Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:
86 Lihue, Kauai
90 Honolulu, Oahu – Record highest on this date was 92…back in 1997, 2003
90 Kahului, Maui – Record highest on this date was 92…back in 1951, 1981, 1997
87 Kailua Kona
86 Hilo, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands, as of Thursday evening:
0.14 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.07 Kahana, Oahu
0.02 Molokai airport, Molokai
0.52 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.55 Honokaa, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Thursday evening:
21 Poipu, Kauai
24 Honolulu AP, Oahu
22 Kahului AP, Maui
29 Pali 2, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Post-tropical cyclone Genevieve moving by to our south…
with a tropical disturbance well offshore to the southwest
Our trade winds will continue blowing…moderately strong
An area of tropical moisture will bring showers to the Big
Island, then move up over the other islands later today into
Saturday – some rainfall may be heavy over Maui and
the Big Island…improving weather later Saturday into
Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and
channels around Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
Our trade winds will remain active, blowing in the moderately strong range for the most part…locally stronger at times. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. We have moderately strong high pressure systems located to the north and northeast of the state, with ridges of high pressure running southwest. At the same time, we have lots of low pressure systems that are moving by to the south of the state…and will continue doing so through the rest of the week. The forecast calls for the trade winds to remain active, increasing a notch at times..as these tropical disturbances migrate from east to west.
Satellite imagery shows approaching low level clouds generally over the ocean to our east…with high cirrus clouds to our south and southwest. Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows considerable thunderstorm activity over the ocean to the southwest through southeast of the state…some of which are tropical disturbances. We see an area of tropical moisture to the southeast and east, which will bring showers our way tonight into Saturday morning, especially over the Big Island and Maui. Here’s the looping radar, showing a few showers falling locally along the windward sides and around the mountains, which will remain rather limited for the time being. We’ll begin to see the arrival of showers over the windward side of the Big Island tonight…spreading to Maui Friday.
A plume of moisture associated with now retired tropical cyclone Genevieve, moving by to our south…will bring increased showers to the Big Island tonight. These showers will gradually work their way up the chain during the day Friday into Saturday…first over Maui County. There’s a pretty good chance that Maui and the Big Island may end up getting a few downpours out of this, likely along the windward coasts and slopes. The leeward sides may get some of this stuff, although the windward sides will benefit the most. This isn’t a big deal, and there’s nothing to worry about, its just a matter of receiving some good summer rains! As we get into the second half of the weekend, conditions should return to pleasant trade winds through the middle of next week. I’ll be back again early Friday morning with your next new weather narrative. I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you happen to be spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm (Bertha) remains active going towards the Caribbean Islands, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this strengthening storm.
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm (Iselle) remains active, located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California, here’s the NHC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – Here’s what the hurricane models are showing for this strengthening storm.
1.) A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high..70 percent
2.) An area of low pressure located about 1275 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing minimal shower activity. Upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…30 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones
1.) Remnant low Genevieve is currently located about 500 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Atmospheric conditions are only marginally favorable for its redevelopment over the next few days as it moves westward near 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent
2.) An area of low pressure is located about 920 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms have been occurring on the east and southeast periphery of the system. The surrounding environment may permit this system to develop only slightly as it moves west near 10 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: Catching Waves in the Arctic – As the climate warms and sea ice retreats, the North is changing. An ice-covered expanse now has a season of increasingly open water that is predicted to extend across the whole Arctic Ocean before the middle of this century. Storms thus have the potential to create Arctic swell — huge waves that could add a new and unpredictable element to the region.
A University of Washington researcher made the first study of waves in the middle of the Arctic Ocean, and detected house-sized waves during a September 2012 storm. The results were recently published in Geophysical Research Letters.
“As the Arctic is melting, it’s a pretty simple prediction that the additional open water should make waves,” said lead author Jim Thomson, an oceanographer with the UW Applied Physics Laboratory.
His data show that winds in mid-September 2012 created waves of 5 meters (16 feet) high during the peak of the storm. The research also traces the sources of those big waves: high winds, which have always howled through the Arctic, combined with the new reality of open water in summer.
Arctic ice used to retreat less than 100 miles from the shore. In 2012, it retreated more than 1,000 miles. Wind blowing across an expanse of water for a long time creates whitecaps, then small waves, which then slowly consolidate into big swells that carry huge amounts of energy in a single punch.
The size of the waves increases with the fetch, or travel distance over open water. So more open water means bigger waves. As waves grow bigger they also catch more wind, driving them faster and with more energy.
Shipping and oil companies have been eyeing the opportunity of an ice-free season in the Arctic Ocean. The emergence of big waves in the Arctic could be bad news for operating in newly ice-free Northern waters.
“Almost all of the casualties and losses at sea are because of stormy conditions, and breaking waves are often the culprit,” Thomson said.
It also could be a new feedback loop leading to more open water as bigger waves break up the remaining summer ice floes.
“The melting has been going on for decades. What we’re talking about with the waves is potentially a new process, a mechanical process, in which the waves can push and pull and crash to break up the ice,” Thomson said.