Air Temperatures The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday:

85  Lihue, Kauai
89  Honolulu, Oahu
89  Molokai
91  Kahului, Maui - the record highest temperature on this date…was 94 back in 1999
88  Kailua Kona
85  Hilo, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Saturday evening:


3.11  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.47  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.02  Molokai airport, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.33  Puu Kukui, Maui
2.85  Hakalau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Saturday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai

29  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31  Molokai
28  Lanai
37  Kahoolawe
29  Kapalua, Maui
30  Kealakomo, Big Island


Hawaii’s MountainsHere’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.



Aloha Paragraphs

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Our trade winds will continue blowing…moderately
strong
well into the future

A drier atmosphere will prevail Sunday through next
Wednesday, with just a few windward biased showers…
falling mostly during the night

Looking further ahead, we’ll find a period of wet
weather arriving next Thursday into Friday…followed
perhaps by yet another surge in showers Sunday or early
in the following week – stay tuned for updates on these
possible longer term wet episodes


Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels
around Maui County and the Big Island





~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~



Our trade winds will remain active, blowing in the moderately strong range for the most part…locally stronger at times. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. We have moderately strong high pressure systems located to the northeast of the state, with a ridge of high pressure extending southwest…to the north of Hawaii.  At the same time, we have lots of low pressure systems moving by to the south of the state…and will continue doing so through many days into the future. The forecast calls for the trade winds to remain active well into the future.

Satellite imagery shows low level clouds moving across parts of the state…with high cirrus clouds arriving locally from the southwest at times too. Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows considerable thunderstorm activity over the ocean to the southwest through southeast of the state…the largest of these areas is tropical depression Geneieve to Hawaii’s south. The cloud tops from tropical storm Geneieve are being blown northwards towards Hawaii. We’re finding area of tropical moisture which is bringing showers our way…on some of the islands. Here’s the looping radar, showing just a few showers falling locally along the windward sides and around the mountains.

A plume of moisture associated with tropical Depression Genevieve, is now heading west…after bringing localized showers. As we get into Sunday morning conditions should be quite nice and less muggy…staying that way through the middle of the new week. Thereafter, hurricane Iselle now in the eastern Pacific, may bring showers to our area later in the new work week. The forecast has hurricane Iselle becoming a weaker tropical storm fairly soon after it gets into our central Pacific, although time will tell. I’ll continue to track this tropical cyclone, as it moves in our general direction. Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s official track map. The models are now showing yet another tropical cyclone moving westward into the central Pacific, a couple of days behind Iselle, we’ll have to keep an eye on this next system, which will be named Julio. Back to the present, we’ll need to watch tropical storm Genevieve to our south…as it continues to move safely westward.  I’ll be back with your next new weather narrative Sunday morning, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.


Friday Evening Film: There are quite a few good looking films showing here in Kahului now, although one stands out for me, its called Lucy, starring Scarlett Johansson, Morgan Freeman, Min-sik, Amr Waked, Julian Rhind-Tutt, Analeigh Tipton…among many others. The synopsis: from La Femme Nikita and The Professional to The Fifth Element, writer/director Luc Besson has created some of the toughest, most memorable female action heroes in cinematic history. Now, Besson directs Scarlett Johansson in Lucy, an action-thriller that tracks a woman accidentally caught in a dark deal who turns the tables on her captors and transforms into a merciless warrior evolved beyond human logic.  

As is often the case, I really liked this film, despite how utterly violent it was. I was with three other people, and then ran into a couple of others after the film, and everyone noted the extreme physicality.  I was actually surprised at how taken I was with the film, supported by its unexpected philosophical bent. It was just so darn interesting, with such a broad spectrum of interesting scenes, ranging between the very distant past…all the way out into amazing future realms. The star of the show, by far, was Scarlett Johansoon, who I thought gave one of the best performances of her career. I was literally swept away by this film, which I would call entertainment to the max! As for a grade, in my opinion it deserved a soft A rating! If this has caught your interest, and if you can stomach the intensity and violence, I’d say go see it. Here’s the trailer…if you dare click on it.


World-wide tropical cyclone activity:


Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones



Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the Northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula is associated with a weak surface trough moving northward at around 10 mph. This disturbance is showing no signs of organization, and development is not expected.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean

Caribbean Sea:
Tropical Storm (Bertha) remains active in the Caribbean Sea, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this slowly strengthening storm.

 

Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Eastern Pacific: Major
Hurricane (Iselle) remains active, located about 1495 miles located about 1495 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this hurricane


1.)   A broad low pressure area located about 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has recently become less organized, environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development during the next couple of days. A tropical depression is still expected to form early next week while the system moves to the west at about 10 mph.


* Formation chance through 48 hours…
high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high..100 percent


Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.


Central Pacific:
Tropical Depression (Genevieve) is active to the south of the Hawaiian Islands , here’s the CPHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image 


1.)  Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located about 730 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Upper-level winds are not currently favorable for development of this system, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at around 20 mph this weekend


* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent


2.)  Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located about 975 miles west southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Conditions are not conducive for development of this system as it continues to move slowly toward the west northwest this weekend.


* Formation chance through 48 hours, low 10 percent


Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)


Northwest Pacific Ocean: Super Typhoon 11W (Halong)
remains active well to the east of the Philippine Islands, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image.

Tropical Depression 12W (Nakri)
is active in the east China Sea, soon moving into the west coast of South Korea, here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image.


South Pacific Ocean:
There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:
There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting:  Defending against sea level rise could make the problem worse - A combination of coastal defenses and rising sea levels could change typical UK tidal ranges, potentially leading to a higher risk of flooding, say scientists.


The researchers wanted to find out how tides around the UK might respond to changes in sea level over the next century depending on the level of coastal defences in place.


The study, published in Continental Shelf Research, shows for the first time that local coastal defenses, such as sea walls, could cause tides to change dramatically. It suggests flood defenses need to be reassessed on an international scale as they may lead to an increased risk of flooding.


‘We wanted to see how sea level rise would affect the tidal range- the difference between high water and low water – and to see if it would cause any potential changes in the time of high water and tidal velocities,’ explains Dr Holly Pelling of Bangor University, lead researcher on the study.


The researchers used computer models to simulate how the tides would change if the sea level was one meter higher than present day. They then assessed how three stages of coastal defenses affected those tidal changes: no coastal defenses; coastal defenses similar to the levels in place today; and a version where the entire coast was protected by a wall.


If there were no coastal defenses in place, then allowing the sea level to rise by up to a meter caused little change in tides. But the tides changed dramatically if they added walls around the coast allowing only part of the countryside to flood.


‘We saw a small change in tides if no flooding was allowed, but we were surprised to find that we recorded the largest response when flood defenses are implemented that allow only part of the coastline to flood,’ Pelling says.


She suspects that the walls in place around the coast could cause the tides to reflect and amplify, which could lead to flooding.


‘The tide is basically a wave with a certain amount of energy and it dissipates energy as it travels. For example if it enters the North Sea by the time it reaches the southern North Sea you have a low tidal energies and the tides not doing much,’ says Pelling. ‘But if it builds up behind coastal defenses you get this honeycomb effect with narrow channels which funnel the water, and the walls which could cause the tidal energy to be reflected and this could change where the energy is dissipated. So some areas will find the tidal amplitude is higher while others will find they are lower.’


Pelling’s research suggests a more unified approach needs to be taken to building coastal defenses, since the tidal impacts of sea level rise doesn’t occur on a local scale.


‘Flood defenses are very localized, they only protect the bit of land they are in front of, but potentially there could be wider implications seaward since, unfortunately, the oceanography doesn’t respect country or county boundaries. We really need to look at defenses on a basin-wide perspective to see how to implement them,’ she says.


The team were surprised to find that coastal defenses had any impact on the tides as they didn’t set out originally to study their impact but chose to include it as part of the model.


‘We’re not making predictions, just showing that this mechanism could be important. More detailed research needs to be done.’