Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the minimums Thursday:

86 – 70  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 74  Honolulu, Oahu
8969  Molokai
93 – 70  Kahului, Maui – broke the record Thursday, which was 91…back in 1951
87 – 80  Kailua Kona
87 – 74  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:

0.03  Anahola, Kauai
0.01  Schofield East, Oahu
0.00  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.40  Mountain View, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of early Thursday evening:

13  Puu Opae, Kauai – SSW
14  Kuaokala,
Oahu – NNW
18  Molokai – ESE
10  Lanai – SW

24  Kahoolawe – SE
18  Maalaea Bay, Maui -SW

25  Upolu AP, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Low pressure system north of the state, with its cold front
just northwest of Kauai
to see a cold front so close to
Hawaii
during the summer months…is extremely rare!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Mostly clear with clouds over some parts of the state…with
the fragmenting out of season
cold front close to Kauai,
and high cirrus to the southwest
Looping version


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

Some showers…mostly over the nearby ocean, a few
quite generous over the ocean to the southwest of
Maui County
looping radar image


~~~
Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~


The just past July Full Moon…will still be
very bright tonight!



Our local winds will remain lighter than normal into Friday…and then gradually head back towards normal through the holiday weekend into next week . Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find moderately strong high pressure systems far to the northwest and northeast of the state. At the same time, there’s a low pressure system to the north, along with its fragmenting cold front near Kauai. Our winds will remain on the softer side of normal, with onshore daytime sea breezes, and offshore flowing land breezes during the night. This unusual weather situation is being caused by the relatively close proximity of the low pressure system, and its cold front, which is pushing high pressure ridges close to the state. We should see slowly rebounding trade winds going into the weekend…remaining well established through next week. As a matter of fact, they may become stronger and gusty, as a low pressure system might move by to the south of Hawaii during the middle of next week. 

We’ll see showers over the islands during the afternoon hours…locally. As the winds remain rather soft for the time being, we’ll see a convective weather pattern continuing. This will bring afternoon upcountry clouds leading to localized showers, clearing back during the nights for the most part. As the trade winds gradually return into the weekend and beyond, there will be the usual off and on passing windward biased showers. There’s the chance that the northern fringe of a tropical system may bring an increase in showers during the middle of next week. As a matter of fact, some of the computer models are suggesting rain arriving over some parts of the state next Wednesday continuing into Friday. I’ll be keeping an eye on this potential weather incident…stay tuned. I’ll also be back with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

A new tropical disturbance is active in the eastern Pacific…and may cross over into our central Pacific before too long. This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 95E. I am not concerned about this becoming a problem for the Hawaiian Islands, although thought you’d want to know about it anyway. Here’s a satellite image of this area, along with the looping version. Here’s what the global hurricane models are showing, in addition to another view with the GEPS model…showing the Hawaiian Islands in the picture. This satellite image, shows that this area has a low 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days, increasing to a medium 60% chance over the next five days. The other yellow X towards Mexico is another area of disturbed weather, which has a low 0% chance of developing over the next two days…increasing to 30% within five days. By the way, here’s what the National Hurricane Center suggests will be happening in 5-days.

Here on Maui…it’s 535am Thursday morning, with mostly clear skies, and still light to almost medium thick volcanic haze (vog) over the island as well.
The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 55.9 degrees, while it was 72 down at the Kahului airport, 77 out in Hana…and 46 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time. / Now at 1030am, it’s clouding up rather quickly, at least up here on the mountain. Looking down into the central valley, it looks like the volcanic haze level is now up to medium thick…at least.

We’re into the mid-afternoon now, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, along with rather thick volcanic haze. There’s been a few flecks of moisture falling, falling short of even being called a mist though. While the temperature hit 93 today down in Kahului, breaking the all time high temperature record for today…it has remained in the middle 70’s upcountry here in Kula. I much prefer these cooler temperatures, although the vog situation is getting a little out of hand. It’s so unusual to have volcanic haze in the summer, when the trade winds should be briskly blowing!

It’s fun to highlight the unusual weather features that are occurring across our area now. In sum, we have a cold front just 100 miles northwest of Kauai, we have Kona winds blowing across most of the state, we have thick vog over Maui County and other parts of the state, and we have a rising northwest swell. These would all fit well into the winter season, say January or February, although, now that we’re into the July month of summer, all I can say is…this is crazy! Well, I shouldn’t forget to add that the high temperature was a record breaking 93 degrees today in Kahului…so it’s not all like winter after all. I’m totally fascinated, and wonder what else will be different through the rest of this year, in terms of what this very strong El Nino condition will do for us here in Hawaii…and across the rest of the world too!


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
Caribbean Sea:
There are no active tropical cyclones

>>>
Gulf of Mexico:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean


Here’s the link to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through the next five days

1.)   Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable early next week. The low is expected to move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

2.)   An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level conditions are forecast to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

Here’s a satellite image showing both of these tropical disturbances

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>>
Central Pacific
: There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Gradual development of this area of disturbed weather will remain possible over the next couple of days as environmental conditions become more conducive during its slow progression to the west-northwest.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS…LOW…30 PERCENT

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>>
Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical storm 09W (Chan-hom) remains active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM computer models are showing.

Tropical Storm 10W (Linfa) remains active in the Philippine Sea. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model are showing.

Tropical Depression 11W is now active in the northwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GEFS computer model is showing.

>>>
South Pacific Ocean:

Tropical cyclone 25P (Raquel) remains active in the southwest Pacific. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the GFS and NAVGEM computer models are showing.

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: 
Extremely high coastal erosion in northern Alaska – In a new study published today, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey found that the remote northern Alaska coast has some of the highest shoreline erosion rates in the world.Analyzing over half a century of shoreline change data, scientists found the pattern is extremely variable with most of the coast retreating at rates of more than 1 meter a year.  

“Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast of Alaska is threatening Native Alaskan villages, sensitive ecosystems, energy and defense related infrastructure, and large tracts of Native Alaskan, State, and Federally managed land,” said Suzette Kimball, acting director of the USGS.

Scientists studied more than 1600 kilometers of the Alaskan coast between the U.S. Canadian border and Icy Cape and found the average rate of shoreline change, taking into account beaches that are both eroding and expanding, was -1.4 meters per year. Of those beaches eroding, the most extreme case exceeded 18.6 meters per year.

“This report provides invaluable objective data to help native communities, scientists and land managers understand natural changes and human impacts on the Alaskan coast,” said Ann Gibbs, USGS Geologist and lead author of the new report.

Coastlines change in response to a variety of factors, including changes in the amount of available sediment, storm impacts, sea-level rise and human activities. How much a coast erodes or expands in any given location is due to some combination of these factors, which vary from place to place.

“There is increasing need for this kind of comprehensive assessment in all coastal environments to guide managed response to sea-level rise and storm impacts,” said Dr. Bruce Richmond of the USGS. “It is very difficult to predict what may happen in the future without a solid understanding of what has happened in the past. Comprehensive regional studies such as this are an important tool to better understand coastal change. ”

Compared to other coastal areas of the U.S., where four or more historical shoreline data sets are available, generally back to the mid-1800s, shoreline data for the coast of Alaska are limited. The researchers used two historical data sources, from the 1940s and 2000s, such as maps and aerial photographs, as well as modern data like lidar, or “light detection and ranging,” to measure shoreline change at more than 26,567 locations.