Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday:
86 Lihue, Kauai
89 Honolulu, Oahu
91 Kahului, Maui – the record highest temperature on this date…was 94 back in 1952
88 Kailua Kona
86 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Sunday evening:
0.33 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.01 Poamoho RG 1, Oahu
0.09 Molokai airport, Molokai
0.01 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.40 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Sunday evening:
27 Port Allen, Kauai
30 Kahuku, Oahu
33 Kahului AP, Maui
32 South Point, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Close-up satellite image of category 4 major hurricane Iselle
Our trade winds will continue blowing…moderately strong
well into the future
A relatively dry atmosphere will prevail through Wednesday,
with just a few windward biased showers…falling mostly during
the night and early morning hours
Looking further ahead, we should find tropical cyclone Iselle
arriving here in Hawaii later Thursday into Friday…we’ll
want to keep a very close eye on this first tropical storm
to threaten the Hawaiian Islands in a long while!
Here’s a real time wind profiler showing the tropical depression
to our southwest, a disturbance to our southeast…and
hurricane Iselle further to the east of Hawaii
The models are showing a second tropical cyclone following
closely in the wake of Iselle…which will have the name Julio,
which has recently become tropical depression 10E – both of
which may bring windy and rainy weather to our islands
4 through 7 days from now
Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our trade winds will remain active, blowing in the moderately strong range for the most part…locally stronger at times. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. We have moderately strong high pressure systems located to the northeast of the state, with a ridge of high pressure extending southwest…to the north of Hawaii. At the same time, we have lots of low pressure systems moving by to the south of the state…and will continue doing so through the upcoming week. The forecast calls for the trade winds to remain active well into the future.
Satellite imagery shows only scattered low level clouds moving across parts of the state…with high cirrus clouds approaching from the southwest. Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows considerable thunderstorm activity over the ocean to the southwest through southeast of the state…the largest of these areas is tropical depression Geneieve to Hawaii’s south-southwest. The cloud tops from tropical depression Geneieve are being blown northwards towards Hawaii. The spinning clouds associated with hurricane Iselle are showing up on the far right side of that animated image. Here’s the looping radar, showing scattered showers falling locally along the windward sides and around the mountains, with most of the leeward sides dry at the time of this writing.
We‘ll find good weather prevailing through the middle of the new work week. However, major category 4 hurricane Iselle, still in the eastern Pacific…will soon become headline weather news here in Hawaii. The forecast has hurricane Iselle being downgraded to a tropical storm before it reaches our islands. As this National Hurricane Center’s official track map shows however, the islands will have this tropical storm on its doorstep Thursday evening into Friday night! The models are showing yet another tropical cyclone moving westward into the central Pacific, a couple of days behind Iselle. This system, which has recently become a tropical storm, and will go on to become hurricane. Julio may bring another round of heavy weather to the islands by later next weekend. Back to the present, we’re still watching tropical depression Genevieve to our southwest, which will be strengthening again into a tropical storm…as it continues to move safely away westward. I’ll be back early Monday morning with more updates on all of the above and below, I hope you have a great Sunday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Friday Evening Film: There are quite a few good looking films showing here in Kahului now, although one stood out for me, called Lucy, starring Scarlett Johansson, Morgan Freeman, Min-sik, Amr Waked, Julian Rhind-Tutt, Analeigh Tipton…among many others. The synopsis: from La Femme Nikita and The Professional to The Fifth Element, writer/director Luc Besson has created some of the toughest, most memorable female action heroes in cinematic history. Now, Besson directs Scarlett Johansson in Lucy, an action-thriller that tracks a woman accidentally caught in a dark deal who turns the tables on her captors and transforms into a merciless warrior evolved beyond human logic.
As is often the case, I really liked this film, despite how utterly violent it was. I was with three other people, and then ran into a couple of others after the film, and everyone noted the extreme physicality. I was actually surprised at how taken I was with the film, supported by its unexpected philosophical bent. It was just so darn interesting, with such a broad spectrum of interesting scenes, ranging between the very distant past…all the way out into amazing future realms. The star of the show, by far, was Scarlett Johansoon, who I thought gave one of the best performances of her career. I was literally swept away by this film, which I would call entertainment to da max! As for a grade, in my opinion it deserved a soft A rating! If this has caught your interest, and if you can stomach the intensity and violence, I’d say go see it. Here’s the trailer…if you dare click on it.
Saturday Evening Film: My neighbor Jeff called me at the last minute, and suggested we go down and see yet another film. I roused myself, and we drove down to Kahului, this time to see the new film A Most Wanted Man, starring now deceased Philip Seymour Hoffman, Rachel McAdams, Grigority Dobrygin, Willem Dafoe, Robin Wright, Homayoun Ershadi…among many others. The synopsis: when a half-Chechen, half-Russian, brutally tortured immigrant turns up in Hamburg’s Islamic community, laying claim to his father’s ill-gotten fortune, both German and US security agencies take a close interest: as the clock ticks down and the stakes rise, the race is on to establish this most wanted man’s true identity – oppressed victim or destruction-bent extremist?
This film was completely different than the previous nights Lucy. There was only one aspect that commonly identified them…and that was that they were both excellent. I felt the actors in A Most Wanted Man all gave stunning performances, especially Philip Seymour Hoffman! It was so strange to be seeing this man, providing us with such an outstanding range of emotions, knowing full well that he was no longer among the living. To quote one critic: this film was challenging, intelligent, emcompassing the best and worst of human nature with unflinching precision and wistful melancholy. Let me think of a few other words that describe this very serious piece of work: gripping, extremely entertaining, engulfing you in very difficult questions…with dialogues that were often more like poetry than anything else. As for a grade, I’d be hard pressed to give it anything less than a solid A rating, one of the best I’ve seen in a long time. Here’s the trailer for this film, one which may pull you right into your nearest theater…like it did me!
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: Hurricane 09E (Iselle) remains active at the category 4 level, located about 1245 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image
Tropical Storm 10E (Julio) remains active in the NE Pacific Ocean, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – this system will become hurricane Julio – here’s what the hurricane models are showing.
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
1.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located about 500 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Upper-level winds are not currently favorable for development of this system, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Northwest Pacific Ocean: Typhoon 11W (Halong) remains active well to the east of the Philippine Islands, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image.
Tropical Depression 12W (Nakri) is dissipating over South Korea, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – Final Warning
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Defending against sea level rise could make the problem worse – A combination of coastal defenses and rising sea levels could change typical UK tidal ranges, potentially leading to a higher risk of flooding, say scientists.
The researchers wanted to find out how tides around the UK might respond to changes in sea level over the next century depending on the level of coastal defences in place.
The study, published in Continental Shelf Research, shows for the first time that local coastal defenses, such as sea walls, could cause tides to change dramatically. It suggests flood defenses need to be reassessed on an international scale as they may lead to an increased risk of flooding.
‘We wanted to see how sea level rise would affect the tidal range- the difference between high water and low water – and to see if it would cause any potential changes in the time of high water and tidal velocities,’ explains Dr Holly Pelling of Bangor University, lead researcher on the study.
The researchers used computer models to simulate how the tides would change if the sea level was one meter higher than present day. They then assessed how three stages of coastal defenses affected those tidal changes: no coastal defenses; coastal defenses similar to the levels in place today; and a version where the entire coast was protected by a wall.
If there were no coastal defenses in place, then allowing the sea level to rise by up to a meter caused little change in tides. But the tides changed dramatically if they added walls around the coast allowing only part of the countryside to flood.
‘We saw a small change in tides if no flooding was allowed, but we were surprised to find that we recorded the largest response when flood defenses are implemented that allow only part of the coastline to flood,’ Pelling says.
She suspects that the walls in place around the coast could cause the tides to reflect and amplify, which could lead to flooding.
‘The tide is basically a wave with a certain amount of energy and it dissipates energy as it travels. For example if it enters the North Sea by the time it reaches the southern North Sea you have a low tidal energies and the tides not doing much,’ says Pelling. ‘But if it builds up behind coastal defenses you get this honeycomb effect with narrow channels which funnel the water, and the walls which could cause the tidal energy to be reflected and this could change where the energy is dissipated. So some areas will find the tidal amplitude is higher while others will find they are lower.’
Pelling’s research suggests a more unified approach needs to be taken to building coastal defenses, since the tidal impacts of sea level rise doesn’t occur on a local scale.
‘Flood defenses are very localized, they only protect the bit of land they are in front of, but potentially there could be wider implications seaward since, unfortunately, the oceanography doesn’t respect country or county boundaries. We really need to look at defenses on a basin-wide perspective to see how to implement them,’ she says.
The team were surprised to find that coastal defenses had any impact on the tides as they didn’t set out originally to study their impact but chose to include it as part of the model.
‘We’re not making predictions, just showing that this mechanism could be important. More detailed research needs to be done.’