Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:

88 – 79  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
90 – 69  Molokai
95 – 71  Kahului, Maui – tied the record for Tuesday…set back in 1949
88 – 78  Kailua Kona
87 – 72  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:

1.31  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.54  Paoamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.01  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.37  Hana AP, Maui
0.80  Puuanahulu, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:

16  Waimea Heights, Kauai – SE
20  Bellows, Oahu – NE
27  Molokai – ENE
27  Lanai – NE
35  Kahoolawe – NE
21  Kahului AP, Maui – NE
25  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
We see considerable thunderstorms in the deeper tropics…
along with Tropical Depression 08E well to our east-southeast

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0815.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/vis.jpg
Thunderstorms remain offshore to the southeast
and northwest of the islands – Looping version


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/vis.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy over the islands…a tropical
disturbance is southwest of Kauai
Looping version


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
A few showers over the islands
looping radar image

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will increase in strength through the rest of this week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find two near 1029 millibar high pressure systems far to the northwest and northeast of the state. At the same time, we have troughs of low pressure to the west. We may see another increase in trade wind speeds this weekend…as what will be retired tropical cyclone 08E moving by south of the state then.

As the trade winds pick up, we’ll see more comfortable conditions returning…compared to the hot and muggy conditions the last few days. There are no pronounced areas of wet weather on the horizon, at least towards the east and northeast, which the trade winds would carry to our windward sides. The next likely wetter than normal episode may arrive this coming weekend into early next week. A weak tropical system will be moving by to the south of the state then, and the northern fringe of this tropical moisture may spread up over the eastern side of the island chain then.

The deeper tropics remain active with thunderstorms all the way towards Mexico. I’ll be watching this elongated zone to Hawaii’s south, southeast, and east-southeast. There’s the good chance that a former tropical system, with its associated moisture, may get closer to our area this weekend. This area is Tropical Depression 08E, here’s a satellite image of its location, the looping version, and finally what the computer models are showing. At this point, it appears that whatever is left of what will be post-tropical cyclone 08E, will eventually pass south of the Big Island this weekend.

Meanwhile, there’s another area of disturbed weather brewing in the eastern Pacific…this one is being referred to as Invest 91E. It’s located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It currently has a medium 60% chance of developing over the next two days…although that chance rises to a high 90% chance over the next five days. Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with the looping version…and finally what the computer models are showing. If this disturbance develops further it would take on the title tropical depression 09E, and if it became a tropical storm…would take on the name Hilda. I’ll be keeping a close eye on both of these tropical systems through the rest of this week, into next week. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…It’s 550am Tuesday morning, skies are mostly clear, with a beautiful start to the day! As I look a little closer, I can see a little light haze in our air as well. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 56.9 degrees, while it was 71 down at the Kahului airport, 77 out in Hana, and 45 degrees up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at about the same time.

– It’s just now a few minutes past noon, under clear to partly cloudy skies. Here in Kula it’s partly cloudy, and less cloudy compared to about the same time yesterday and the day before. The beaches are way sunny, with very warm temperatures down near sea level. The rough surf along our leeward beaches the last several days, will gradually begin dropping in size Wednesday. / Now at 4pm, under clear to partly cloudy skies, there’s moderately thick volcanic haze that’s come up on the winds…from the Big Island volcanic vents.

– We’re into the early evening hours now, under variable amounts of clouds, most of which are over the slopes, leaving much of the beach areas clear and sunny. The volcanic haze is still around, and rather thick…although I suspect that it will be ventilated by the trade winds Wednesday.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Depression 08E remains active, and is located about 1420 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. TD 08E won’t strengthen anymore…here’s a NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image, and what the computer models are showing.

1.)   A low-latitude area of low pressure centered about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite data indicate that the circulation is becoming better defined, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with the looping version…and finally what the computer models are showing. If this disturbance develops further it would take on the title tropical depression 09E, and if it became a tropical storm…would take on the name Hilda. Some of the models bring this area, whatever is left of it, with its associated moisture into our island area early next week…stay tuned.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on tropical depression 08E, located approximately 1460 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Tropical depression 08E will crossing 140°W longitude into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility Thursday morning.

2.)  Scattered thunderstorms are associated with a low pressure system about 880 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Because of vertical wind shear over the system, only limited development is expected during the next two days as this low moves west at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…20 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>> North and South Indian Oceans:

Tropical cyclone 02B remains active, located about 64 NM south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…and a satellite image. 

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  Arctic ice growth doesn’t disprove climate change – New data shows that in 2013 Arctic ice actually grew rather than retreating as climate change models had predicted. Far from proving climate change is a myth or that ice retreat has ended, as skeptics are now claiming, this reveals something much more interesting about our warming climate.

The research, which was published this month in the science journal Nature, comes as a result of scientists embarking on the first wide scale analysis of the Arctic sea ice’s entire volume. The study, led by researchers at University College London, uses data collected by the European Space Agency’s Cryosat satellite which has enabled scientists to amass over 88 million measurements of the Arctic ice coverage. By analyzing those measurements, the researchers were able to come up with some interesting findings.

Most prominent among those discoveries was that Arctic sea ice actually grew by about a third in 2013 and continued to grow into 2014, partly compensating for the 14 percent drop incurred during the 2010-2012 period. This at first might seem surprising given that we are told that sea ice should be melting–if, that is, climate models are correct. Indeed, many anti-climate science news sites have made a lot out of this finding. The problem is, it isn’t the complete picture.

Highlighting this little factoid without then mentioning the six percent loss the data also showed for the full year of 2014 is incredibly misleading, but that’s precisely what websites like the Daily Mail appear to have done. What’s more, Arctic ice levels are nowhere near restored to the levels seen in the late 1970s when, estimates say, they were around 40 percent higher. Separate data from this year that was obviously not included in this study also appears to show that June 2015 figures saw the satellite record the third lowest Arctic ice volume since the satellite launched in 2010.

Regardless of this though, the question does remain: Why did this small recovery happen? 

Regardless of this though, the question does remain: Why did this small recovery happen? To put it simply, it appears that 2013 had a colder than average summer and this allowed an albeit modest resurgence of ice, basically because there were fewer warm days for the ice to actually melt. While bearing in mind that this didn’t totally last into 2014 but did at least persist so as to be significant, what does this tell us about the Arctic sea ice? The researchers say it demonstrates that the Arctic ice might rely more heavily on summer temperatures than winter ones. As such, climbing global temperatures would appear to be even more concerning because as the gap between winter and summer temperatures widen, the chance for the ice to renew itself would appear to dwindle.

Yet, on the more positive side, the researchers also believe that this data suggests the Arctic sea ice is more robust than had previously been thought, and that it may be capable of regenerating much more quickly than we’d estimated–but facilitating that would require action from us.

You see Arctic sea ice as dwindling and in decline, but then there is a cold year and you get some of the ice back,” said lead author Rachel Tilling. “It shows there is hope for Arctic sea ice, if you can turn the clock back to colder temperatures, which would need huge reductions in carbon emissions.”

So it all comes down to one thing: world governments taking action at the Paris climate talks this December. In the meantime, overall figures continue to show that there is a consistent downward trend in the Arctic ice volume, regardless of what climate skeptics want us to believe when they cherry pick data.