Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the minimums Friday:

83 – 67  Lihue, Kauai
84 – 70  Honolulu, Oahu
8461  Molokai AP
85 – 63  Kahului, Maui
83 – 73  Kailua Kona
83 – 64  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Friday evening:


2.36  Kilohana, Kauai
3.29  Punaluu Pump, Oahu
0.03  Kamalo, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.16  Kaupo Gap, Maui
0.63  Lower Kahuku, Big Island


The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Friday evening:


17  Mana, Kauai – NNW
22  Kalaeloa,
Oahu – NNE
12  Molokai – NNE
18  Lanai – NW

16  Kahoolawe – SW
16  Maalaea Bay, Maui – NNE

17  Puu Mali, Big Island – WNW


Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.



Aloha Paragraphs

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif
We see a low pressure system to the northeast…with its associated
late season cold front moving down through the state


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Partly to mostly cloudy, with the cold front passing through
the central islands –
looping version of this photo


http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

Showers are falling over the nearby ocean…spreading over
the islands locally – some locally heavy


Here’s the looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands

Small Craft Advisory…coastal waters around Kauai

Wind Advisory…Big Island summits – west 30-45 mph
with gusts over 55 mph


~~~
Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Strengthening north to northeast breezes…through the weekend into next week
. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find high pressure systems located far to the northwest and northeast of the state, along with a cold front moving across the state. The forecast has light and variable winds ahead of the front, with north to northeasterly winds in its wake…through the weekend into the early part of the new week ahead. These rather unusual breezes, for this time of the year at least, will keep our air temperatures slightly cooler than normal. A more typical trade wind weather pattern will arrive around the middle of the new week onwards.

A late season cold front is moving through the state…bringing showers mostly to the windward sides. It arrived over Kauai earlier today, reaching Oahu and Maui County tonight, and then should dissipate over the Big Island at some point Saturday. As the winds come in from the north to northeast with the frontal passage, we’ll see the front’s showers deposited mostly along the north and northeast facing coasts and slopes. These areas will pick up a few additional passing showers through the weekend, and on into the early part of the new week. I’ll be back with more updates on all of the above, I hope you have a great Friday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Here on Maui...early Friday morning before sunrise, skies are mostly cloud free. The air temperature here in Kula at 535am was 55.2 degrees, 65 at the Kahului AP, 63 degree reading out in Hana, and 41 degrees at the Haleakala Crater.

It’s now mid-afternoon at 3pm, and clouds are increasing steadily. At the same time, the winds have picked up from the north, bringing a slight chill…compared to earlier in the day.

We’ve pushed into the early evening now, under partly cloudy skies in general. The north to northeasterly winds have already arrived here on Maui, out ahead of the approaching cold front. / There have been various flood advisories required, the most recent one was over windward Maui at the time of this writing.

Friday Evening Film:  There were several new films opening here in Maui, several of which look like they will be fun to see. I went to see the one called Far From the Madding Crowd, starring Cary Mulligan, Tom Sturridge, Michael Sheen, Matthias Schoenaerts, Juno Temple, and Jessica Barden…among many others. The synopsis: based on the literary classic by Thomas Hardy, this is a story of independent, beautiful and headstrong Bathsheba Everdene (Carey Mulligan), who attracts three very different suitors: Gabriel Oak (Matthias Schoenaerts), a sheep farmer, captivated by her fetching willfulness; Frank Troy (Tom Sturridge), a handsome and reckless Sergeant; and William Boldwood (Michael Sheen), a prosperous and mature bachelor. This timeless story of Bathsheba’s choices and passions explores the nature of relationships and love – as well as the human ability to overcome hardships through resilience and perseverance.

The critics and viewers are both giving this film good ratings, and the trailer makes it look quite interesting. This turned out to be a special film, although filled with endless romantic entanglement…which lead to the maximum amount of melodrama. The characters were exceptional, and especially the part played by Cary Mulligan as the leading lady. I really enjoyed the sound track, and the English setting, which gave the film such a depth of feeling. I was with three others, and everyone thought quite highly of it. Personally, I would give it a strong B+ grade, perhaps just shy of the top spot. If you like love stories, along with all the drama that they provide, this may be one not to miss. I was touched by the film, and very glad I made the effort to see it. It was certainly a different type of film, than the numberless action movies that I find playing so often. It was a great change of pace, and I wished there were more like this one coming through Maui theaters.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


>>>
Atlantic Ocean:
The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

>>> Caribbean Sea: The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


>>> Gulf of Mexico:
The last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season…has occurred. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL


For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:


1.
An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system has changed little in organization during the past several hours, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
(Invest 91E)

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
2. Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 1600 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has
also changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
so while the low remains stationary.  After that time, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast.
(Invest 90E)

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent


This NHC image shows these two disturbances described above


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)


>>> Central Pacific
: The central north Pacific hurricane season has officially ended. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


>>>
Northwest Pacific Ocean:There are no active tropical cyclones


>>>
South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:
US Exposure to Extreme Heat is on the Rise U.S. residents’ exposure to extreme heat could increase four- to six-fold by mid-century, due to both a warming climate and a population that’s growing especially fast in the hottest regions of the country, according to new research.


The study, by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the City University of New York (CUNY), highlights the importance of considering societal changes when trying to determine future climate impacts.


“Both population change and climate change matter,” said NCAR scientist Brian O’Neill, one of the study’s co-authors. “If you want to know how heat waves will affect health in the future, you have to consider both.”


Extreme heat kills more people in the United States than any other weather-related event, and scientists generally expect the number of deadly heat waves to increase as the climate warms. The new study, published May 18 in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that the overall exposure of to these future heat waves would be vastly underestimated if the role of population changes were ignored.


The total number of people exposed to extreme heat is expected to increase the most in cities across the country’s southern reaches, including Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Tampa, and San Antonio.


The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and the U.S. Department of Energy.


CLIMATE, POPULATION, AND HOW THEY INTERACT


For the study, the research team used 11 different high-resolution simulations of future temperatures across the United States between 2041 and 2070, assuming no major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The simulations were produced with a suite of global and regional climate models as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.


Using a newly developed demographic model, the scientists also studied how the U.S. population is expected to grow and shift regionally during the same time period, assuming current migration trends within the country continue.


Total exposure to extreme heat was calculated in “person-days” by multiplying the number of days when the temperature is expected to hit at least 95 degrees by the number of people who are projected to live in the areas where extreme heat is occurring.


The results are that the average annual exposure to extreme heat in the United States during the study period is expected to be between 10 and 14 billion person-days, compared to an annual average of 2.3 billion person-days between 1971 and 2000.


Of that increase, roughly a third is due solely to the warming climate (the increase in exposure to extreme heat that would be expected even if the population remained unchanged). Another third is due solely to population change (the increase in exposure that would be expected if climate remained unchanged but the population continued to grow and people continued to moved to warmer places). The final third is due to the interaction between the two (the increase in exposure expected because the population is growing fastest in places that are also getting hotter).


“We asked, ‘Where are the people moving? Where are the climate hot spots? How do those two things interact?'” said NCAR scientist Linda Mearns, also a study co-author. “When we looked at the country as a whole, we found that each factor had relatively equal effect.”


At a regional scale, the picture is different. In some areas of the country, climate change packs a bigger punch than population growth and vice versa.


For example, in the U.S. Mountain region—defined by the Census Bureau as the area stretching from Montana and Idaho south to Arizona and New Mexico—the impact of a growing population significantly outstrips the impact of a warming climate. But the opposite is true in the South Atlantic region, which encompasses the area from West Virginia and Maryland south through Florida.


Exposure vs. vulnerability


Regardless of the relative role that population or climate plays, some increase in total exposure to extreme heat is expected in every region of the continental United States. Even so, the study authors caution that exposure is not necessarily the same thing as vulnerability.


“Our study does not say how vulnerable or not people might be in the future,” O’Neill said. “We show that heat exposure will go up, but we don’t know how many of the people exposed will or won’t have air conditioners or easy access to public health centers, for example.”


The authors also hope the study will inspire other researchers to more frequently incorporate social factors, such as population change, into studies of climate change impacts.


“There has been so much written regarding the potential impacts of climate change, particularly as they relate to physical climate extremes,” said Bryan Jones, a postdoctoral researcher at the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research and lead author of the study. “However, it is how people experience these extremes that will ultimately shape the broader public perception of climate change.”