Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 14-15, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the minimums Tuesday:

85 – 76  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu – record high for Tuesday was 92…back in 1995
86 – 74  Molokai
90 – 76  Kahului, Maui – record high for Tuesday was 92…back in 1950
88 – 78  Kailua Kona
87 – 71  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Tuesday evening:

0.76  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.91  Schofield East, Oahu
0.19  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.19  Hana AP, Maui
0.21  Saddle Quarry, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:

20  Poipu, Kauai – NE
27  Kuaokala, Oahu – ENE
28  Molokai – NE
25  Lanai – NE
29  Kahoolawe – NE
30  Kahului AP, Maui – NE
33  Puu Mali, Big Island – NE

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Nothing of note spinning here in the central Pacific – there
is however tropical storm Enrique well to our east, and
hurricane Dolores close to Mexico – both in the eastern Pacific
more information below

There’s the leading edge of a low cloud area that
decoupled from Enrique to our east – expected to
arrive Thursday – Looping version

Scattered low clouds in all directions…bringing
a few showers to our windward sides locally 
Looping version

Showers mostly over the ocean…a few arriving
over the islands locally, locally quite generous
looping radar image

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Gusty trade winds, which will weaken a notch by mid-week…rebounding some during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a near 1031 millibar high pressure system to the north-northeast of the state…moving east. Meanwhile, there are tropical systems/troughs west, southwest, south and east of Hawaii…moving more or less westward. The trade winds are expected to ease up some Wednesday for a few days…before trying to accelerate again during the weekend into next week. Climatology would strongly suggest that the trade winds remain active this time of year.

We’ll find just normal amounts of showers along our windward sides…generally dry leeward sides into Thursday. We should see fairly dry weather now through Thursday afternoon, with a few windward biased showers at times. In addition, we could find a few random upcountry showers during the afternoon hours locally Wednesday into Thursday. The computer models continue to suggest we’ll see an increase in tropical showers later Thursday into Saturday morning…stay tuned. The models go on to point out drier weather later Saturday into early next week. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Tuesday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui…it’s 540am Tuesday morning, with partly cloudy conditions over the the island…consisting mostly of streaky high cirrus clouds. These icy clouds lit up a most beautiful pink color at sunrise!. The air temperature here in Kula, at my upcountry weather tower was 57.4 degrees, while it was 77 down at the Kahului airport, 75 out in Hana…and 48 up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater at near the same time.

It’s now almost 1pm here in Kula, with an air temperature of 78.3 degrees. It’s partly to mostly cloudy over many parts of the island, although it looks sunny in the central valley…and clear to partly cloudy over the leeward beaches. The temperature down in Kahului at the same time was 89 degrees, while it was 86 in Kapalua, and 84 in Hana…with a cooler 55 degrees up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater. It’s a typical summer day, other than the fact that it’s this Maui weatherman’s birthday.

World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 05E (Dolores) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, located 310 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Here’s a graphical track map of this strengthening system.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this strengthening hurricane…along with a satellite image

Tropical Storm 06E (Enrique) remains active in the eastern Pacific Ocean, located 1505 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Here’s a graphical track map of system.

Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this weakening tropical storm…along with a satellite image

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

1.)  A remnant low associated with former tropical storm Iune was located about 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop with this feature, however, remain disorganized. Environmental conditions will likely remain unfavorable for further development over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low…10 percent

Here’s a satellite image of this area of disturbed weather

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Typhoon 11W (Nangka) remains active in the northwest Pacific…located about 375 NM south-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image. Here’s what the computer model is showing.

Typhoon 1C (Halola) remains active…located about 149 NM southeast of Wake Island. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this strengthening tropical cyclone. Here’s what the Navy computer model is showing.

Here’s the JTWC graphical track map, along with a satellite image of this gradually strengthening tropical cyclone.

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting:  Winter is coming: Earth awaits ‘mini ice age’ in 15 years, solar cycle study suggests – Earth is facing the prospect of a ‘mini ice age’ this century, with our sun’s activity projected to fall 60 percent in the 2030s, British astrophysicists say, based on the results of new research that they claim allows exact predictions of solar cycles

Our planet is just 15 years from a new ‘mini ice age’ that could cause extremely cold winters characterized by the freezing of normally ice-free rivers as well as by year-round snow fields in areas that have never witnessed such climate conditions before, a group of astrophysicists claim.

The scientists could draw such a conclusion based on a new model of the sun’s activity that reportedly enables the researchers to make “extremely accurate predictions” of changes in solar activity.

Although, the fact that the sun’s activity varies within a 10-12 year long cycles was first discovered almost two centuries ago, in 1843, all the previously existing explanatory models failed to fully explain the fluctuations with each cycle as well as between the cycles.

Until now, the astrophysicists thought that the variations of the solar activity depended on the dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep inside the sun.

The latest study conducted by a research team from Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, and led by Professor Valentina Zharkova demonstrated that the variations in the Sun’s activity are caused by two dynamo processes – one deep in the convection zone of the sun and one near its surface.

The research team analyzed three solar activity cycles that cover the period from 1976 to 2008 studying magnetic field activity of the sun during this time by using a technique called principal component analysis of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California.

The scientists discovered magnetic waves in two different layers of the Solar interior that “fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun.”

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time,” said Professor Zharkova.

Later, they also compared their findings concerning the intensity of the Sun’s activity with each year’s data on the average number of sunspots – a strong indicator of solar activity.

As a result, the team managed to create a very accurate model of predicting the solar activity fluctuations.

“Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 percent,” said Zharkova.

The study findings were presented at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno on July 9, and published in the Royal Astronomical Society papers.

The model demonstrates that solar activity will fall by 60 percent by 2030 as the magnetic waves inside the Sun will become increasingly more de-synchronized during the next two cycles, especially during cycle 26, which covers the decade between 2030 and 2040.

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other,” Professor Zharkova said.

“Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago,” she added.

The Maunder minimum is a name of a period between 1645 and 1715 characterized by prolonged low solar activity as well as by extremely cold winters in Europe and North America as it also correlates with a climatic period between 1550 and 1850 called the ‘Little Ice Age.’