Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha Paragraphs / June 12-13, 2015

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

83 – 70  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 71  Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 70  Molokai AP
85 – 64  Kahului, Maui
86 – 75  Kailua Kona
84 – 66  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of  Friday evening:

0.13  Lihue AP, Kauai
0.34  Waipio, Oahu
0.00  Kamalo, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.06  Kula 1, Maui
0.40  Lower Kahuku, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:

16  Poipu, Kauai – NE
27  Kuaokala, Oahu – N
24  Molokai – NE
24  Lanai – NE
25  Kahoolawe – ENE
22  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE
27  Kealakomo, Big Island -ENE 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Upper level low pressure system to our northeast – with
Hurricane Carlos spinning just south of Acapulco, Mexico

Clear to partly cloudy…with some bright white, high cirrus clouds
now in the picture – Looping version of this image

A few showers falling here and there…mostly offshore
and over the interior sections of the islands

Here’s the looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

The trade winds will become lighter through this weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems far to the north of the state. At the same time, we have surface troughs of low pressure to our northeast and northwest. The trade winds will continue, although slow down considerably through this weekend, as one of these troughs gets closer.  The models are suggesting that stronger trade winds will fill back into the state…as we push into the first part of the new week ahead.

Trade wind weather pattern will give way to a more convective pattern…through this weekend. The windward sides will see a few showers…which will get carried our way on the weakening trade wind flow. The atmosphere be a little unstable, although there’s distinct lack of moisture in most areas, thus convective showers should remain rather modest for the most part…with a few exceptions. As the winds back-off over the next several days, we’ll see afternoon clouds, with a few showers developing over our leeward slopes. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui...early Friday morning near sunrise, skies are mostly clear, with a few clouds over the nearby ocean, and around the West Maui Mountains. The air temperature here in upcountry Kula at 540am was 49.6 degrees, 64 down at the Kahului airport, 66 at the Hana airport…and 39 degrees atop the Haleakala Crater. It’s a beautiful morning, with the only slight caveat being the minor sugar cane smoke in the central valley.

– We’re into the middle of the afternoon at 3pm, under clear to partly cloudy skies for the most part, The air temperature up here in Kula was 79.7F, 84 down at the Kahului AP and Kapalua, 81 at the Hana AP…and a cooler 50 degrees up at the summit of the Haleakala Crater.

– Ah, it’s Friday evening, and we have the weekend upon us almost. My friend Jeff has invited me up to his place, along with some of the other regular suspects that we see these films with most Friday evenings. The weather is near perfect, and with those high cirrus now showing up to the southwest, we might just be able to see a little color at sunset.

El Nino – There’s been lots of news pointing towards El Nino conditions here in the Pacific Ocean lately. As a matter of fact, the El Nino developing in the Pacific this year keeps sending signs reminiscent of the most severe event in 1997-98.

The 2015 El Nino, the first since 2010, continues to develop, and models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely. Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain above El Nino thresholds for the remainder of the year.

In today’s update, NOAA is calling for a greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through the northern fall of 2015…and an 85% chance it will last through the winter of 2015-16.

El Nino related weather patterns can make Asia extremely hot as temperatures rise, hurting crops from rice to coffee and palm oil, while greatly limiting the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and bringing cooler, wetter summers to the United States.

El Nino appears to have played a role in record-smashing rainfall over the south-central states last month, the main factor behind the single wettest month in U.S. history. The main tendency in U.S. weather during El Nino summers, albeit a weak one, is for above-average precipitation. On average, El Nino’s impacts on U.S. weather are much stronger in winter than in summer.

In particular, the southwestern states may continue to see the effects of a Northeast Pacific hurricane season amped up by El Nino. Already, remnant moisture from former Hurricanes Andres and Blanca has led to periods of unusually high amounts of water vapor across the Southwest…and bursts of rainfall that are uncommon in late spring for places like Phoenix, AZ.

A sea surface temperature map for the week through June 12th clearly shows the pattern in the Pacific, with a warm tongue extending from the South American coastline, well south of Hawaii…and on across the International Dateline.

Here in the Central Pacific, El Nino typically influences Hawaii in the following ways:

1.)  More Active Hurricane Seasons
2.)  Four Most Active Seasons have been 1982, 1992, 1994, and 1997 – which have all been El Nino years
3.)  Greater Chance of Late Season Hurricane Activity
4.)  Drought Conditions during the Winter Months
5.)  Numerous High Surf Events during the fall, winter…and early spring months

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) forecasters predict an above normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year, and are expecting 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to affect the region. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones. That number includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas in association with a trough
of low pressure that has recently formed at the surface. This system
is expected to move across the Yucatan peninsula later today and
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late tomorrow. Environmental
conditions could support slow development of this system during the
next few days while it moves generally northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent 

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days over the areas above

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 03E (Carlos) remains active about 140 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, sustained winds are 75 mph, moving northwest at 2 mph. Here’s a NHC graphical track map, a looping satellite image…and what the hurricane models are showing

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches.  The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected through the next two days

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Interesting: Canadian wildfire smoke transported to US – Canada has already had its share of wildfires this season, and the smoke from these wildfires is slowly drifting south over the United States’ Midwest. The drifting smoke can be seen in this Terra satellite image over Lake Michigan, as well as parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio.

The smoke released by any type of fire (forest, brush, crop, structure, tires, waste or wood burning) is a mixture of particles and chemicals produced by incomplete burning of carbon-containing materials. All smoke contains carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and particulate matter (PM or soot). Smoke can contain many different chemicals, including aldehydes, acid gases, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), benzene, toluene, styrene, metals and dioxins. The type and amount of particles and chemicals in smoke varies depending on what is burning, how much oxygen is available, and the burn temperature. Exposure to any type of smoke should be avoided if possible, but especially by those with respiratory issues, the elderly, and children.