Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday:
84 Lihue, Kauai
88 Honolulu, Oahu
89 Kahului, Maui
86 Kailua Kona
82 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 810pm Thursday evening (HST):
Kailua Kona – 82
Hana airport, Maui – 75
Haleakala Summit – 50 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 37 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Trade winds remaining active…becoming a bit lighter during
the weekend for several days – this will likely have us feeling
rather hot and muggy Sunday through next Tuesday
There will be some passing showers along the windward sides,
mostly at night…a few elsewhere around the state – which
may increase locally later Sunday into next Tuesday
This looping satellite image shows quite a few lower level clouds,
and high clouds in our general area today
Small Craft Wind Advisory…windiest coasts and channels
around Maui County and the Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Thursday evening
22 Lihue, Kauai – NE
42 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – NNE
33 Molokai – NE
39 Lanai – NE
33 Kahoolawe – NE
22 Lipoa, Maui, Maui – NE
32 Pali 2, Big Island – NE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Thursday evening (845pm totals):
0.57 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.40 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.39 Puu Kukui, Maui
1.24 Kawainui Stream, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The trade winds will remain active…decreasing a bit this weekend into early next week. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. We have two moderately strong, near 1027 millibar high pressure systems located far to the northeast and northwest of the state…with a connecting ridge between their centers. The models suggest that the trade winds will remain active, although take a temporary slight softening beginning this weekend into the first day or two of next week.
Satellite imagery shows high cirrus clouds generally south of the state…with lower level clouds in the vicinity as well. Looking at this larger looping satellite image, it shows low level clouds riding along in the trade wind flow from east to west. The high clouds have backed off for the moment, although may move over us again soon, they will provide nice colors for sunset and sunset…along with dimming and filtering our Hawaiian sunshine on Friday. Here’s the looping radar, showing veryfew passing showers moving across our area, mostly along our windward sides, which should increase to some extent tonight into early Friday morning. However, it should be pointed out, that we are likely going into a relatively dry spell through most of the weekend.
Favorably inclined weather conditions, with little change through the weekend. Our trade winds will ease up a little this weekend into early next week…with a possible increase in showers late Sunday into Monday. These showers will be part of now retired tropical cyclone Fausto, and may stick around into Tuesday. There’s a chance they could skip us altogether however, although I’ll keep you abreast of their possible arrival going forward. I’ll be back again early Friday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise, I hope you have a great Thursday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was a relatively warm 63.5 degrees at 555am on this Thursday morning. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, cloudier than usual for this time in the morning.
We’re well into the afternoon now at 350pm, under very sunny skies, light breezes, and very warm 85.1 degrees (at least for up here in Kula). Oh boy, it’s another one of those unusually sunny days, and I mean really sunny and warm! Fortunately I washed my clothes today, and they will dry very quickly out on the line…that’s for sure.
It’s now 540pm, under clear to partly cloudy skies, very light winds…and an air temperature of 83.8 degrees. Summer weather, full on, no doubt about it! I’ve never been all that thrilled by 80+ degree days here in Kula, although whatever little breeze sure helps. As soon as the sun goes down, at least for me, it begins to feel more manageable.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 5 days
Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
North Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones through the next 5 days
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 2 days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Northwest Pacific Ocean: Tropical storm 09W remains active, and will be gradually increasing in strength. Here’s the JTWC graphical track map…along with a satellite image – and a looping satellite image showing Guam.
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: 2014 Natural Disaster Damage and Death Toll Well Below Average – Extreme weather events and other natural disasters claimed the lives of more than 2,700 people and caused around US $42 billion in damage worldwide in the first half of 2014, but this was well below the first half of last year and a 10-year average, according to new research from reinsurer Munich Re.
However, the briefing report warns that towards the end of the year the natural climate phenomenon El Niño may impact regions differently in terms of the number and intensity of weather extremes.
During the first half of the year, 2,700 people died as a result of natural catastrophes, which was much lower than is normal during the first six months of a year (10-year average: 53,000). There were around 490 loss-relevant natural catastrophes. The highest economic losses arose in the USA (35%), followed by Europe and Asia (30% each).
“Of course, it is good news that natural catastrophes have been relatively mild so far”, said Torsten Jeworrek, Munich Re’s Board member responsible for global reinsurance business. “But we should not forget that there has been no change in the overall risk situation.
“Loss minimization measures must remain at the forefront of our considerations. They make absolute sense from a macroeconomic perspective, as lower subsequent losses mean that they mostly generate savings of several times the investment amount. And they protect human lives.”
The effect of loss susceptibility on claims was clearly demonstrated by two snowstorms in Japan. These storms in February, which hit Tokyo and central Japan in particular, brought overall losses of around US$ 5bn and insured losses of more than US$ 2.5bn, and were the most costly natural catastrophe worldwide in the first half of the year. Snowfalls of up to a meter are very unusual in the affected provinces in Japan, though they would cause very few problems in other countries. There were numerous accidents, and the roofs of many halls and greenhouses collapsed under the weight of the snow.
The record winter in North America also caused significant losses, with extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfalls over a longer period in many parts of the USA and Canada. The losses from various blizzards totaled around US$ 3.4bn. The most costly snowstorm was in the first week of January: losses for this storm alone totaled US$ 2.5bn, of which US$ 1.7bn was insured.
In many instances the harsh winter also had a heavy impact on business, as companies were forced to stop production. At the end of January, a blizzard brought the Atlanta metropolitan area almost to a standstill, even though only a few centimeters of snow had fallen. Snow and ice made the highways impassable, as there was a lack of snow-clearing equipment for a city unused to such conditions.
According to Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research Department, there is a link between the weather extremes in the northern hemisphere this winter. “These extremes – with heavy winter conditions in North America and Asia, and the extraordinarily mild winter across large parts of Europe – were due to significant and lengthy meanders in the jet stream,” said Höppe. “And scientists are still having intense debates about whether such sustained changes to patterns in the jet stream – and therefore also the frequency of such extreme and persistent weather conditions – might increase in the future due to climate change.”
The mild winter in Europe contributed to the heavy floods in England that lasted into February. As it was mainly rural areas that were affected, overall losses remained within an acceptable limit of US$ 1.3bn and insured losses were around US$ 1.1bn.
In May, heavy flooding in the Balkans as far east as Romania caused very high economic losses. It is not unusual to have intense rainfall in these countries in the spring, but the low-pressure system Yvette produced abnormally heavy and persistent rainfall. In many places, precipitation reached the highest levels ever registered since records began more than 100 years ago. High flood levels, particularly on the rivers Sava, Bosna and Danube caused overall economic losses of US$ 4bn, making this the second most costly natural catastrophe in the world in the first half of the year. However, the relatively low level of insurance penetration meant that insured losses were not very high.
A storm front that passed over western Germany on 9 June caused high insured losses. There was localized heavy damage caused by wind squalls and hailstones, particularly around Düsseldorf. Overall, insured losses were US$ 890m, and overall losses amounted to around US$ 1.2bn. The storm front had previously passed through France and Belgium, causing major damage in the Yvelines Départment of France. Overall losses in the various countries amounted to US$ 3.1bn, of which US$ 2.5bn was insured.
The tornado season in the USA, which peaks from May to July, has been below average so far. The US weather agency NOAA recorded 721 tornadoes until end of June, in comparison to an average of 1,026 in the years 2005–2013. However, some tornado outbreaks caused significant damage. Videos filmed on 17 June showed an extremely rare twin tornado in the State of Nebraska. The two tornadoes were both classified at the second-highest scale 4, with wind speeds of over 260 km/h, and they caused serious damage in the small town of Pilger.
Over the rest of the year, weather events will probably see increasing impact from ENSO, a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. “With the contrary effects of El Niño and La Niña, ENSO can influence weather patterns in many parts of the world”, said Höppe. “It currently looks as though a moderate El Niño will develop by the autumn, with warm water from the South Pacific moving from west to east, thus shifting wind systems and precipitation across the Pacific basin.”
Hurricane activity in the northern Atlantic normally decreases during El Niño phases. The number of typhoons in the northwest Pacific usually increases, but they make landfall more rarely. Tornado activity increases in the USA. “This gives a different distribution of losses across regions. Globally, our loss database NatCatSERVICE records no significant differences in overall losses in moderate El Niño years when compared to neutral years, whereas losses are significantly lower in years with a strong El Niño”, said Höppe. The stronger the El Niño, the more likely it is that there will be a La Niña in the following year, when hurricane activity tends to increase.