Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday:
80 Lihue, Kauai
84 Honolulu, Oahu
82 Kahului, Maui
84 Kailua Kona
79 Hilo, Hawaii
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain tops on Maui and the Big Island…as of 630pm Saturday evening:
Kailua Kona – 78
Hana, Maui - 72
Haleakala Summit – 46 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea Summit – 39 (13,000+ feet on the Big Island)
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too… depending upon weather conditions.
Easing trade winds through Monday – then rebounding
by mid-week…continuing through the week
Showers falling along our windward sides at times…a
few elsewhere – increasing some Monday and Tuesday
The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions…as of Saturday evening:
27 Poipu, Kauai – NE
39 Kuaokala, Oahu – NE
35 Molokai – ENE
30 Lanai – NE
39 Kahoolawe – NE
31 Kahului, Maui – NE
32 Kawaihae, Big Island – NE
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Saturday evening (545pm totals):
2.69 Kilohana, Kauai
0.73 Wheeler airfield, Oahu
1.88 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.69 Piihonua, Big Island
We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean. Here’s the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image… and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The current gusty trade winds will be softening into Monday..before rebounding later Tuesday onwards. Here’s the latest weather map, showing the Hawaiian Islands, and the rest of the North Pacific Ocean, along with a real-time wind profile of the central Pacific…focused on the Hawaiian Islands. ~~~ We see a moderately strong, near 1028 millibar high pressure system, located some 800 miles to our north-northeast of the islands. Our winds will be from the east for the most part, which will remain locally rather strong and gusty for the time being. As we get into Sunday and Monday, this trade wind flow will ease up briefly, before bouncing back into the moderately strong realms Tuesday or Wednesday…through the remainder of the week.
Satellite imagery shows considerable high level clouds over and around the state…which will continue through Sunday in most areas. Looking at this larger satellite image, which is in the looping mode, we see copious amounts of thick high cirrus clouds that have been dimming and filtering our sunshine for the last couple of days. We will be treated to colorful sunrise and sunset colors while they’re around. Here’s a looping radar image, showing light showers moving across the island chain…falling along our north and east facing windward coasts and slopes…especially from Oahu down to Maui County at the time of this writing.
Our winds, at least in those windiest areas, will continue to gust up into the 30+ mph range in those windiest areas…although are on a diminishing trend now. This morning we saw gusts to 30+ mph on each of the islands…with several areas now receiving 40+ mph gusts. This evening they have backed-off into the 30+ mph range, which will be easing into the 20-30 mph range Sunday…and lighter still on Monday. These trades will bring passing showers to our windward sides, and a couple over into our leeward sides on the smaller islands at times too. There are no dynamic cold fronts on our horizon, nor any rainfall enhancing upper level low pressure systems…thus no major rainfall events are expected through the next week. The latest forecast continues to show a shower producing frontal boundary arriving Tuesday/Wednesday of the new week, although most showers will occur along our windward sides. I’ll be back Sunday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you’re spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Here on Maui, at the 3,100 foot elevation, at my upper Kula, Maui weather tower, the air temperature was 55 degrees at 635am on this Saturday morning. There are still lots of high cirrus clouds overhead, although they seem to have thinned out some this morning. These icy clouds lit up a nice pink at sunrise this morning, beginning our weekend in a very pleasant way. Glancing over towards the windward sides, I see lots of lower level shower bearing clouds, which is keeping those areas locally wet this morning. The main thing that will catch our attention today, despite the high and lower level clouds, will of course be the gusty trade winds…keep those skirts held down ladies!
It’s now early afternoon, at 1210pm, under partly cloudy skies. The air temperature is 75.6 degrees, with light trade wind breezes blowing. I just got back from a quick trip down to Paia, on the windward side, for my weekly shopping. Between there, and the 20 something minute drive home, I found rain falling at times, ranging between light mist…and a few heavy spurts of rain too. Looking down the mountain towards the leeward sides, it appears to be clear to partly cloudy, with lots of warm sunshine beaming down. I just got a text from two of my neighbors, inviting me to go out dancing with them tonight, meeting two other lady friends of ours as well. This sounds really fun to me, so I accepted…more on that later.
We’re into the early evening hours now, at 605pm, under cloudy skies and an air temperature of 68.4 degrees. Sorry, I got pulled into a ping pong match, and then a catch and throw session with my neighbor before finishing this last paragraph of the day. It’s now almost dark, and I’ll be making something for dinner soon. As I was saying above, my neighbors and I will be joining three other ladies tonight…for dancing in Kihei. One of these women is a belly dancer, another is a high tech person…and the third a younger woman whose a biologist. There will be a designated driver, so we’ll likely have a few drinks along the way. I’m looking forward to getting back on the dance floor…as its been quite a while!
Extra: Cat skateboarding video – fun!
Friday evening film: I’ve only seen one film since I left on vacation over a month ago, so I headed down the mountain and see one last evening. I’m not thrilled with any of the current movies playing in our local theaters, although I’ll give it a go anyway. This time went to see one that’s called Divergent, starring Shailene Woodley, Theo James, Kate Winslet, Ray Steveson, Ansel Elgort, and Miles Teller…among many others. The synopsis: this is a thrilling action-adventure film set in a world where people are divided into distinct factions based on human virtues. Tris Prior (Shailene Woodley) is warned she is Divergent and will never fit into any one group. When she discovers a conspiracy by a faction leader (Kate Winslet) to destroy all Divergents, Tris must learn to trust in the mysterious Four (Theo James) and together they must find out what makes being Divergent so dangerous before it’s too late. Based on the best-selling book series by Veronica Roth.
I went to see this film with my neighbors, both of whom are college professors and astrophysicists, and we ended up enjoying it way more than we thought we would! As a matter of fact, Jeff gave it an B+, while Svetlana gave it an even higher A+ grade. I came in at B+ myself, and was thoroughly entertained. I suppose one could call this film teenage sci-fi, although with that being said, that certainly didn’t stop this senior citizen from being moved by it. The one part that felt too soft to me was the few final scenes, which left me wanting something a bit more broad shouldered…to match the rest of this big film. Apparently, this first film may be part of an upcoming franchise, which would be alright in my book. I would imagine that most of you won’t be rushing to the theater to see this one, although all three of us were happy to have been drawn in. Here’s the trailer, just in case you’re interested in getting a taste of what we had last evening.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity:
Atlantic Ocean: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico:
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
Eastern Pacific: The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Central Pacific Ocean: The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Here’s the 2013 hurricane season summary
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
North Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
South Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones
North and South Indian Oceans: There are no active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Interesting: World On Track for Hefty Temperature Increase This Century – If the world continues down its current carbon-spewing course, global temperatures will hit a staggering 4.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of the century, with potentially disastrous consequences for humanity, ecosystems and sustainable development, according to a new report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The report, “Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change,” is the third of three Working Group Reports, which make up the IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report on climate change. Produced by 235 authors from 58 countries, the report analyzed close to 1,200 climate scenarios investigating the economic, technological and institutional requirements for meeting global climate goals.
Based on this analysis, the report found that stabilizing global temperature rise at 2 degrees Celsius over preindustrial temperatures—the limit considered by many scientists to be safe — will require lowering greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by as much as 70 percent compared to 2010 numbers by mid-century and reaching near-zero emissions by 2100.
Between 2000 and 2010, global GHG emissions increased by the equivalent of 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), the report says. Half of all human CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years. Mashable recently reported that the amount of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere has, for the first time, exceeded 402 parts per million (ppm) — higher than at any time in at least the past 800,000 years. CO2 is one of the longest-lived GHGs, which means the emissions that have and continue to pump into the atmosphere will remain there for centuries.
Scenarios show that to have a likely chance of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to 2 degrees Celsius means lowering global greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 70 percent compared with 2010 by mid-century — and to near-zero by the end of this century. Ambitious mitigation may even require removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. IPCC says scientific literature confirms that even less ambitious temperature goals would still require similar emissions reductions.
“Climate policies in line with the 2 degrees Celsius goal need to aim for substantial emission reductions,” said Ottmar Edenhofer, one of the three co-chairs of IPCC Working Group III. “There is a clear message from science: To avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, we need to move away from business as usual.”
But don’t freak out just yet. Many fast actions for addressing climate change are proving to be more affordable than previously imagined, IPCC says. For example, actions to improve energy efficiency through new building codes and vehicle efficiency standards can significantly reduce emissions without harming people’s quality of life. A recent report by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) found that energy efficiency programs aimed at reducing energy waste cost utilities only about 3 cents per kilowatt hour, while generating the same amount of electricity from sources such as fossil fuels can cost two to three times more.
Renewable energy technologies, such as wind and solar, are becoming cheaper to produce and deploy.
Estimates of the economic costs of mitigation vary widely, IPCC says. In business-as-usual scenarios, consumption grows by 1.6 to 3 percent per year. Ambitious mitigation would reduce this growth by around 0.06 percentage points a year. However, the underlying estimates do not take into account economic benefits of reduced climate change.
The IPCC report also emphasizes the importance of quickly addressing emissions sources, which can reduce warming while producing co-benefits for human health and ecosystem impacts. Several recent studies have shown that addressing short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), including black carbon soot, methane, tropospheric ozone and hydrofluorocarbons, can produce significant near-term climate benefits while also improving human health, food security and energy security.
“Cutting short-lived climate pollutants [SLCPs] could cut the current rate of climate change in half by 2050, while preventing more than 2.4 million air-pollution related deaths a year and avoiding around 35 million tons of crop losses annually,” said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. “Cutting SLCPs is one of the best ways to reduce impacts over the next 50 years and beyond.”
Fast mitigation and co-benefits are particularly high where currently legislated and planned air pollution controls are weak, the IPCC report says.
“We have the technologies to cut the short-lived pollutants today,” Zaelke added. “This includes phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol and using other complementary initiatives such as the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, the only global effort focusing on these pollutants.”
In the United States, President Barack Obama’s Climate Action Plan has finally established some semblance of a comprehensive national climate change strategy. Some of the policies outlined in the plan, such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s impending carbon rules for existing power plants, could achieve even greater GHG reductions than previously thought — and at less cost. This is a good start, but much more needs to be done. Even if the U.S. one day achieves carbon neutrality, it will all be for naught if emerging economies such as India and China continue to spout CO2.