Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday:

86  Lihue, Kauai
89  Honolulu, Oahu
87  Molokai
91  Kahului, Maui - the record highest temperature on this date…was 93 back in 1952, 1978
88  Kailua Kona
85  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Monday evening:


0.07  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.08  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.04  Molokai airport, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.00  Maui
0.82  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of early Monday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai

33  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
33  Molokai
39  Lanai
42  Kahoolawe
35  Kahului AP, Maui
31  South Point, Big Island


Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.



Aloha Paragraphs

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP0914W5_NL+gif/145231W5_NL_sm.gif


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/ir4-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09E/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif
Close-up satellite image of category 3 hurricane Iselle


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP10/refresh/EP1014W5_NL+gif/144206W5_NL_sm.gif
By the way, the H in those little circles heading (more or less)
towards Hawaii above…stand for hurricane!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif
Tropical Storm Julio…following Hurricane Iselle 


Our trade winds will continue blowing…moderately strong
through Wednesday – with changes in speed and direction
expected as two tropical cyclones move over, or close
to the Hawaiian Islands Thursday into the weekend


A very dry atmosphere will prevail through Wednesday, with
just a few windward biased showers…falling mostly during
the night and early morning hours

Looking ahead, we should find tropical cyclone Iselle
arriving here in the island area later Thursday into
Friday…we’ll need to keep a very close eye on this first
tropical storm to threaten the Hawaiian Islands in a long while!


Here’s a real time wind profiler showing category 3 hurricane
Iselle to the east-southeast of Hawaii – Here’s an animated
satellite image of Iselle

Tropical cyclone Julio is following closely in the wake of
Iselle…and is at tropical storm strength at the moment – both
of which look destined to bring windy and rainy weather our
way, along with damaging high surf to our islands later
Wednesday into the weekend

Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels
around Maui County and the Big Island


NWS Hydrologic Outlook: Heavy Rain and Flash
Flooding possible Thursday and Friday





~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our trade winds will remain active, blowing in the moderately strong range for the most part…locally stronger at times. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. We have moderately strong high pressure systems located to the northeast of the state, with a ridge of high pressure extending southwest…to the north of Hawaii. At the same time, we have lots of low pressure systems moving by to the south of the state…and will continue doing so through the upcoming week. Our winds will begin going through some definite changes as two tropical cyclones move through, or close to the Hawaiian Islands beginning Thursday…through the weekend into early next week.

Satellite imagery shows hardly any low level clouds over or around us at the time of this writing…with some high clouds to our southwest. Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows considerable thunderstorm activity over the ocean to the southwest through south of the state…the largest of these areas is tropical depression Geneieve to Hawaii’s west-southwest.  The spinning clouds associated with category 3 hurricane Iselle are evident on the right side of that animated image…which continues to take aim on our fragile islands. Here’s the looping radar, showing just a few scattered showers falling locally along the windward sides and around the mountains, with most of the leeward sides dry at the time of this writing. The cooler hours of the night might coax a few showers out of the very clouds that are around…but there won’t be many anywhere through most of Tuesday.

We’ll find favorably inclined, trade wind weather conditions…prevailing through the middle of this week. However, category 3 hurricane Iselle, still in the eastern Pacific…will soon become headline weather news here in Hawaii.  The forecast has hurricane Iselle being downgraded to a tropical storm as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. As this National Hurricane Center’s official track map shows, the islands will have this tropical storm moving over, or close to portions of the state later Thursday through Friday! The models are showing yet another tropical cyclone moving westward into the central Pacific, a couple of days behind Iselle. This system, which is a tropical storm, is called Julio…and will go on to become a hurricane. Julio could bring another round of heavy weather to the islands by later this coming weekend. There’s still some minor uncertainty about exactly where tropical storm Iselle will strike here in Hawaii, or if it will slide by just to the south of the state. Either way however, we will very likely see wet and blustery weather, with high surf conditions along our east facing beaches during the Thursday-Friday time frame, please see more just below. I’ll be back again early Tuesday morning with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


By the way, if you go to the very bottom of this page, you’ll find some interesting comments that folks have written to me…be sure to click: View All

~~~ Category 3 hurricane Iselle:  This is a very strong and potent major hurricane, which is wildly churning the waters of the eastern Pacific. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimate of sustained winds is 127 mph…with gusts as high as 155 mph. This hurricane has peaked in terms of winds earlier Monday, and will slowly diminish in strength from here on out – which is a very good thing for the Hawaiian Islands! Nonetheless, Iselle is expected to retain her hurricane strength as she pushes into our central Pacific for a day or almost two. This crossing point by the way is the 140W line of longitude…which is about 1000 miles east of Hawaii. It will likely remain a hurricane through Wednesday night, although barely, and by early Thursday, it will weaken back into a tropical storm. It will likely stay a tropical storm thereafter, as it migrates by close to the Hawaiian Islands.

A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds between 39 and 74 mph. We will also see high surf arriving ahead of this tropical storm, mostly breaking along the southeast and easterly shores. By the way, at the moment, I’m more worried about what hurricane Julio (if he stays a hurricane before arriving here in the islands) will do to us. Part of this concern is that Iselle could soak us with lots of tropical rain, and our soils would become saturated.  Then, as the heavy rains from Julio arrive…they could potentially trigger lots more flash flooding. * This is a snap shot at the time when I’m writing, and things will be changing on a daily basis. This in turn could end up having some bearing on the actual weather we end up having between later Thursday and Friday through next Monday or early Tuesday.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm (Bertha) remains active as she heads out into the Atlantic Ocean away from the southeast and east coasts of the United States, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – Here’s what the hurricane models are showing.


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:
 There are no active tropical cyclones

 

Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane 09E (Iselle) remains active at the category 3 level, located about 1055 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – here’s what the hurricane models are showing


Tropical Storm 10E Julio remains active in the NE Pacific Ocean, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image this system will become hurricane Julio within 12-18 hours – here’s what the hurricane models are showing.

1.)  A small low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. While shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization during the past several hours, upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium…30 percent


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Central Pacific
: Tropical Depression (Genevieve) remains active to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, here’s the CPHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


Northwest Pacific Ocean:Typhoon 11W (Halong)
remains active well to the east of southeast of Taiwan, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image.


South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  Atlantic Ocean warming linked to Pacific trade winds - New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s.


The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001.


It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific.


“We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean,” said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) at the University of New South Wales.


“It highlights how changes in the climate in one part of the world can have extensive impacts around the globe.”


The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers.