine Sea. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model are showing.

Tropical Storm 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GEFS computer model is showing.

>>>
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:
Extremely high coastal erosion in northern Alaska In a new study published today, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey found that the remote northern Alaska coast has some of the highest shoreline erosion rates in the world.Analyzing over half a century of shoreline change data, scientists found the pattern is extremely variable with most of the coast retreating at rates of more than 1 meter a year.

“Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast of Alaska is threatening Native Alaskan villages, sensitive ecosystems, energy and defense related infrastructure, and large tracts of Native Alaskan, State, and Federally managed land,” said Suzette Kimball, acting director of the USGS.

Scientists studied more than 1600 kilometers of the Alaskan coast between the U.S. Canadian border and Icy Cape and found the average rate of shoreline change, taking into account beaches that are both eroding and expanding, was -1.4 meters per year. Of those beaches eroding, the most extreme case exceeded 18.6 meters per year.

“This report provides invaluable objective data to help native communities, scientists and land managers understand natural changes and human impacts on the Alaskan coast,” said Ann Gibbs, USGS Geologist and lead author of the new report.

Coastlines change in response to a variety of factors, including changes in the amount of available sediment, storm impacts, sea-level rise and human activities. How much a coast erodes or expands in any given location is due to some combination of these factors, which vary from place to place.

“There is increasing need for this kind of comprehensive assessment in all coastal environments to guide managed response to sea-level rise and storm impacts,” said Dr. Bruce Richmond of the USGS. “It is very difficult to predict what may happen in the future without a solid understanding of what has happened in the past. Comprehensive regional studies such as this are an important tool to better understand coastal change. ”

Compared to other coastal areas of the U.S., where four or more historical shoreline data sets are available, generally back to the mid-1800s, shoreline data for the coast of Alaska are limited. The researchers used two historical data sources, from the 1940s and 2000s, such as maps and aerial photographs, as well as modern data like lidar, or “light detection and ranging,” to measure shoreline change at more than 26,567 locations.