Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday:
85 Lihue, Kauai
88 Honolulu, Oahu
88 Molokai
93 Kahului, Maui – record highest temperature for Saturday 95…back in 1951
87 Kailua Kona
87 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:
1.05 Waimea Heights, Kauai
3.27 Palisades, Oahu
0.29 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.05 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.13 Kaupo Gap, Maui
1.63 Glenwood, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:
15 Port Allen, Kauai
14 Makua Range, Oahu
18 Molokai
12 Lanai
27 Kahoolawe
15 Hana, Maui
20 Upolu AP, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We find a cold front to the northwest with thunderstorms, along with other
towering cumulus or thunderstorms over the water to the southwest
of the Big Island…as well as hurricane Simon far east towards Mexico
Light southeasterly breezes Sunday, accompanied by volcanic haze (vog)
and sultry conditions – it may take until Wednesday or so before light
trade winds return
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our winds will remain on the light side Sunday…into the new week ahead. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profiler of the central Pacific. We find a moderately strong near 1025 millibar high pressure system far to the northeast…with a ridge running southwest to near Kauai. There are low pressure systems to the north and northwest, with associated cold fronts…although none of them are forecast to reach our islands. The presence of these frontal boundaries however, will keep our trade wind producing high pressure ridge close to the islands, or even over us…thus the light winds. The closest low pressure system and cold front, will veer our light breezes to the southeast Sunday into early in the new week. As this front pushes the high pressure ridge down over us, our southeasterly breezes will bring volcanic haze and muggy conditions our way into Monday and maybe Tuesday.
Satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies, with some cloudy areas. Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows high cirrus moving by to the south of the state, along with some lower level clouds, along with a thunderstorm over the ocean to the southwest. Here’s the looping radar, showing light showers falling, with some heavy ones too, mostly over the central islands…and especially on Oahu at the time of this writing. The light winds over our area, in conjunction with the daytime heating of the islands, will prompt more afternoon interior clouds Sunday…with showers here and there. I’ll be back with many more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Friday Evening Film: There are several good looking films that have arrived here on Maui. I thought I was taking a big chance, although I went to see one of them on opening night. It’s one that looked very engaging, called Gone Girl, starring Rosamund Pike, Ben Affleck, Tyler Perry, Neil Patrick Harris, Kim Dickens…among many others. The synopsis: directed by David Fincher and based upon the global bestseller by Gillian Flynn – unearths the secrets at the heart of a modern marriage. On the occasion of his fifth wedding anniversary, Nick Dunne (Ben Affleck) reports that his beautiful wife, Amy (Rosamund Pike), has gone missing. Under pressure from the police and a growing media frenzy, Nick’s portrait of a blissful union begins to crumble. Soon his lies, deceits and strange behavior have everyone asking the same dark question: Did Nick Dunne kill his wife? ~~~ The critics in general are giving this film a high 86% rating, while the audiences are giving it an even higher 93%. I joined my neighbors Jeff and his girlfriend Svetlana, and another lady friend of ours for this viewing, It turned out to be very good, with what I thought were outstanding performances. It was entertaining to the maximum degree…a deep running thriller to say the least. It was disturbing and compelling at the same time, the kind of film that draws you in, and keeps you on the edge of your seat throughout. Part of the great appeal of this film was how handsome Ben Affleck is…and how very attractive Rosamund Pike is! As for grades, from the four of us: A-, A-, A-, and I gave it a straight up A rating. Here’s the trailer if you’d like to take a peek.
Total Lunar Eclipse visible in the islands – October 7-8
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific: Hurricane 19E (Simon) remains active, located approximately 460 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California…with sustained winds of near 100 mph. Here’s a graphical track map…along with a satellite image / Category 2
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: Typhoon 18W (Phanfone) remains active, located approximately 405 NM southwest of Yokosuka Japan …with sustained winds of near 104 mph. Here’s a graphical track map…along with a satellite image
Typhoon 19W (Vongfong) remains active, located approximately 105 NM east of Andersen AFB…with sustained winds of near 104 mph. Here’s a graphical track map…along with a satellite image
>>> South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: How do we know an extreme weather event might be caused by climate change? – Nowadays, when there’s a killer heat wave or serious drought somewhere, people wonder: Is this climate change at work? It’s a question scientists have struggled with for years. And now there’s a new field of research that’s providing some answers. It’s called “attribution science” – a set of principles that allow scientists to determine when it’s a change in climate that’s altering weather events — and when it isn’t.
The principles start with the premise that, as almost all climate scientists expect, there will be more “extreme” weather events if the planet warms up much more: heat waves, droughts, huge storms.
But then, there have always been periodic bouts of extreme weather on Earth, long before climate change. How do you tell the difference between normal variation in weather — including these rare extremes — and what climate change is doing?
That sort of discernment is difficult, so scientists have had a rule, a kind of mantra: You can’t attribute any single weather event to climate change. It could just be weird weather.
Then they took a close at last year’s heat wave in Australia.
The chances that the continent’s extreme temperatures reflected normal variation is “almost impossible,” says Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the Hadley Center of the Met Office, in Exeter, Great Britain. “It’s hard to imagine how you would have had those temperatures without climate change,” he says.
Stott is one of a group of researchers analyzing the patterns of “extreme weather” events in the past and comparing them with the patterns Earth is experiencing now. The intensity of last year’s Australian heat wave was statistically “off the charts,” he says. Climate change had to be behind it.
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Sacha Says:
Hi!
I was in beautiful Hawaii this summer and I was wondering why there were never thunderstorms over the mountains. Mountains were always in the clouds and in the rain, but I never saw thunderstorms.
For example, in France, in the Riviera, in Summer, the sky is usually blue over the coast, and you can see thunderstorms developing over the mountains.
Mahalo!
Sacha~~~Hi Sacha, that is a good question. Part of the reason is that we often have trade winds blowing, which often come with a relatively low inversion, capping clouds, keeping them from expanding upwards. At the same time, we often don’t have cold enough air aloft over the islands, to cause enough instability of the atmosphere…to allow thunderstorms to form. Thunderstorms don’t happen much here in Hawaii, although as the trade winds perhaps taper off to some degree, in association with global climate change…we may begin to slowly see more thunderstorm activity over and around the mountains in the future. When we have onshore sea breezes, they travel up the mountain slopes, where cumulus clouds form in the late morning through early afternoon hours. These can drop light to moderately heavy showers, although sometimes we do see thunderstorms forming, bringing heavier…or even flooding precipitation. Thanks for your good question, Aloha, Glenn