Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday…along with the minimums Saturday:

83 – 68  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 70  Honolulu, Oahu – 90 ties the hottest day ever on this date…back in 2005
8471  Molokai AP
86 – 65  Kahului, Maui
83 – 73  Kailua Kona
86 – 69  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:


0.05  Anahola, Kauai
0.03  Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.10  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.01  Kula 1, Maui
2.36  Kawainui Stream, Big Island


The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:


18  Waimea Heights, Kauai – NE
24  Kuaokala,
Oahu – NNE
20  Molokai – NE
24  Lanai – NE

23  Kahoolawe – ENE
20  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NW

23  Kealakomo, Big Island – ENE


Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.



Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
Upper level cirrus clouds coming up from the southwest – with
Tropical Storm Carlos spinning just south of Acapulco, Mexico


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy…with bright white, high cirrus clouds
Oahu to the Big Island –
Looping version of this image


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

Showers falling here and there…although sparse in general


Here’s the looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands


~~~
Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



The trade winds will be light to moderately strong through Monday…then pick up Tuesday onwards. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a large and strong high pressure system far to the north of the state. At the same time, we have surface troughs of low pressure to our north and northwest, which are limiting our trade wind speeds for the time being. The trades will continue through Monday, although be lighter than normal for this time of year. The models are suggesting that stronger trade winds will fill back into the state…as we push into the new week.

Trade wind weather conditions will continue…mixed with a modified convective pattern. The windward sides will see a few showers…which will get carried our way on the trade wind flow. The atmosphere will remain somewhat unstable, which may enhance any showers that fall at times. Therefore, there’s the chance of a few localized heavy showers, especially over our windward sides tonight into Sunday morning, and then again over the interior sections Sunday afternoon. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui...early Saturday morning near sunrise, skies are mostly clear, with some thin high cirrus clouds…which lit up into a nice colorful sunrise. The air temperature here in upcountry Kula at 545am was 51.4 degrees, 67 down at the Kahului airport, 68 at the Hana airport…and 39 degrees atop the Haleakala Crater.
It’s a beautiful morning, with some sugar cane smoke in the central valley again this morning.

It’s now into the early evening hours, with lots of clouds around, as there have been all day. However, the majority of them are of the high cirrus variety. We should see some color at sunset, similar to how we started off our day at sunrise. We may see another nice sunrise Sunday morning as well.


El Nino
There’s been lots of news pointing towards El Nino conditions here in the Pacific Ocean lately. As a matter of fact, the El Nino developing in the Pacific this year keeps sending signs reminiscent of the most severe event in 1997-98.

The 2015 El Nino, the first since 2010, continues to develop, and models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely. Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above El Nino thresholds for the remainder of the year.

In today’s update, NOAA is calling for a greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through the northern fall of 2015…and an 85% chance it will last through the winter of 2015-16.

El Nino related weather patterns can make Asia extremely hot as temperatures rise, hurting crops from rice to coffee and palm oil, while greatly limiting the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and bringing cooler, wetter summers to the United States.


El Nino appears to have played a role in record-smashing rainfall over the south-central states last month, the main factor behind the single wettest month in U.S. history. The main tendency in U.S. weather during El Nino summers, albeit a weak one, is for above-average precipitation. On average, El Nino’s impacts on U.S. weather are much stronger in winter than in summer.


In particular, the southwestern states may continue to see the effects of a Northeast Pacific hurricane season amped up by El Nino. Already, remnant moisture from former Hurricanes Andres and Blanca has led to periods of unusually high amounts of water vapor across the Southwest…and bursts of rainfall that are uncommon in late spring for places like Phoenix, AZ.


A sea surface temperature map for the week through June 13th clearly shows the pattern in the Pacific, with a warm tongue extending from the South American coastline, well south of Hawaii…and on across the International Dateline.


Here in the Central Pacific, El Nino typically influences Hawaii in the following ways:


1.) More Active Hurricane Seasons

2.) Four Most Active Seasons have been 1982, 1992, 1994, and 1997 – which have all been El Nino years
3.) Greater Chance of Late Season Hurricane Activity
4.) Drought Conditions during the Winter Months
5.) Numerous High Surf Events during the fall, winter…and early spring months


The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecasters predict an above normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year, and are expecting 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to affect the region. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones. That number includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.


This outlook is based upon the expectation of El Nino continuing and possibly strengthening as the hurricane season progresses. El Niño can decrease the wind shear over the tropical Central Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. El Nino also favors more westward tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific. This combination typically leads to an above normal Central Pacific hurricane season.


This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the Central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether or how many…of these systems will affect Hawaii.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


>>>
Atlantic Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones



A sharp trough of surface low pressure across the Yucatan Peninsula, in combination with an upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms over portions of Guatemala, Belize, the Yucatan, and adjacent waters. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for some development over the next day or two as the system moves northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Heavy rains are expected to continue over these areas today, along with winds to near gale force over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


>>> Gulf of Mexico:
There are no active tropical cyclones


Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the areas above

 

>>> Eastern Pacific:


Tropical Storm 03E (Carlos)
remains active about 75 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, sustained winds are 70 mph, moving northwest at 2 mph. Here’s a NHC graphical track map, a looping satellite image…and what the hurricane models are showing


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area today, and Acapulco recently reported a gust to 43 mph. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)


>>> Central Pacific
: There are no active tropical cyclones


No tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


>>>
Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones


>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting: 
How old is the Grand Canyon? – The age of the Grand Canyon (USA) has been studied for years, with recent technological advances facilitating new attempts to determine when erosion of this iconic canyon began. The result is sometimes conflicting ages based on different types of data; most data support the notion that the canyon began to erode to its current form about six million years ago. Then even newer, “high-tech,” data became available and questions were again raised about whether the western end of the canyon could be older.


Two numbers are used as general time markers for these alternate hypotheses. The first suggests that the canyon may have started incising 17 million years ago. The second suggests that the canyon may have looked largely as it does today 70 million years ago. The time contrast between these hypotheses is striking, and any accurate concept of the canyon would have to be consistent with all observations.


Other researchers have studied the Grand Wash Fault, which truncates the western Grand Canyon. The fault runs north to south, nearly perpendicular to the Canyon. The fault slides in such a way that the west side of the fracture moves down relative to the east side, leaving a cliff face called the Grand Wash Cliffs. This slip, called “normal slip,” has led to the opening of a valley called the Grand Wash trough along the east end of Lake Meade. Erosion of hill slopes and canyons in the Grand Wash Cliffs is driven by the fault movement exposing the rock at the surface. These hill slopes and canyons are similar to the Colorado River’s tributaries in Grand Canyon, except hills and side streams are all steeper in Grand Canyon.


This comparison is useful because the Grand Wash fault has been studied extensively, and other scientists have shown that the fault completed most of its sliding between 18 and 12 million years ago. The rocks and climate in both regions are similar, so the difference in land form shape is most likely due to when the landforms started eroding.


In this new article for Geosphere, Andrew Darling and Kelin Whipple focus on the western Grand Canyon, west of the Hurricane fault. Their data show that the Grand Canyon must be younger than the fault slip that occurred 18 to 12 million years ago. Comparing their data to other datasets suggests that the notion that the canyon starting eroding around six million years ago is still the best scientific idea for the age of the Grand Canyon.